Recession affect on real estate prices

[Jack B.]

When you look at this chart, you see that overall there is often a mild impact on real estate prices but not always. Sometimes the prices remain unaffected and sometimes like with the 2008 crash, they can be significant but that was a purple unicorn. As a person interested in Las Vegas prices to expand out of my current area, I decided to look a little deeper at the housing price trend of Las Vegas and to my surprise, other than the 2008 crash there weren't any real dips in Las Vegas. Tale a look at the second chart I posted. This makes me feel more comfortable buying in Las Vegas right now...I'd be making 10% CoC return roughly with the right deal, with low probability of a significant price reduction in the future. I want to buy again now while rates are low and I have significant W2 income to leverage. I'm starting to think we are not facing another big crash like that, at least not for a while...and I'm starting to look at what just 4 rentals here in the Seattle area did for me..48K a year passive income, not counting appreciation...after all expenses...even budgeting for vacancy and capex.

[Bill B.]

@Jack B.

You're reasoning is why I bought a "Seattle market priced" property on Lake Minnetonka in MN. (My only out of state rental.) I get to write off visits and who knows, after its depreciated and paid off I could retire there.

The "easy money" has been made in Vegas....They've been saying for 5 years, at least.

I think its real estate future could be sunshine and rainbows. IF the people who move here don't turn it in to the high tax, high regulation, high cost of living copy of the places they are fleeing.

We have no income tax, low property tax, very low maintenance housing, very rare weather events, an insane array of entertainment and food options for our size, crazy cheap flights, and relatively light traffic.

BUT, we have had some massive tax hikes lately and yet they want more. They want to raise sales tax to among the highest if the not the highest in the county. Raise the casino tax, raise the "tourist" taxes. Car insurance is expensive, car license tabs are insane, the public school are not too good, but they still fight every move to support great charter schools. If you don't want to pay a $400 speeding ticket, be careful. You're probably going to be in an HOA where you hope you pay them to leave you alone, because they're bored and they love to write complaint letters.

It scares me when I see so many new people flooding in to real estate, its not 2007, and maybe most of them just talk and never do it, but they'd be more likely to chase me out of real estate than anything to do with Las Vegas. "Luckily" people have been talking about how bad it is and how much it swings (Even if doesnt.) that I think it has kept many of that new wave of investors out of Las Vegas, and that's actually kept me in.

To sum it all up without saying long story short, "If San Diego wasn't in California, I'd live there tomorrow..." But everything great about San Diego was great before California, and if they can screw up San Diego, they can certainly screw up Las Vegas. 

That should teach you to ask for my opinion. Good luck whatever you choose.