What to do with $1M now (in Bay Area)

[Anil J.]

I am stuck and not sure what to do. 

I live in the Bay Area. My primary home right now is one that I bought 50% share with another family member. It is sufficient for now (good schools and commute) and with own private living (in an ADU), so I don't have an urgent need to relocate and purchase my own 100% primary home. I have 1M on hand (half in stock market).

Long term, I would like to purchase a dream home in the Bay Area, but am waiting for the next down cycle for RE.

In the mean time, should I put some of the money into a SFH rental? I don't want to go too high, so am looking for homes that are less than 1M (that is the only way I could afford another 3rd "dream" home in the future). But going for <1M means I have to out of the Bay Area (e.g. Livermore).

The rents are decent *now* but it's not a high tech area, so I expect longer rental vacancies if I have it. What makes this worse is that we don't know what will happen with COVID. I expect Livermore to become a buyer market if government doesn't bail people out further.

What should I do?

Just sit tight another 6 months and see? or just go for it (a rental home)?

[JJ P.]

It does appear that we are poised for a downturn, but it hasn't happened yet.  Real estate is a big lumbering elephant compared to the nimble stock market, but it's still a gamble to wait to time the market for downturns and upturns.  

 If you know your market inside and out... what's a good deal; what the micro-neighborhoods are like; which streets bog down during rush hours; etc, then you already have the tools for swooping up a good deal.  Good deals and motivated sellers happen in all markets, the person who makes out is the person who has done enough homework to know what a good deal looks like.   Knowing your market area allows for safer purchases based on knowledge, not so much market timing.   It's like getting to home base one base at a time, instead of waiting for the home runs.   The home runs are the funnest, for sure, but investors look for opportunity on the doorstep in every market.