When do you predict the next down cycle?

[Dustin Ruff]

Looking at housing trends over decades you would expect a down cycle every +/- 7yrs. With the last up cycle lasting the longest period of time around 10yrs. We're approaching year 8 right now so it's inevitable that the down swing is coming. I'm an optimist and I think we've barely reached the median so I see another record breaking stretch. I think it'll top out around 2022. When do you see it coming?

[Alexander Felice]

There are about 5 active threads on this at any given time on BP

You're looking at housing trends and see a 7-10 year cycle, but what you're really seeing is correlation from the short term debt cycle (which is 8-10 years........). There is not need for the housing market to cycle that quickly, just because it has in the recent past doesn't mean it has to. There are market cycles in individual cities all the time,  the last housing crisis was nationally systemic but it's unlikely to happen the same way again.

Also, you ask: when do you think it'll top out? as if you should be making more money at one point than another. If the saying "you make money when you buy" is true (and it is) then lets start getting optimistic for collapse as to buy cheaply.