The Next Big Short - imminent ?
Two articles of interest - one has to do with risk profile of underwater mortgages : literally underwater because of climate change impacts.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-mortgages/citing-climate-risk-investors-bet-against-mortgage-market-idUSKBN1WE0D3
Next is the survey of CFOs which shows that the level of pessimism and % of CFOs expecting an imminent recession has spiked recently.
https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/duke-fuqua-insights/cfo-survey-q3-2019?utm_campaign=ALL_20014-3&utm_source=IntDAR&utm_medium=email&utm_content=DukeFuqua
My take: let's get on with the recession so that we can move on to a better real estate buying environment.
I find the business optimism data to be a poor indicator. It's not a mechanistic theory indicating a particular weakness in the economy, it's just asking CFOs how they feel about the future. They have an incentive to be negative, because if they're negative and wrong - great! Nobody's going to be upset. But if they're positive and wrong (i.e. things went bad) heads will roll, with said CFO being #1.
Climate change is real, which is why I'm not buying any long term buy and holds in low lying areas.
