Campbell Method: Market Momentum

2 Replies

Has anyone read Robert Campbell's "Timing the Real Estate Market" and put his formulas to use?

I just finished the book and thought someone might have created a spreadsheet containing his formulas but a quick search didn't turn anything up. I could create that spreadsheet myself, but the fact that no one else has already shared one and the general lack of discussion regarding the Campbell method online was a little surprising to me and made me question it's value.

As someone looking to get into my first multi-family property in the next few years I'm not interested in speculation in itself and ideally I'd be investing in a property with positive cash flow, but if there's anything I can do to buy in at the right time and set myself up for some appreciation that's even better.

I live in Seattle currently and many people seem to think the market will only continue to appreciate, but that seems to be based on a gut feeling more than anything. In an effort to try to understand the factors that cause significant ups and downs in a particular market I came across Campbell's book. While it's a bit of a sales pitch for his newsletter, I like that he makes use of data from his 5 "vital signs" (Existing home sales, New home building permits, Mortgage loan defaults, Foreclosure sales, Interest rates)  to quantify trends rather than relying on the media and gut feeling to gauge the state of the market.

Narrowing down to 5 indicators is maybe an over-simplification, since circumstances will vary in every market, but I like the idea of being able to chart some key indicators and make discussions of where the market might be heading more tangible and less emotional.

Is this type of analysis a worthwhile part of a real estate investor's toolkit? Is anyone in the BP community making this type of analysis one of your considerations when you're looking to buy or sell a property?

You can go on 

bump to see if anyone actually uses his exact method to determine where to buy/sell and when.  I don't think anything Campbell says is revolutionary and he's very good (like most forecasters) to not make any clear projections, but it is put together in an easier to digest "formula"

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