STRs in Russian River Valley (Sonoma, CA)

[Brenton Ricketts]

While I realize the current environment and COVID-19 will impact the answer to this question, I've been looking at properties in the Russian River Valley for potential STR opportunities. For full context, see my previous post: House hack through COVID in a STR destination. Based on some preliminary research, the local regulations seem relatively STR-friendly (as long as the property is in the right zone), and AirDNA research indicates quite substantial revenue potential for a 2-3 bed single-family in the Guerneville area (source). However, there appears to be a lot of supply on rental sites like AirBnB, VRBO, etc. Any local owners/investors who could opine on how demand (throughout the year) compares with that supply? It makes sense that summer will be more in-demand than winter, but AirDNA shows a peak occupancy of 90% in May and a low of 42% in December. That "low" doesn't actually seem very low? What am I missing?

Thanks!