Cheap properties available - Would You Buy In A Banana Republic?

Cheap properties available - Would You Buy In A Banana Republic?

Investor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 885 votes

Canary In The Coal Mine: Unfunded Liabilities Have Turned Illinois Into A "Banana Republic"

The state is buried debt, and hasn’t passed a budget in over 700 days. 100% of their monthly revenue is being consumed by court ordered payments, and the Illinois Department of Transportation has revealed that they may not be able to pay contractors (who are working on over 700 infrastructure projects) after July 1st if the state doesn’t pass a budget. To top it all off, the state’s credit rating is one step away from junk status, the lowest of any state. Because of these factors, Illinois may become the first state to declare bankruptcy since the Great Depression.

Governor Bruce Rauner has gone so far as to call his state a “banana republic.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-23/canary-co...

In other words, any financial calamity that occurs at the national level, would be magnified at the state level. The economy of these states would fall into a tailspin, which would make life for the average person exceedingly difficult.

So which states should you avoid? There are three factors you should look out for. There’s the amount of debt as a percentage of the state’s GDP, the amount of debt per person (debt per capita), and the state’s current credit rating.

The 10 states with the worst debt to GDP ratios are:

  • New York-22.71%
  • South Carolina-21.31%
  • Rhode Island-19.40%
  • Washington-18.83%
  • Florida-18.65%
  • Kentucky-18.50%
  • Illinois-18.45%
  • Connecticut-17.52%
  • California-17.18%
  • Pennsylvania-17.17%

The 10 states with the most debt per person are:

  • Massachusetts-$11,337.63
  • Connecticut-$9,297.33
  • Rhode Island-$8,919.27
  • Alaska-$8,516.41
  • New Jersey-$7,517.15
  • New York-$7,040.97
  • Hawaii-$6,194.64
  • New Hampshire-$6,152.00
  • Delaware-$5,962.86
  • Vermont-$5,259.69

And perhaps the most important factor is the credit rating of any given state. This gives you a good idea of how investors think a state will fare financially in the future, as opposed to a state’s current financial woes. According to credit rating agencies like Standard and Poor’s, as of last year the states with the five worst credit ratings are:

  • Illinois-BBB
  • New Jersey-A
  • Kentucky-A+
  • California-AA-
  • Connecticut-AA-

Though those ratings don’t look too bad, it’s important to keep in mind that those states have had sub-par credit ratings for a long time. There’s no indication that they’re going to get their act together any time soon, because they’ve been teetering on the edge for years. When the next wave of the economic collapse hits, these states (along with states that topped the first two lists, such as New York, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, South Carolina, and Connecticut) are going to be the first to feel the pain.

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Flipper/Rehabber · Crown Point, IN · Member since 2009 · 482 posts · 216 votes
9y

Ken,

I don't think enoiugh people realize how serious the problems are in Illinois. The property taxes are out of hand and starting July 1st in Chicago, citizens will pay a one cent tax per ounce on pop, lemonade and other drinks. That's adds $3.14 more, to the cost of a case of pop. The sales tax is 9%. So people will be paying what...over $10 for a case of Pepsi! They're doing their best to gouge the consumer whenever and where they can. But the people of Illinois continue to elect the Democrats year after year after year. They have ruined the state, along with the corrupt unions. Yes, there's a Republican governor, but Mike Madigan has kept his hands tied. I say buy in Indiana. Low taxes, landlord friendly laws and the state is economically stable. 

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  • Austin, TX · Member since 2017 · 61 posts · 32 votes
    9y

    @Account Closed

    As a new investor, I feel like I lack observance of these kinds of things. Macro-scale things that will have an effect on the everyday investor.

    This is a fantastic post. Thank you for sharing.

  • Hartford, CT · Member since 2017 · 39 posts · 16 votes
    9y

    @Account Closed great info. Being from CT it was this exact type of analysis that pushed me into note investing rather than SF or MF rentals in the state. Not to say people aren't doing it and making money - and REI is local and not necessarily macro - but it's hard to justify a buy-and-hold strategy in a state that is experiencing massive corporate job exodus, increasing taxes, ballooning debt, and net population loss. All of that translates into less demand for residential property and will pressure rents and property values. Perhaps this will evolve into a great opportunity in the future but It looks grim now.

    Edit: Just realized CT is the only state on all three of your lists above.

  • Property Manager · CT · Member since 2014 · 687 posts · 329 votes
    9y

    When I see these lists I remember the words of Warren Buffet: Be fearful when others are greedy; Be greedy when others are fearful. 

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Crown Point, IN · Member since 2009 · 482 posts · 216 votes
    9y

    Ken,

    I don't think enoiugh people realize how serious the problems are in Illinois. The property taxes are out of hand and starting July 1st in Chicago, citizens will pay a one cent tax per ounce on pop, lemonade and other drinks. That's adds $3.14 more, to the cost of a case of pop. The sales tax is 9%. So people will be paying what...over $10 for a case of Pepsi! They're doing their best to gouge the consumer whenever and where they can. But the people of Illinois continue to elect the Democrats year after year after year. They have ruined the state, along with the corrupt unions. Yes, there's a Republican governor, but Mike Madigan has kept his hands tied. I say buy in Indiana. Low taxes, landlord friendly laws and the state is economically stable. 

  • Investor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 885 votes
    9y

    States raise real estate rates and reduce services when they start failing. People start migrating OUT of those states. And to add high taxes to already high taxes, Seattle is trying to put an income tax together "for the rich". We know that always creeps down the line and landlords and property owners will pick up the tab. 

  • Investor · Cambridge, MA · Member since 2013 · 264 posts · 104 votes
    9y

    The Man @Account Closed Speakith The Truth.

    Property tax rates by state - those mentioned above as poor performers in terms of GDP and Debt do not score well...

    https://wallethub.com/edu/states-with-the-highest-and-lowest-property-taxes/11585/

  • Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2015 · 82 posts · 49 votes
    9y
    Illinois may become the first state to declare bankruptcy since the Great Depression. States are not able to declare bankruptcy, federal law. Municipal cites are, but not in Illinois, state law. A day of reckoning is coming with a reset, but the same system, people, power structure will still be in place so it will just happen all over again. Thankfully people can vote with their feet, and the states compete with each other for residents. Arizona, my state, Has benefited quite a bit from the migration from other states, and as a result it's real estate as well. The great state of Illinois, where the governors make the license plates
  • George SkidisPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Belleville, IL · Member since 2017 · 875 posts · 529 votes
    9y

    The population of Illinois has been decreasing annually for some time. We lose the equivalent of the population of the city of Peoria each year. Those moving out are typically Wage Earners looking for a better life and those with higher paying positions. Our children moved to Missouri years ago.

    On the other hand this is a great place to Buy and Hold property since the demand for subsidized housing is so great. Make sure you protest your real estate taxes all the time.

  • Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    9y

    Plan B is out of the state. Plan C is out of the country ... not buy and hold, buy and watch. However, as jacked up as CA budgets and politics are, it is home and it has been very, very good to me financially over decades. The one exception in CA that is favorable to REI'ers Prop 13 ... because of it, we have some of the lowest effective property tax rates in the nation. My parents are scared the politicians will attempt to repeal this proposition ... I am watching, but I think it is too much of a third rail in politics for them to touch it. That and fear of eliminating the tax deductability of mortgage interest, but a similar 3rd rail situation with that one too I'd say. We shall see indeed.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    9y

    I think in these states it hammers the rural areas .. and then population flocks ot the bigger cities were the jobs are .. I don't see Chicago becoming another Detroit anytime soon.


    And Boy have we been killing it in Charleston SC  the last four years.. that market is as strong as any in the country.. so like with all things I think it regional to a pretty big extent and regional within the state.

    Rural Oregon since the spotted owl and fishing died has been in recession depression status for 20 plus years now... but Portlandia is rockin and we crush it here..

  • Specialist · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    Canary In The Coal Mine: Unfunded Liabilities Have Turned Illinois Into A "Banana Republic"

    The state is buried debt, and hasn’t passed a budget in over 700 days. 100% of their monthly revenue is being consumed by court ordered payments, and the Illinois Department of Transportation has revealed that they may not be able to pay contractors (who are working on over 700 infrastructure projects) after July 1st if the state doesn’t pass a budget. To top it all off, the state’s credit rating is one step away from junk status, the lowest of any state. Because of these factors, Illinois may become the first state to declare bankruptcy since the Great Depression.

    Governor Bruce Rauner has gone so far as to call his state a “banana republic.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-23/canary-co...

    In other words, any financial calamity that occurs at the national level, would be magnified at the state level. The economy of these states would fall into a tailspin, which would make life for the average person exceedingly difficult.

    So which states should you avoid? There are three factors you should look out for. There’s the amount of debt as a percentage of the state’s GDP, the amount of debt per person (debt per capita), and the state’s current credit rating.

    The 10 states with the worst debt to GDP ratios are:

    • New York-22.71%
    • South Carolina-21.31%
    • Rhode Island-19.40%
    • Washington-18.83%
    • Florida-18.65%
    • Kentucky-18.50%
    • Illinois-18.45%
    • Connecticut-17.52%
    • California-17.18%
    • Pennsylvania-17.17%

    The 10 states with the most debt per person are:

    • Massachusetts-$11,337.63
    • Connecticut-$9,297.33
    • Rhode Island-$8,919.27
    • Alaska-$8,516.41
    • New Jersey-$7,517.15
    • New York-$7,040.97
    • Hawaii-$6,194.64
    • New Hampshire-$6,152.00
    • Delaware-$5,962.86
    • Vermont-$5,259.69

    And perhaps the most important factor is the credit rating of any given state. This gives you a good idea of how investors think a state will fare financially in the future, as opposed to a state’s current financial woes. According to credit rating agencies like Standard and Poor’s, as of last year the states with the five worst credit ratings are:

    • Illinois-BBB
    • New Jersey-A
    • Kentucky-A+
    • California-AA-
    • Connecticut-AA-

    Though those ratings don’t look too bad, it’s important to keep in mind that those states have had sub-par credit ratings for a long time. There’s no indication that they’re going to get their act together any time soon, because they’ve been teetering on the edge for years. When the next wave of the economic collapse hits, these states (along with states that topped the first two lists, such as New York, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, South Carolina, and Connecticut) are going to be the first to feel the pain.

     Yep, Hawaii and California are TERRIBLE places to invest in real estate! No profit there at all, none indeed.. ;)

  • Investor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 885 votes
    9y

    @Andrey Y. I realize that is "tongue in cheek". The issue isn't so much whether one can make a profit on a Fix & Flip currently in those areas, but more of the risk factor for Buy & Hold. I'm told you can make great percentages on Fix & Flips in Detroit, (which used to be wealthier than New York and at one time was the wealthiest city in America) but because of the way the politicians have run Detroit and other cities like Chicago and Los Angeles, the long term is shaky for them. Buying & Holding in those cities will be rocky for the foreseeable future, just based on their unfunded liabilities that investors tend to ignore and shouldn't, IMHO. "Everything is Rosey" (for now). If your future retirement is based on Buy & Hold, it is a risk factor.

  • Russell BrazilBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
    9y

    @Ken Minn I wouldnt worry too much about Massachusetts and CT's debt load per person as each is in the top 5 in median income.  The debt load measured against median income is not bad at all. South Carolina though in bottom 10 in median income is a good example of concern

  • Spring, TX · Member since 2016 · 243 posts · 203 votes
    9y

    If you're only looking at debt, you're only looking at half of the equation...I agree that Illinois is in trouble, among several other states (surprised Kansas isn't mentioned). People in office over the last 16 years seem to not believe in budgets.

  • Specialist · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    @Andrey Y. I realize that is "tongue in cheek". The issue isn't so much whether one can make a profit on a Fix & Flip currently in those areas, but more of the risk factor for Buy & Hold. I'm told you can make great percentages on Fix & Flips in Detroit, (which used to be wealthier than New York and at one time was the wealthiest city in America) but because of the way the politicians have run Detroit and other cities like Chicago and Los Angeles, the long term is shaky for them. Buying & Holding in those cities will be rocky for the foreseeable future, just based on their unfunded liabilities that investors tend to ignore and shouldn't, IMHO. "Everything is Rosey" (for now). If your future retirement is based on Buy & Hold, it is a risk factor.

     I am talking about Buy and Hold real estate. Gross rents of >$50K per property, and net cash flow of >$500/mo. is the norm. Where else will you get these numbers? Certainly not in a Midwest "cash faux" market, that's for sure. And I am not hating on the Midwest - I have investments there. Just being truthful.

    Investing in profitable and desirable markets is a "risk factor"? Please tell me how this is so.

  • Hartford, CT · Member since 2017 · 39 posts · 16 votes
    9y

    @Russell Brazil looking at any snapshot per person stat out of context doesn't have much value, especially when talking buy and hold. As the state debt grows each year and the population decreases debt load per person will increase while median income will remain flat at best and at worst decrease in concert with the exodus of middle class corporate jobs. The problem with CT unlike MA or IL is that it doesn't have an anchor metropolitan economy like Chicago or Boston as @Jay Hinrichs made a good point. Fairfield county might as well be a suburb of NYC as that is where the jobs are. And Hartford is a city on the edge of bankruptcy.

  • Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2016 · 515 posts · 247 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:

    I think in these states it hammers the rural areas .. and then population flocks ot the bigger cities were the jobs are .. I don't see Chicago becoming another Detroit anytime soon.


    And Boy have we been killing it in Charleston SC  the last four years.. that market is as strong as any in the country.. so like with all things I think it regional to a pretty big extent and regional within the state.

    Rural Oregon since the spotted owl and fishing died has been in recession depression status for 20 plus years now... but Portlandia is rockin and we crush it here..

     I agree.  Downstate Illinois and some Chicago neighborhoods are struggling with the erosion of the manufacturing base.  But downtown and the north/northwest side of Chicago are booming as the hipsters, yuppies, and basically every grad of a Big Ten school floods into the city.  

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    9y

    @Jeff Burdick  I was looking at providing some equity for a few flips In Wriglyville.. those pads were selling for 3 to 4 million each.. no sign of massive issues... its the same in most of the mid west rust belt cities you have socio and economic obsolesance and you have movement from those areas by those that want better schools and housing.. markets shift and change... just the way it is.

  • Investor · Willow Spring, NC · Member since 2009 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Andrey Y.:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    @Andrey Y. I realize that is "tongue in cheek". The issue isn't so much whether one can make a profit on a Fix & Flip currently in those areas, but more of the risk factor for Buy & Hold. I'm told you can make great percentages on Fix & Flips in Detroit, (which used to be wealthier than New York and at one time was the wealthiest city in America) but because of the way the politicians have run Detroit and other cities like Chicago and Los Angeles, the long term is shaky for them. Buying & Holding in those cities will be rocky for the foreseeable future, just based on their unfunded liabilities that investors tend to ignore and shouldn't, IMHO. "Everything is Rosey" (for now). If your future retirement is based on Buy & Hold, it is a risk factor.

     I am talking about Buy and Hold real estate. Gross rents of >$50K per property, and net cash flow of >$500/mo. is the norm. Where else will you get these numbers? Certainly not in a Midwest "cash faux" market, that's for sure. And I am not hating on the Midwest - I have investments there. Just being truthful.

    Investing in profitable and desirable markets is a "risk factor"? Please tell me how this is so.

    See also this about the performance claimed. You've made other claims about massive cash flow and appreciation, but it's simply not supported by the general characteristics of HI investing. To get gross rents of more than $50K per property, in HI, vs. in IL or NC... which you claim is the norm in HI... I look at that comment and wonder how much you put in. Apparently about $200K equity per property with 50% leverage. Your other post brags about less than 6% return on equity, which is very low compared to anything in NC, even in Raleigh. And I know Midwest numbers, for cash flow, are comparable to our apartments in Greenville, NC and elsewhere in NC and the Midwest. Gross rents of (I assume annual) $50K. And cash flow of $500/month? Man. I'd get fired for that. In NC, we see the 2% rule rarely lately, but it still is possible for patient investors who work hard for cash flow opportunities outside the big metro areas. More common is the 1% rule of thumb. And the 50% expense rule of thumb is reasonably accurate for most of NC, some places +/- 10% (40% to 60% range) depending on local circumstances and asset type. So gross rents of roughly $50K yields about $2,000/month in general on a $400K cash investment.

    Your claims of are exaggerated in the general case.

  • Crystal SmithPro Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Broker · Chicago, IL · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

     Great post;  great info.  The challenge I have w/ data like though is it's a macro analysis & most people including myself make investment decisions at a micro level.  For the majority of the states w/ supposed debt & credit rating problems there are cities within the state that are performing well great investment opportunities.   So back to the poster's question:  I'd invest in largest cities that make up the banana republic where there's evidence of growth, despite the bad news at the State level.  

  • Investor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 885 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Crystal Smith:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

     Great post;  great info.  The challenge I have w/ data like though is it's a macro analysis & most people including myself make investment decisions at a micro level.  For the majority of the states w/ supposed debt & credit rating problems there are cities within the state that are performing well great investment opportunities.   So back to the poster's question:  I'd invest in largest cities that make up the banana republic where there's evidence of growth, despite the bad news at the State level.  

     Hi Crystal, you make my point for me. Most Investors entirely miss the big picture and suffer large losses when things change. By making investments only at the micro level, long term investments suffer. Then people act surprised that they are caught "unaware". The last real estate crash was predictable, as is the next one. (Not necessarily the year, but the certainty.) By knowing the economic health of the states we invest in, we can mitigate our exposure when the market tanks the next time. If one's investment strategy spans 5 years or more, one needs to understand the fundamentals and that means asking "what is going on around us" world wide and nationally. 

  • Crystal SmithPro Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Broker · Chicago, IL · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    d that means asking "what is going on around us" world wide and nationally. 

    We use leading indicators to adjust our investments, but the indicators you've identified in this post aren't on our list.  The indicators we monitor are unemployment rates (but even this is something we consider at a micro level); interest rates & the stock market performance. 

  • Specialist · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Chris Martin:
    Originally posted by @Andrey Y.:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    @Andrey Y. I realize that is "tongue in cheek". The issue isn't so much whether one can make a profit on a Fix & Flip currently in those areas, but more of the risk factor for Buy & Hold. I'm told you can make great percentages on Fix & Flips in Detroit, (which used to be wealthier than New York and at one time was the wealthiest city in America) but because of the way the politicians have run Detroit and other cities like Chicago and Los Angeles, the long term is shaky for them. Buying & Holding in those cities will be rocky for the foreseeable future, just based on their unfunded liabilities that investors tend to ignore and shouldn't, IMHO. "Everything is Rosey" (for now). If your future retirement is based on Buy & Hold, it is a risk factor.

     I am talking about Buy and Hold real estate. Gross rents of >$50K per property, and net cash flow of >$500/mo. is the norm. Where else will you get these numbers? Certainly not in a Midwest "cash faux" market, that's for sure. And I am not hating on the Midwest - I have investments there. Just being truthful.

    Investing in profitable and desirable markets is a "risk factor"? Please tell me how this is so.

    See also this about the performance claimed. You've made other claims about massive cash flow and appreciation, but it's simply not supported by the general characteristics of HI investing.

    To get gross rents of more than $50K per property, in HI, vs. in IL or NC... which you claim is the norm in HI... I look at that comment and wonder how much you put in. Apparently about $200K equity per property with 50% leverage. Your other post brags about less than 6% return on equity, which is very low compared to anything in NC, even in Raleigh. And I know Midwest numbers, for cash flow, are comparable to our apartments in Greenville, NC and elsewhere in NC and the Midwest.

    Gross rents of (I assume annual) $50K. And cash flow of $500/month? Man. I'd get fired for that. In NC, we see the 2% rule rarely lately, but it still is possible for patient investors who work hard for cash flow opportunities outside the big metro areas. More common is the 1% rule of thumb. And the 50% expense rule of thumb is reasonably accurate for most of NC, some places +/- 10% (40% to 60% range) depending on local circumstances and asset type. So gross rents of roughly $50K yields about $2,000/month in general on a $400K cash investment.

    Your claims of are exaggerated in the general case.

     You know, you are the only user on BP that I have set to "ignore posts". My own fault for being curious what kind of nonsense you would post this time.

    Those are my numbers. Get over it. Somehow, you must know more about my portfolio than I do? Right. Stop trolling.

    Think of the most successful person in the world who comes to mind.. got it? Who is it? Do you think Elon Musk would come on an anonymous Internet forum and tell a person that he is is ********ting? No, because he has better things to do with his time, in fact, he would praise accomplishment.

    Instead of trolling, maybe you should be friendly and engage in normal useful discourse instead of hating on another's accomplishments.

    By the way, my Waikiki property has conservatively cash flowed $1200/mo. since I moved out in July '16. Rent growth and a VA loan tend to do those things ;) California SF SD and LA investors on here see similar numbers. I sleep just as well whether you believe us or not.

  • Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Crystal Smith:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:
    Originally posted by @Crystal Smith:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    d that means asking "what is going on around us" world wide and nationally. 

    We use leading indicators to adjust our investments, but the indicators you've identified in this post aren't on our list.  The indicators we monitor are unemployment rates (but even this is something we consider at a micro level); interest rates & the stock market performance. 

    + vacancy rates, affordability (all in historical context for that market), foreclosure (NOD, NOS, etc.) rates

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