Hi Guys,

Any finance/economist types able to bring this issue into focus for a long time real estate broker/investor:

Recently the 90-day interest rate rose above the 10-year rate. Normally, the longer the term the better the return. A higher short-term rate shows investor thinking weakness in the future. This inversion is, from what I have read, an indicator of pullback or recession in 1- to 2- years. Any truth to this?

From what I gather, am inversion that lasts longer than 90 days is significant. I bet the Fed will lower rates before it lasts too long.

Trade tariffs are my near term equity trade triggers. Anybody else buying the dip in car makers/ transportation index because of the new Mexico tariffs? I placed a couple buy limits today.

@Steve Vaughan ,

So it's not just for a day or two... ok.  I'll keep on the lookout.  Thanks for the info.

It's not just the 90 day rate which inverted the 10 year recently, other rates have been inverted for a couple months.  For example the 6 month versus the 5 year has been inverted for a month or two.

Whether it means a recession is coming in the next 1-2 years I am not qualified to speak on that.  I just thought I'd point out we've been in a yield inversion situation for a couple months at least.

I'm curious how other biggerpockets users think the yield inversion and a potential recession will impact home prices.

For long term economic forecasting, Armstrong Economics has a SaaS service called Socrates. Also the blog regularly mentions interest rate analysis. BTW- I have no affiliation with the site.