Is this a good deal? Feels like I'm missing something!

[Robert Walden]

I originally posted this deal in the BRRRR forum as a potential Lease Purchase deal. But, I was advised that it made more sense as a fix and flip. So, I reworked the numbers, and am posting it in this forum instead. [Note: I used to invest 25 years ago with mixed success, and am just now returning to real estate investing, now that I'm retired.] This will be my sixth deal. A couple made money. Two of them were complete rehabs. But, a couple were alligators too. And I'll admit, I'm a little gun shy now.

The Fix & flip Calculator shows me still in the black on this deal. And, BRRRR members advised me that the deal "may have legs" (under the right circumstances). The Seller even dropped the price an additional $5.k over the weekend, which makes it a potentially even sweeter deal! I seem to still be in the black. But, the numbers only leave $1,000. unaccounted for as contingency. And if anything unexpected happens, I'll have an alligator on my hands! (All though, I built an additional $8,000. into the budget for rehab "luxuries" and/or emergencies.... like if I have to replace the furnace, the water heater or the A/C evaporator after the water gets pumped out of the basement). So technically, I have $9.k for contingency, which is 18% of the total budget.

Yet for some reason, these calculations seem like there's only a thin margin for success, as outlined in this Bigger Pockets Fix & Flip Report (see link, below)!?! Are mortgage origination fees included/estimated? Are there any other "hidden" fees I've missed? Or, am I being paranoid? Will someone please take a look and confirm whether or not I've estimated this deal correctly, and that I haven't missed something important. Is this a good deal? Should I pull the trigger???

Thanks!
    :-)

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