Las Vegas Market | How much further to go and when will it Bust?

21 Replies

It's been awhile since I've been on here! 

Curious thoughts on Las Vegas market - I'm looking for a live-in home...   Little background.  Had owned a So Cal condo and a bad investment in a remote TN property that unfortunately got foreclosed on when I wasn't working for some time, and I had to get rid of the condo at the same time.   The rebuy period ended this summer -- I would of loved to grab a property several years ago but was blocked from doing so due to the foreclosure.. 

Now I'm pondering whether to wait until the market drops again or grab something now while it's still rising... Thoughts? 

I was intending to get a 4-5 bedroom house and rent out 2-3 rooms w/Airbnb which I'm doing now in our spare Apartment room and already have a 5-star reputation and such established...   

I wouldn't make large financial plans around a theoretical market correction of unknown time, and unknown impact.

If you're in it for the long haul then Vegas is a great place to move. I moved here early 2017 and it's far exceeded my expectations.

@Richard West

Is this your primary home or investment? For me, my primary home/residence, will be used to live in and will use buy and hold strategy. The primary is either rent or buy. Take the good with the bad for the long haul. Take the interest deduction on the taxes, and use as a tax shelter. 

I think Las Vegas is good for next 2-3 years with annual appreciation to the tune of 8-10%, which just happens to coincide with the completion of the $1.9B Raiders stadium. 

Terry

@Terry Lao   I bought a place there to move from Oregon and the sky high personal income tax.  and now that it looks like state income tax is not a deduction from Fed's its a double whammy so I think high income folks that make money in multiple states like I do .. will look at these states closely.. I don't care for Texas or FLA  and Washington is no income tax but I want to get out of the NW weather as well.

and Seattle or living in the island of the Puget sound is too expensive. compared to what you can buy in Vegas.

@Jay Hinrichs

Thanks for replying to post. I read many of your posts, and feel like I know you. Let's see, you bought near Summerlin to be close to your daughter, and away from the rainy weather. You've been in the business for 40 years, and started syndicate with $1M and leveraged for additional $4M. Grew the HML business to 13-14 people that nets $1M annual. Ventured into construction of new homes and did rather well.

I wrote down some of your notes in another post, and will try to duplicate. First, need to understand what the process takes.

Thanks.

Terry

@Terry Lao   good memory.. !! 

Tax's  weather  grand kids  home for the value.. plus I like the entertainment that is there.. although I don't personally gamble at all.. but the shows.. and all the events at the new multi purpose event center there are really great..   and of course the flying weather in Oregon we are grounded so much.. I look forward to day trips to Catalina and other cool fly ins

I'm pretty sure I've asked both of you to come hang out. I'm doing all the partying by myself here. For all the talk about how great vegas is, I don't see any boots on the ground boys ;)

@Jay Hinrichs

I believe you live in Summerlin area. My niche is 4plexs, but now it is higher prices, more competition, and less ROI. I am leaning towards SFR in Summerlin.

What do you think about SFR in the below yellow circle area? maybe 250-300k.

Terry

@Terry Lao   don't know it well enough to comment.. I just bought because I want to live there..

@Alexander Felice

I got you on my colleague list, and awaiting for next HOA board meeting in Las Vegas. Need to make it somewhat of a business trip for the write offs and mileage.

What do you think of SFR in Summerlin? Break even at best on cashflow and thus appreciation play.

Terry

if you're buying for appreciation, go for it. If you're buying for rental then breakeven is the best you can hope for. rental prices have a LONG way to go to make SFR profitable here IMO and the rate of rental increase seems far slower than the appreciation rate.

That said, summerlin is the place to buy, I didn't buy there but that's because I couldn't afford a place that would house my 3 giant dogs, in a nice new place, get a yard, and be in summerlin LOL 

I don't know that specific subcomplex but it's in the heat of good things for sure.

Cool.. Browsed through those links in between work calls a bit here...  Sounds good.. that's kind of what I was feeling to another 3 years or so but was hard to Guage with all the new changes/developments and such.  That being said their is a lot of new housing developments in the works here in Vegas. 

To be clear I'm here now (Las Vegas not Whittier as my profile says - I used to own a Condo in Whittier - Wish I still had.. bought for 180k - at 500k now w/new owners improvements) and have lived here for several years only renting due to the foreclosure.. I would have loved to grab a place several years back when I moved here being very aware that it was only headed up for awhile, but the foreclosure was too fresh...   

So I think I will start house-hunting...  just either drop it/sell once the market tops in 2-3 years or rent it out.  Probably sell and rent for a year or two until market bottoms out again and then rebuy...  (multiple at that point) 

It will be my primary but I will be also renting out individual rooms through Airbnb for extra income, rather than renting the entire home out... 

Thanks guys!

-Richard

I was looking near summerlin, more on the SW side as it's more convenient for both my GF and I and is developing nicely I believe. 

So keen to eventually live in Vegas! Such a value for money place to live! Henderson homes looks amazing 

It makes my list

https://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/10145/68178-top-real-estate-markets-to-invest-in-through-2020

Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs :

@Terry Lao   I bought a place there to move from Oregon and the sky high personal income tax.  and now that it looks like state income tax is not a deduction from Fed's its a double whammy so I think high income folks that make money in multiple states like I do .. will look at these states closely.. I don't care for Texas or FLA  and Washington is no income tax but I want to get out of the NW weather as well.

and Seattle or living in the island of the Puget sound is too expensive. compared to what you can buy in Vegas.

 I'm not sure Jay.. it seems like every time I go to Vegas, my net worth drops by $2-3K ;)

Originally posted by @Andrey Y. :
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:

@Terry Lao   I bought a place there to move from Oregon and the sky high personal income tax.  and now that it looks like state income tax is not a deduction from Fed's its a double whammy so I think high income folks that make money in multiple states like I do .. will look at these states closely.. I don't care for Texas or FLA  and Washington is no income tax but I want to get out of the NW weather as well.

and Seattle or living in the island of the Puget sound is too expensive. compared to what you can buy in Vegas.

 I'm not sure Jay.. it seems like every time I go to Vegas, my net worth drops by $2-3K ;)

 Never been an issue with me as I don't gamble.. but I have had a few dinners for 4 that were 2k  LOL.. cheap food and Vegas is a thing WAY in the past.. now its as expensive if not more than any place in the country or world.. at least the celebrity chef type places at the major Casino's.

I went into one fish restaurant they have this great display of dead fish and there is a price tag by the fish I thought that was price PER fish turned out to be price per pound.. so my 68 dollar snapper was 4 pds and I paid 300 bucks for one fish.. UGH..

There's actually plenty of decent cheap food outside of the strip :) ... Just the strip there that gets you.  

@Richard West   agreed I should have been more specific food in the big hotels name brand resturants is what I am talking about not off strip spots they are quite resoanble and some are very good as well. at least over in Summerlin where we hang out.

@Jay Hinrichs

Hmmm.............2k dinners, $300 fish meal? My gut tells me at least those meals were written off as business meals.

Just my .02 cents.

Terry

@Terry Lao  Nope.  Taking my kids to dinner

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