Foreclosures are coming back

61 Replies

OMG - talk about fake news!

The article reads to an uninfomed reader as if there is a waive for forclosures comming, which is very missleading without the context.

On a national level forclosures are down to about 1% of all sales - so a 3% increase in cases means 1.03%. If forclosures are up 100% (drmatic) we will be only at 2% of all sales.

I remember when were over 30% nationally, in some metro areas over 45% of all sales being distressed (short sale or forclosure).

Are we seeing more forclosures? Yes. Will there be even more in the next 12 months. Yes. But it will nowhere near what we have seen and many are hoping for. As others mentioned, we are short 4 million houses and owners have plenty equity to sell and avoid FC. Most of them anyway.

Context matters.

Originally posted by @Mike Baxter:
Well, it looks like the CFPB is going to save us all from ourselves.

************************

Fearing foreclosure crisis, U.S. watchdog cracks down on mortgage servicers


"We are very concerned and we're watching closely," said one of the people. "Our supervision team is robustly asking for more data than ever from servicers."

As of April 4, an estimated 2.3 million homeowners were in forbearance, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

This month the agency warned servicers to take "all necessary steps" to prevent a wave of foreclosures and rattled the mortgage industry

Home equity loan delinquencies rose 1.65 percentage points to 5.82% in the fourth quarter of 2020, the first rise since April 2020, the latest American Bankers Association data shows. "We remain very concerned about a potential wave of borrowers seeking assistance after the emergency protections expire later this year, and we will use our regulatory, enforcement, and supervisory authorities to prevent avoidable foreclosures," said the CFPB spokeswoman.



The Consumer Financial Bureau seems poised to take over this part of the role from the CDC. I recall reading something similar where the metaphor of the Bureau waiting at the 400 yard line ready to receive the baton came to mind.

Originally posted by @Mike Baxter:
Originally posted by @Marcus Auerbach:

OMG - talk about fake news!

The article reads to an uninfomed reader as if there is a waive for forclosures comming, which is very missleading without the context.

On a national level forclosures are down to about 1% of all sales - so a 3% increase in cases means 1.03%. If forclosures are up 100% (drmatic) we will be only at 2% of all sales.

I remember when were over 30% nationally, in some metro areas over 45% of all sales being distressed (short sale or forclosure).

Are we seeing more forclosures? Yes. Will there be even more in the next 12 months. Yes. But it will nowhere near what we have seen and many are hoping for. As others mentioned, we are short 4 million houses and owners have plenty equity to sell and avoid FC. Most of them anyway.

Context matters.

Just curious what you know that ATTOM doesn't? Can you distinguish between a turnaround trend and absolute numbers?

  

Don't be condescending Mike Baxter. People who subscribe to ATTOMdata, CoreLogic, BlackKnight or John Burns usually understand the context, which you fail to give here, which creates a false narrative, which leads me to the question do you not understand that or do you intentionally take it out of context?

Originally posted by @Mike Baxter:
Originally posted by @Marcus Auerbach:
Originally posted by @Mike Baxter:
Originally posted by @Marcus Auerbach:

OMG - talk about fake news!

The article reads to an uninfomed reader as if there is a waive for forclosures comming, which is very missleading without the context.

On a national level forclosures are down to about 1% of all sales - so a 3% increase in cases means 1.03%. If forclosures are up 100% (drmatic) we will be only at 2% of all sales.

I remember when were over 30% nationally, in some metro areas over 45% of all sales being distressed (short sale or forclosure).

Are we seeing more forclosures? Yes. Will there be even more in the next 12 months. Yes. But it will nowhere near what we have seen and many are hoping for. As others mentioned, we are short 4 million houses and owners have plenty equity to sell and avoid FC. Most of them anyway.

Context matters.

Just curious what you know that ATTOM doesn't? Can you distinguish between a turnaround trend and absolute numbers?

  

Don't be condescending Mike Baxter. People who subscribe to ATTOMdata, CoreLogic, BlackKnight or John Burns usually understand the context, which you fail to give here, which creates a false narrative, which leads me to the question do you not understand that or do you intentionally take it out of context?

I provided the link. It isn't my job to just copy and paste what other's research provide. That's called plagierism and is frowned upon. 

Did you actually READ the report? I suspect not. Now go, read it or not, I don't care. Thinking people actually read something before they comment on it.

 But, your opinion is welcome even if uninformed. ;-)

 I have provided my take on the point, specifically why a 3% increase of almost nothing is almost nothing. That's math.

You could have tried to make a counter point on the subject matter, but not even a single word - instead you keep choosing to make it personal, which does not reflect well on your character. 

This, Mike, is what's frowned upon here on BP. 

Unless I misunderstand something, the typical Fannie forbearance plan allows property owners to tack on additional payments at the end of their mortgages so the fact that 2.3 million took advantage of the program to maintain their lifestyles during the lockdown does not indicate that a wave of foreclosures should be expected. It's not like we will have 2.3 million balloons coming due this year or next. HELOC defaults - same issue. April 2020 was the peak of the panic over Covid. Now, that the light at the end of the tunnel is becoming clearer, no surprise that folks are picking up spending figuring they will be able to pay the amounts due back once employment returns to normal levels. A 6% default rate appears consistent with lifestyle maintenance rather than a wholesale slide down the shoot into penury.

Originally posted by @Scott Gaspar :

I thought foreclosures couldn’t start until June 30th?

Thats the misconception that all lenders and all loans are part of the foreclosure moratorium...  which they aren't. 

In california we are seeing an increase in 2nd loans foreclosing, sleepy seconds now coming in to play because these smaller "trust" lenders see a chance for the return if they foreclose.  

The foreclosure moratorium applies to "Federally" backed loans... fannie mae, freddie mac etc..

 

Originally posted by @John Slater:
Originally posted by @Scott Gaspar:

I thought foreclosures couldn’t start until June 30th?

Thats the misconception that all lenders and all loans are part of the foreclosure moratorium...  which they aren't. 

In california we are seeing an increase in 2nd loans foreclosing, sleepy seconds now coming in to play because these smaller "trust" lenders see a chance for the return if they foreclose.  

The foreclosure moratorium applies to "Federally" backed loans... fannie mae, freddie mac etc..

just to add to this....

Many states will be different... we wont see a lot of foreclosures (as in at the court steps for sale) in cali because of the level of equity a lot of people have, however we will likely see a decent increase of pre-foreclosures which is where I find my business, before it gets to the final stage.  We have people in default prior to covid who's lender just paused the process, seemingly not looking to be the bad guy foreclosing at this time... if these people were already behind, now add another 15 months of missed payments, they are screwed.. these dont fit in the category of the moratorium being pre-covid, just like Non-federally backed loans don't fit either..