Okay, I'm writing this post, because I just read a blog article on the BiggerPockets blog about turnkeys working from an investment perspective. The problem is that the author has been investing for less than a year. It strike me as absolutely insane to be claiming to write from a position of authority when you've been landlording for less than a year. I mean, at that point you haven't even had a turnover, let alone multiple turnovers. (Caveat, this not intended to be a bash on turnkeys.)
I repeatedly see this, people with 1-3 years of experience landlording claiming to have it all down. But anyone can make money as a landlord the first few years, particularly when one starts with a shiny new rehab. The vast majority of these people with 1-3 years experience on some SFRs have not in any way shape or form experienced the long term realities of landlording or capital expenditures. (It's the, "You don't know what you don't know" principle.) My experience is that it takes about 5-7 years before the shiny new rehab starts to wear off and you get to experience the real "fun" of long term buy and hold.
I've been landlording for about 8 years, and I feel like I have some basis too speak from a position of authority (at least with regard to SFRs in my area), but even then I'm hesitant to be too cocky because the longer I do this, the more I learn. I'm certain there are people who've been doing this 10 or 20 years (e.g. Brian Burke, Ben Leybovich, Brandon Turner) who know far more than me.
I should qualify that I don't think this is an absolute rule. There are, of course, exceptions to any rule.
I guess at the end of the day, I'm curious to hear what others think. At what point do you have enough experience as a landlord that you can speak with credibility about the business?