It's now a buyer's market.

61 Replies

Market conditions are changing here in the Portland, OR market. Supply levels are increasing, which quickly gets framed  as "increasing supply". However, in reality, we're really seeing a slow down in demand and not much increase in actual supply. In my opinion, we won't really tell where the market is at until next year, after the seasonal change Portland has gone back to over the past couple of winters. 

Originally posted by @Mike Nuss :
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
Originally posted by @Brad Braun:

Not in my market, we are in a seller's market on par with 2006 levels.  Our seller's market is being driven by lack of inventory and amount of families moving here daily.  We just had the best September on record and are starting October off very strongly due to demand.  Days on market for most areas of Charleston is less than 7 days.

I love Charleston.. in fact its the only market I build in that buyers go to the trouble of looking up who owns the property ( me) and then finding my Oregon LLC then finding me and calling me.. these are new construction down town that I have going .. I have not had a property in Charleston I built in the last 5 years make it past 10 days on market past CO.. I sold my new build on 7 new st off market.

and unlike wholesalers I sold it for 300k more off market than I was going to list it for   well really the market is just so UNIQUE in this area and its world class.. this is not like many other markets.  unless your talking Palo Alto Cupertino or prime LA or prime east coast locations.

Charleston ROCKS  you have water on three sides limited land OOOOOLD housing stock.. its wonderful

Man, so many hidden nuggets of national markets and valuation knowledge in this silly little post  @Jay Hinrichs ; which probably wasn't even meant for knowledge or education. We need to get you back to a RareBird Investor Network meeting. You and I can just chat it out with a room full of hungry, question asking, real estate folk.....talk about how the underlying fundamentals of investment, capital, valuation, and flow/cycle of markets. Of course we would buy you beer :)

Of course Mike you know I love your gig there it brings true value.. so any time.. just ask.  

@Chris Mason it is most definitely not a buyer's market here in the Chicago suburbs. Most towns my buyers want have only 2-3 months of inventory, and some towns/property types have only 1 month of inventory. Multiple offers have been the norm all year, and I just sold a town house listing in Forest Park, IL for $12,000 over list in only 3 days on the market!

Vegas is seeing an up tick in inventory but still a sellers market. Overpriced listings are seeing price reductions. Homes priced correctly are still selling quickly.

Rent drop.

Just this morning saw an 1100sqft b+ class 2 bed quad unit with w/d & d/w that had been trying to get $1175 the last 2 months drop to $975/mo.  Thats a huge percentage in a small market with low unemployment.

Be sure to underwrite new buys with market rents!

I just sold my Seattle area duplex. We close this afternoon as a matter of fact. It sold for asking price, but we had to make quite a few concessions to the buyers to close the deal. Some of their closing costs, repairs, etc... We only received two offers total, and the first one got cold feet. My agent has been in the game for 25 years, and he specializes in selling investment properties. He said “if you had sold 9 months ago, you would of had a bidding war. The market has done a 180...the Chinese buyers are getting scared of a correction.” Can’t speak for the country as a whole, but the market in Seattle is definitely slowing down. I doubt it’s a crash, maybe just a knee jerk reaction from the Chinese backing out. But either way I’m glad I sold now. I’d planned on selling in a few years anyway. Now it’s time to take my money and BRRRR!
Originally posted by @Jonathan Hulen :
I just sold my Seattle area duplex. We close this afternoon as a matter of fact. It sold for asking price, but we had to make quite a few concessions to the buyers to close the deal. Some of their closing costs, repairs, etc... We only received two offers total, and the first one got cold feet. My agent has been in the game for 25 years, and he specializes in selling investment properties. He said “if you had sold 9 months ago, you would of had a bidding war. The market has done a 180...the Chinese buyers are getting scared of a correction.” Can’t speak for the country as a whole, but the market in Seattle is definitely slowing down. I doubt it’s a crash, maybe just a knee jerk reaction from the Chinese backing out. But either way I’m glad I sold now. I’d planned on selling in a few years anyway. Now it’s time to take my money and BRRRR!

 You still did perfectly fine, no reason for regrets. Nine months ago you would have listed it for less, and it would have been bid up to what it actually went for just now. There would have been fewer/no concessions, but that's small potatoes. Right now is a great time to list/sell a home.

For those that don't want to sell, it's also a great time to tap dat equity if that's on the to-do list; I've personally got that in the works as we speak.

Interest rates are where its at. Interest rates are still at historical lows. Its a far cry from the double digit interest rates of decades ago. As interest rates increase, and they will, then the ability to buy houses decrease. When the days on market stretch out past 90 days then the shift changes. In Austin, its still booming. In the news there was an announcement of a 52 story condo being built downtown and that is certainly an indication that we are still trying to meet the supply as that type product takes years to build. Demand is still very strong. 

No longer a question/hypothesis, I'm now declaring it a fact.

The market has turned, and this is not seasonal. 

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Originally posted by @Chris Mason :

No longer a question/hypothesis, I'm now declaring it a fact.

The market has turned, and this is not seasonal. 

I'd have to agree overall (and my analysis is for the SF Bay Area market). Tons of great properties are sitting on the market, and I've seen quite a few price reductions. Properties that are traditionally viewed as competitive will receive 3 or 4 offers (still above asking), instead of 8+ offers. 

One factor that could be contributing to this is buyer fatigue - particularly with the upcoming elections. Multiple colleagues have stated that buyers (particularly investors) are holding off until the election results to see how Prop 10 plays out. Inventory is still at about 1.5 month of supply levels.

But I'm predicting with huge potential exits next year (Airbnb, Lyft, Slack), the market may return to the "normal" frenzy with so many newly-minted multimillionaires.