Housing market continuing trends or stabilize

8 Replies

hi, I'm just getting started on my investing journey, and I keep being told that a crash is coming. I do understand that crashes happen and that the market trends up even after a crash. but I guess the question is do you experienced guys and gals believe one is coming soon (next 6-18 months) or are tends going to continue. 

I've been told to look at what the rich are doing and that they hard putting money only in physical assets and pulling out of real estate. but if that was true why would the market be so high still. 

Hi Eldon,

I only have 4 properties so not a big expert - but from what I've read, people can sit on the sidelines forever if they are constantly waiting for the perfect timing of a crash. So what I do is just make sure the numbers make sense to me with my calculations, if make offers where I think I'm getting a great deal no matter the climate of the market. It may just take more offers, but it's always a good time to invest and buy RE! Good luck.

Danny

First each area is different.  If you are wanting to buy a place, look for a place where the numbers make sense and buy it.  I bought in an area where prices have increased a lot. Then prices started to stabilize (still increasing, but at a more normal rate).  This last 6 months, they've taken off again.  Another town where I have places, the price of homes hasn't increased in more than 15 years as they are overbuilding.  They haven't gone down, but they haven't really gone up.

I expect things to slow down but not go backwards. ie, some of the over ask craziness will likely go away as inventories start to rise. There is still a housing shortage in the country as a whole and that will take several years to rectify itself. As always, there are still "good deals" out there, just not as common as they were 10 years ago. I just don't see a "crash" coming in the near future. Everyone can make predictions about the future, some will be right, most won't be.

ok, so you think we likely will see a plateau more than a crash. that seems to rectify what I keep being told. I hear that there is a shortage and that drives prices higher and others say that there is unsustainable growth and that economy  can't support it and that will send us into a crash. 

a plateau seems to be a likely outcome if both are true

If the housing demand was in a particular segment, I'd be more concerned as economic factors would impact it more. However, there's demand across all segments of housing from apartments to SFR of all values. If interest rates rise (they will) then some houses may become less affordable for some people but they'll just set their sights lower. Even if interest rates go up 3% from their present rates, that's still pretty low from a historical perspective. For anyone that's just waiting, my guess is that 3 years from now it'll be a "coulda, woulda, shoulda" situation. Don't most of us wish we had bent over backwards in 2010 and 2011 to buy up anything we could get funding for? Don't do stupid stuff but if it works, it works.

@Eldon Pixley my opinion is that trying to time the market is a fools errand. As others have said on here, most people parroting the “there is going to be a crash” very self only include any data to back that claim up. From doing my own research I fall in the “it’s an inventory problem” camp. Ans so from the data I’ve seen.

It is challenge anyone who try’s to tell you “this is like 2008” because it clearly is not, and to ask them what data they are basing their claim off. If they are just parroting some talking point I’d disregard what they said. If they actually have some data or key points, listen opening and see if it checks out to you.