Sell my primary residence to avoid the coming crash?

7 Replies

All signs point to a crash.  I see it daily on BP.  Just look at the overvalued stock market and real estate market.  So how do I turn this into a win win situation?  I propose selling my primary residence, pocketing $450,000, waiting 8-9 months until the crash brings the value down to $200,000 and then re-purchasing back my house, or a neighboring house if its not for sale.

After I take away commissions and temporary rent I will pocket the $200,000 profit that will in-turn be reinvested into out of state F class areas, since the crash will force what used to be the middle class to move into the war zones to be able to survive.

Please find any holes in my plan.

holes in your plan:  it's 100% speculative

best advice you can get: stop listening to journalists and biggerpockets members for predicting future market events. 

@Michael P. You are assuming the crash will magically begin the day after you sell your property. What if the market doesn’t crash for another 3 or 4 years after selling your house... are you just going to rent that whole time when you planned to get your house back in 9 months?

Also, not every crash is going to be like 2008. That was a very extreme event. There is no data to support that your home value is going to drop all the way to $200k. can you possibly predict that your house value will go down by $200K? Like @Alexander Felice said this is purely speculative. If you want to turn it into a win win situation, build a fund of cash on the side, so IF the market "crashes" you will have cash to deploy. But in the mean time, I would just keep investing. But that's me.

@Michael P.

Instead of looking for holes in that plan I think it would save time to look for the rational, well thought out parts...

Hold on still looking.....

Still looking.....

Yeah I’ve got nothing.

If the market crashes that bad and real estate values get more than cut in half your best bet is probably bitcoin.

Good luck predicting Armageddon

There seems to be a doom and gloom business out there. Douglass Casey, sold millions of books all claiming the sky is falling. Here is the thing, will real estate go down? Yes, it always goes up and down.  So when ever the real estate goes down, the predictors of doom and gloom go out and pronounce to the world they are genius. Really, what happened was just as a broken clock is right twice a day, real estate prices go up down in cycles, so those who always predict it will go up, will be right, and those who always predict it will go down will be right.  One thing we all miss, the value of real estate stays stable. It is the value of the money that is fluctuating, and in general the value of money goes down over time, it is called inflation. It is the nature of how it works.  So if you think real estate is going to   go up,  you will be more right, more often than those always convinced it will crash. By the way, we are due for a down cycle, but because the last cycle did include a crash all we really should see is a small down cycle.   Here is the thing, if you buy real estate that cash flows, you can hang out, and sooner or later it will be going up again. 

This is clearly hyperbole.  But I'll bite.

Personally, I think you should sell your primary residence.  Tell your family that you are ready to live the big baller life, take the $450k cash, and buy a $1mm mega mansion because you deserve it.

Build a barrier wall outside your home that sits between the house and the newly constructed moat, which has been fully stocked with alligators.

Prepare for the revolution.

This post is obviously not serious, so i am not going to provide a serious response.

YES. Sell your house now. I suggest you also buy silver coins and guns. If the economy collapses you will have something worth trading.