Silver Tsunami coming?

Question

As baby boomers and other retirees start to die off or at least move out of their owner-occupied home, this large supply of houses will hit the market. What will be the affect?

The article makes a good point that the affect won't be uniform across metros. Areas like Tampa may be highly affected (negatively) while areas with younger more urban environments may not be affected much at all.

It does make me want to hold off on buying a retirement home for the future.

https://www.zillow.com/research/silver-tsunami-inventory-boomers-24933/?mod=article_inline

Brent Paul · Answer

I think if anything it will boost ownership of younger families.  With the market being so crazy and houses selling fast I don't see it affecting it too much.  It's possible there could be an uptick in foreclosure depending on the local economy.

I have a cousin that lives near orlando and from what she tells me houses are selling the same day or the next day after listing for over listing price.  She tried buying a house and looked for over 9 months before giving up.  People were paying cash or way above listing price.  In the end she bought her parents house for below market.

Tough to say though.  It could go either way.  I think we will start to see some kind of change whether positive or negative in the next 10 years.  Time will tell.

Joe Splitrock · Answer

Supply and demand always equalize through price. So yes there could be price drops if supply exceeds demand. The word Tsunami sounds extreme. It is not like every old person will die the same week and there is a continuous supply of people getting old. As people get older, retiring from the north to warm place like Tampa is appealing.

I would be more worried about people in the Northeast selling their gigantic overtaxed homes and moving south. Younger generations see less value in having so much square feet and more appeal in Florida tax structure.

Jeffrey Kops · Answer

Interesting article, but as an agent in Tampa I think it makes some very broad assumptions. It assumes that Tampa and the other areas noted have relatively static economies, which is not true. Tampa and the "I-4 corridor" is growing and drawing more and more high tech jobs to the area. Downtown is being transformed into a vibrant residential area that is drawing more and more younger, affluent professionals to the area. Will there be an effect on local housing? most likely, but as I see it today I don't think it's going to as pronounced or detrimental as this article is implying.

Alan M. · Answer

Good insight from everyone. I agree that real estate is hyper local but demographics trends tend to be in bigger swaths. As boomers get old, we also have a decreasing supply of younger buyers - both from decreased immigration and from lower birth rates. These are long term trends that will take years to be fully visible and many of them can be accommodated by builders just building less - it's not like we don't know these trends are coming. But they are coming and we should be mindful of them.

Alan Grobmeier · Answer

@Steve K. there are a lot of non-boomer properties in sun city.  They are doing very well.  I’d stay out of the 55+ demographic for a few reasons, many of which you noted  Once you get outside of SCW (sun city west) prices go up in a hurry.

Mike Dymski · Answer

Focus on convenience...live, work, and play in the same general area.  Which demographic wants that?  Everyone...particularly retirees and millennials. Location matters.

Steve K. · Answer

@Alan M. Hmmm maybe I will rethink my strategy of snapping up 200 units in Sun City. Seriously though, the underlying prediction of a “Boomer Bubble” as I’ve heard it called, is sound I believe. But where this particular article is flawed in my opinion is in painting with way too wide a brush. I don’t think it’s accurate to say the large urban areas they mention will be affected but rather only certain communities within those areas. For example Tampa is probably a bad example, as I think it’s unlikely that the urban center will see an oversupply issue. Real estate is hyper local after all. I predict the areas that will be affected most are the 55+ communities on the outskirts of Tampa, that could see a double whammy of both a decline in the population they were built for as well as being located on the outskirts while the demographic shift is going in the opposite direction towards the urban center. So certain areas within the Tampa, Tucson, Vegas, Phoenix, etc. markets will likely be affected but those markets as a whole may keep experiencing growth. For example even right now the 55+ community near me is already a difficult place to sell a home, but the surrounding market is still hot. Basically I don’t see the “Boomer bubble” being significant enough to drag down the overall housing market in growing cities like Tampa and Tucson, but places like Sun City that were built specifically for Boomers, well, yeah less Boomers is bad for Boomer-specific  communities for sure. Bad time to invest in “active 55+ communities”, good time to invest in growing urban centers (and hospice care facilities).

Alan M. · Answer

Cleveland, as an example, has been experiencing population decline.

Nicole Heasley Beitenman · Answer

There may be a shortage of home owners, but that doesn't mean there will be a shortage of home occupants. I don't think Cleveland or Pittsburgh are going to have any problems. When young residents leave, more young residents will come along. Many of those young residents will become not-so-young residents.

Alan Grobmeier · Answer

@Alan M., it will depend on location and value of property.  In Cali you will probably NEVER see those houses come on the market.

Many are worth a Mil+ with Prop 13 property valuations from 1974 where the owner is paying $2000 a year in property tax.  They are generally paid for & would rent for $3k, $4k, $5k+.  What better way to fund your assisted living expenses?

Until those ppl die, there is no chance they are sold.  At least by the prudent.  Now, after they pass, it will depend on how smart the heirs are, and if they can get along.  ;-)

I see Cali is looking at repealing prop 13 for commercial properties next November.  I'd think it would probably pass.  After all, it's time to stick it to the rich.  Right?  ;-)

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