Preparing to capitalize on the next market collapse

Preparing to capitalize on the next market collapse

Contractor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2010 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes

Every day I spend some time in the morning getting up to speed on the latest state of the real estate market by reading various news outlets, listening to economists, looking at data around inflation/inventory/rates, etc. There are 2 things that I've gathered from the last couple of months that everybody seems to agree on:

1. Nobody knows for sure where the residential real estate market is headed.

2. Everybody seems to agree that there is serious pain ahead in the commercial real estate market.

As far as I can tell, the challenges in commercial real estate are centered around a few factors:

 -Many loans coming to due in 2023 (about $270 billion worth), meaning owners will be forced to refinance or sell this year.

 -Vacancy rates are high (specifically in office and retail, also depending on the region). AND interest rates are high. Meaning that if an owner is forced to refinance when their loan matures, they will get stuck with a much higher payment on a property generating much less income due to vacancies.

 -Vacancy rates in office are already showing some serious blows to office valuations. It may be an anomaly but just last week it was reported that an office building in San Francisco worth $300,000,000 in 2019 is expected to sell for $60,000,000 today. Ouch. Link

 -The vacant office space is causing a ripple effect. If a 100,000 square foot office building is sitting 35% vacant in the heart of Manhattan or San Francisco, that is not just a problem for the office building owner. The surrounding retail shops who depend on those office employees as customers are hurting as well. And if they don't have as many customers, they are less likely to be able to afford their rent. Which is not good for the owners of those retail buildings either.

-According to various reports, real estate accounts for ~25% of US banks books and as much as 65% for smaller banks. If commercial real estate owners start walking away from their buildings, these smaller banks could also be in big trouble.

As of now they say most debt on commercial real estate is being paid as agreed. But this feels like a "calm before the storm" to me.

Would love to hear the perspective of those who are wiser than me on what the future holds in commercial real estate. I can't help but think that we are about to experience a lot of pain and a lot of opportunity in commercial real estate.

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Investor · Scottsdale Austin Tuktoyaktuk · Member since 2021 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Scott E.:

Every day I spend some time in the morning getting up to speed on the latest state of the real estate market by reading various news outlets, listening to economists, looking at data around inflation/inventory/rates, etc. There are 2 things that I've gathered from the last couple of months that everybody seems to agree on:

1. Nobody knows for sure where the residential real estate market is headed.

2. Everybody seems to agree that there is serious pain ahead in the commercial real estate market.

You are being too rational. We've passed the point of rationality long ago (2008). (actually, long before that but most of you weren't around then).

What does every government want? To be re-elected.

As such, yes there will be some pain in the Commercial Sector but recovery in the Residential. Banks will belch money, bleed and merge, people that should go to jail for fraud and deception won't. The blame will be placed on China and imports or on Russia and oil, but life will go on much as it has since World War Two. No real economic correction.

With fractionalized banking and the economy dependent on debt spending instead of savings, and an election looming, the government won't allow things to fail and everyone will adjust in short order. There is no longer a need to print money since they can just add another zero to a spreadsheet at the Treasury. 

Ya'll are talking like the Fed, Treasury, Banking System & investors are rational, on our side and trying to do the right thing for the American people, but they aren't. They will do what is necessary to get re-elected, make money, escape jail, whatever it takes and enough of you will vote for a repeat of the current government to keep things going like a clown at a circus twirling plates on sticks. 


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  • Flipper/Rehabber · Rochester, NY · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    3y

    Excellent post @Scott E.  this reminds me of 2008 when the business leaders were saying there was zero visibility. That’s the problem even with commercial real estate. We know there is going to be pain but we don’t know how much or how it’s going to happen. Are owners going to go into foreclosure? Are they going to bring in more money in order to refinance the remainder?  Are they going to be able to even sell?


    Cap rates seem to be holding steady in spite of the high interest rates. It doesn’t make sense to me.

    I don’t have the fog lights (the information or mental acuity) to pierce through the cloud of uncertainty.  So I don’t know that I could identify what is truly a deal until after the fog lifts. 

  • Tom GimerBusiness Member
    DMV · Member since 2017 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    3y

    @Scott E. Last week I spoke with a commercial RE broker of 40+ years in the DC metro market and he said it's going to be a bloodbath.

    Gimer Law516 Reviews
  • Contractor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2010 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Larry Turowski:

    Excellent post @Scott E.  this reminds me of 2008 when the business leaders were saying there was zero visibility. That’s the problem even with commercial real estate. We know there is going to be pain but we don’t know how much or how it’s going to happen. Are owners going to go into foreclosure? Are they going to bring in more money in order to refinance the remainder?  Are they going to be able to even sell?


    Cap rates seem to be holding steady in spite of the high interest rates. It doesn’t make sense to me.

    I don’t have the fog lights (the information or mental acuity) to pierce through the cloud of uncertainty.  So I don’t know that I could identify what is truly a deal until after the fog lifts. 


    Well said. I'm feeling the same way. I've talked to some commercial brokers who say deals are still selling. But lately properties are generally selling to either owner-users, or buyings trying to place 1031 funds.

  • Contractor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2010 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Tom Gimer:

    @Scott E. Last week I spoke with a commercial RE broker of 40+ years in the DC metro market and he said it's going to be a bloodbath.


     Scary. This is where the opportunities will surface. But how bad it will get or how long it will last is not clear...

  • Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    3y

    Yeah. It’s really weird because a big crash has never come from where EVERYONE  saw it coming. Sure, people remember thinking they saw the 2008 crash coming. But if it sent happened they wouldn’t remember thinking it was. And maybe a few did. But not 60-90% of the people in the field. 

    We’re basically sitting here saying “obviously these people who acquired $100 million assets are going to get crushed sometime in the future…” like we see something they don’t. And with months if not years they won’t be able to find a solution. 

    I could certainly see small syndications that did their first deal in the last 18-24 months getting hurt, at least the investors, I’m sure the syndicators will be fine. Heck they’ll be probably raising money the next day. SMH. 

  • Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2021 · 9k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    3y

    All this means is there is more opportunity out there to buy. You could spend all your time researching, or talking to sellers directly and seeing the distress first hand. 

  • Investor · Member since 2021 · 113 posts · 56 votes
    3y

    Buy properties now. Same concept as stocks. Buy when no one else is. 

  • Investor · Plano, TX · Member since 2016 · 2 posts · 1 vote
    3y

    Everyone knows it's going to be bad, but not how bad. Keep actively looking, analyzing and you may find right opportunity. Be prepared. 

    good luck! 

  • Contractor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2010 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Bill B.:

    Yeah. It’s really weird because a big crash has never come from where EVERYONE  saw it coming. Sure, people remember thinking they saw the 2008 crash coming. But if it sent happened they wouldn’t remember thinking it was. And maybe a few did. But not 60-90% of the people in the field. 

    We’re basically sitting here saying “obviously these people who acquired $100 million assets are going to get crushed sometime in the future…” like we see something they don’t. And with months if not years they won’t be able to find a solution. 

    I could certainly see small syndications that did their first deal in the last 18-24 months getting hurt, at least the investors, I’m sure the syndicators will be fine. Heck they’ll be probably raising money the next day. SMH. 


    That's a fair point. The people who buy these buildings are no doubt very sophisticated and have massive teams behind them who understand economics better than any of us.

    But just because they are sophisticated and have teams doesn't mean that whales can't get burned too. Unless these owners and developers have a massive emergency fund, OR if their bank can offer some time of a modification or a forbearance on the debt, I don't see a way out.

  • Contractor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2010 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Eliott Elias:

    All this means is there is more opportunity out there to buy. You could spend all your time researching, or talking to sellers directly and seeing the distress first hand. 


    For sure. The point of this post is to discuss the opportunities ahead. I don't spend all of my time researching. But I do spend at least an hour a day. It's important to keep your hand on the pulse, especially in these market conditions.

  • Member since 2020 · 671 posts · 937 votes
    3y

    Yeah.  This commercial thing is REALLY weird for me.   It doesn't even sound like rent asking prices are really dropping for commercial office properties which have really high vacany rates right now because it'll make the building valuations look bad with low rents. 

    So, just wait and hope?  Is that really the strategy?  This must be why I'm not very good at poker because I'd be dropping my rents, lowering my sales price, whatever, to get out of some of these positions that I think some people have to be in right now...

  • Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    3y

    And the oblivious Fed continues to raise rates and discuss how sound the banking system is...

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Scott E.:
    Quote from @Bill B.:

    Yeah. It’s really weird because a big crash has never come from where EVERYONE  saw it coming. Sure, people remember thinking they saw the 2008 crash coming. But if it sent happened they wouldn’t remember thinking it was. And maybe a few did. But not 60-90% of the people in the field. 

    We’re basically sitting here saying “obviously these people who acquired $100 million assets are going to get crushed sometime in the future…” like we see something they don’t. And with months if not years they won’t be able to find a solution. 

    I could certainly see small syndications that did their first deal in the last 18-24 months getting hurt, at least the investors, I’m sure the syndicators will be fine. Heck they’ll be probably raising money the next day. SMH. 


    That's a fair point. The people who buy these buildings are no doubt very sophisticated and have massive teams behind them who understand economics better than any of us.

    But just because they are sophisticated and have teams doesn't mean that whales can't get burned too. Unless these owners and developers have a massive emergency fund, OR if their bank can offer some time of a modification or a forbearance on the debt, I don't see a way out.

     My old aviation partner has a building in downtown Portland.. its been affected by the social issues that have prevailed in Portland  IE de fund the Police BLM Antifa  spineless major and homeless.. we were having lunch and he mentioned  he can simply give the bank 1 million and walk Which he is seriously considering doing.. So this is just one guy one building.. I think there will be all sorts of work outs work arounds here are the keys etc.. so banks are going to get stressed or whoever holds the debt.  And of course investors that are in syndicated deals that tank  they will get wiped out. 

  • Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    3y

    What’s the old saying @Scott E.?  If you can’t make the payments on a 100k loan you have a problem. If you can’t make the payments on a 100M loan, the bank has a problem.

    I guess each bank gets to decide if they would rather accept the current terms and payments or accept a $10-20-$30 million loss by calling it due and trying to sell. 

    These battles will be fought and decision will be made waaaaay above my skill/risk level. 

  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Scott E.:

    Every day I spend some time in the morning getting up to speed on the latest state of the real estate market by reading various news outlets, listening to economists, looking at data around inflation/inventory/rates, etc. There are 2 things that I've gathered from the last couple of months that everybody seems to agree on:

    1. Nobody knows for sure where the residential real estate market is headed.

    2. Everybody seems to agree that there is serious pain ahead in the commercial real estate market.

    As far as I can tell, the challenges in commercial real estate are centered around a few factors:

     -Many loans coming to due in 2023 (about $270 billion worth), meaning owners will be forced to refinance or sell this year.

     -Vacancy rates are high (specifically in office and retail, also depending on the region). AND interest rates are high. Meaning that if an owner is forced to refinance when their loan matures, they will get stuck with a much higher payment on a property generating much less income due to vacancies.

     -Vacancy rates in office are already showing some serious blows to office valuations. It may be an anomaly but just last week it was reported that an office building in San Francisco worth $300,000,000 in 2019 is expected to sell for $60,000,000 today. Ouch. Link

     -The vacant office space is causing a ripple effect. If a 100,000 square foot office building is sitting 35% vacant in the heart of Manhattan or San Francisco, that is not just a problem for the office building owner. The surrounding retail shops who depend on those office employees as customers are hurting as well. And if they don't have as many customers, they are less likely to be able to afford their rent. Which is not good for the owners of those retail buildings either.

    -According to various reports, real estate accounts for ~25% of US banks books and as much as 65% for smaller banks. If commercial real estate owners start walking away from their buildings, these smaller banks could also be in big trouble.

    As of now they say most debt on commercial real estate is being paid as agreed. But this feels like a "calm before the storm" to me.

    Would love to hear the perspective of those who are wiser than me on what the future holds in commercial real estate. I can't help but think that we are about to experience a lot of pain and a lot of opportunity in commercial real estate.


     - Residential real estate would be just fine. Every month we have new record inventory low supply in many cities. In my opinioN
    we would reach new high in 2025.

    - in Office space, the problem is actually also very limited, it's very limited to office tech sector and finance banking sector mostly, so it does affect the office in manhattan or new york city or chicago

    - further data is showing, office vacancy is still positive for office built after 2015, while office before 2015 has lot of vacancies, especially the one built in 1980s.

    - total vacancy rate was moving from stable 12% to 16-17% these days for office space. 

    - Treasury is already announced by 2024 they would buyback US bonds, less risk for CRE as rate would be lower.

  • Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Bill B.:

    What’s the old saying @Scott E.?  If you can’t make the payments on a 100k loan you have a problem. If you can’t make the payments on a 100M loan, the bank has a problem.

    I guess each bank gets to decide if they would rather accept the current terms and payments or accept a $10-20-$30 million loss by calling it due and trying to sell. 

    These battles will be fought and decision will be made waaaaay above my skill/risk level. 


     It's not that simple Bill. 

    Those commercial loans, on the books of the bank, call it a $35m loan, while performing have an effect similar to if it was cash in the vault, not exactly but much to that effect for simplicity sake. 

    Now say there is a major issue, it's in dystopian "snow-flake-vile" and has lost considerable monetization so owner pulls trigger on Strategic-Default. Now the bank has the property and get's it sold, but at only $15m.     Here is the issue, that is a $20m "lose" the bank has to figure out how to wizard on the books. And it has a ripple effect because they operate on fractional lending, which is balanced by the books NOT actual money in the vault, so this $20m loss ALSO effects it's standing on capacity to carry and service an additional $180m or so in lending.    Remember that old term of "Stress Test's", yeah, that's what it speaks to. 

    Now you multiply this by just a handful of instances, not tens of thousands but tens, and all of a sudden numbers are touching on a billion+. All of a sudden that "Stress Test" is going from green, to yellow, skipping orange and throwing RED RED RED. 

    And what happens? All of a sudden there is talk of regulators "helping" that regional lender by "relieving them" of a billion in ACTIVE serviced accounts and handing them to..... drum-role-please..... J.P. FREAKING Morgan...... 

    Yup......

    That's how I see this playing out. Nothing more then a consolidation in banking. And there isn't a darn thing those regional banks can do. 

    And that is how it works, J.P. doesn't take the actual problem accounts, no, were all told what a great "helpful" thing it is that they are taking a big hunk of what is working because then, at a smaller size it "mitigates risk exposure" and we gobble it up. 

    And then if it becomes a big enough problem they will issue out a new TARP, so WE will fund it, and again be told how it's a good thing for all of us that J.P. is getting a few trillion in additional accounts who specifically DIDN'T want to work with J.P. in the first place, and the tax payer will supplement the regional lenders to "get their house in order". Or, what's left of that house after J.P. was handed half the best parts of it. 

    If they wanted to the whole situation could be prevented NOW, today, in less then 1 week. Via establishing a special "inflation impact fund" that provides a deferred off-set 7yr loan to commercial property operators that will bridge the difference in current financing rate and there new rate. This would be tacked onto the back end as a balloon payment, no pre-payment penalty.    It wouldn't take that much $, about what we send Ukraine in 1 week, and it buys commercial real estate 7 years breathing room to get things sorted and leveled out.    But have we heard 1-word of something like this? Anything like this?    This issue has LONG been coming, everyone literally EVERYONE in commercial real estate sees this freight train coming to end of the tracks, it's simple math. 

  • Investor · Scottsdale Austin Tuktoyaktuk · Member since 2021 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Scott E.:

    Every day I spend some time in the morning getting up to speed on the latest state of the real estate market by reading various news outlets, listening to economists, looking at data around inflation/inventory/rates, etc. There are 2 things that I've gathered from the last couple of months that everybody seems to agree on:

    1. Nobody knows for sure where the residential real estate market is headed.

    2. Everybody seems to agree that there is serious pain ahead in the commercial real estate market.

    You are being too rational. We've passed the point of rationality long ago (2008). (actually, long before that but most of you weren't around then).

    What does every government want? To be re-elected.

    As such, yes there will be some pain in the Commercial Sector but recovery in the Residential. Banks will belch money, bleed and merge, people that should go to jail for fraud and deception won't. The blame will be placed on China and imports or on Russia and oil, but life will go on much as it has since World War Two. No real economic correction.

    With fractionalized banking and the economy dependent on debt spending instead of savings, and an election looming, the government won't allow things to fail and everyone will adjust in short order. There is no longer a need to print money since they can just add another zero to a spreadsheet at the Treasury. 

    Ya'll are talking like the Fed, Treasury, Banking System & investors are rational, on our side and trying to do the right thing for the American people, but they aren't. They will do what is necessary to get re-elected, make money, escape jail, whatever it takes and enough of you will vote for a repeat of the current government to keep things going like a clown at a circus twirling plates on sticks. 


  • Member since 2023 · 27 posts · 42 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @Scott E.:

    Every day I spend some time in the morning getting up to speed on the latest state of the real estate market by reading various news outlets, listening to economists, looking at data around inflation/inventory/rates, etc. There are 2 things that I've gathered from the last couple of months that everybody seems to agree on:

    1. Nobody knows for sure where the residential real estate market is headed.

    2. Everybody seems to agree that there is serious pain ahead in the commercial real estate market.

    You are being too rational. We've passed the point of rationality long ago (2008). (actually, long before that but most of you weren't around then).

    What does every government want? To be re-elected.

    As such, yes there will be some pain in the Commercial Sector but recovery in the Residential. Banks will belch money, bleed and merge, people that should go to jail for fraud and deception won't. The blame will be placed on China and imports or on Russia and oil, but life will go on much as it has since World War Two. No real economic correction.

    With fractionalized banking and the economy dependent on debt spending instead of savings, and an election looming, the government won't allow things to fail and everyone will adjust in short order. There is no longer a need to print money since they can just add another zero to a spreadsheet at the Treasury. 

    Ya'll are talking like the Fed, Treasury, Banking System & investors are rational, on our side and trying to do the right thing for the American people, but they aren't. They will do what is necessary to get re-elected, make money, escape jail, whatever it takes and enough of you will vote for a repeat of the current government to keep things going like a clown at a circus twirling plates on sticks. 


    Great post
  • Rental Property Investor · Ithaca, NY · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    3y

    @Scott E.

    “The best time to buy real estate was 5 years ago.” - All of us 5 years from now.

  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @James Hamling:

    If they wanted to the whole situation could be prevented NOW, today, in less then 1 week. Via establishing a special "inflation impact fund" that provides a deferred off-set 7yr loan to commercial property operators that will bridge the difference in current financing rate and there new rate. This would be tacked onto the back end as a balloon payment, no pre-payment penalty.    It wouldn't take that much $, about what we send Ukraine in 1 week, and it buys commercial real estate 7 years breathing room to get things sorted and leveled out.    But have we heard 1-word of something like this? Anything like this?    This issue has LONG been coming, everyone literally EVERYONE in commercial real estate sees this freight train coming to end of the tracks, it's simple math. 


     very smart answer James LOL 

    I guess they  already make scenario like this even before. In america everything is pre-positioned/pre-configured.

    So in one dinner table in 2019 Powell may speak to Chief of President blablabla "bro we have to have increase interest rate", how do you wanna do it ? The bro Powell said, I can self create a "fake inflation" by printing massive Dollar..........and then the Chief ask, and after that ? the Bro Powell said oh and then after that, there would be inflation........then what Chief said ......then I would increase the interest rate for two three years, dumping our asset and dollar would skyrocket............then the Chief ask "but that would trigger Bank collapse No ?"

    Then bro powell said, yes eventually, but we have our friend JP Morgan, that would act as last buyer, to buy all those banks.... hahaha LOL


    NOw Mr Powell said, in two years, I would ask Treasury to buyback our bonds again LOL 

    It has been written in US econonomic history since 1930, last time I read in history book LOL



    there's nothing that's accidental in planet America, everything is already calculated.


    think Fed is stupid enough to over money printing ? nope, it's designed that way

  • Mike BybeePro Member
    Investor · Member since 2018 · 9 posts · 5 votes
    3y
    Quote from @James Hamling:
    Quote from @Bill B.:

    What’s the old saying @Scott E.?  If you can’t make the payments on a 100k loan you have a problem. If you can’t make the payments on a 100M loan, the bank has a problem.

    I guess each bank gets to decide if they would rather accept the current terms and payments or accept a $10-20-$30 million loss by calling it due and trying to sell. 

    These battles will be fought and decision will be made waaaaay above my skill/risk level. 


     It's not that simple Bill. 

    Those commercial loans, on the books of the bank, call it a $35m loan, while performing have an effect similar to if it was cash in the vault, not exactly but much to that effect for simplicity sake. 

    Now say there is a major issue, it's in dystopian "snow-flake-vile" and has lost considerable monetization so owner pulls trigger on Strategic-Default. Now the bank has the property and get's it sold, but at only $15m.     Here is the issue, that is a $20m "lose" the bank has to figure out how to wizard on the books. And it has a ripple effect because they operate on fractional lending, which is balanced by the books NOT actual money in the vault, so this $20m loss ALSO effects it's standing on capacity to carry and service an additional $180m or so in lending.    Remember that old term of "Stress Test's", yeah, that's what it speaks to. 

    Now you multiply this by just a handful of instances, not tens of thousands but tens, and all of a sudden numbers are touching on a billion+. All of a sudden that "Stress Test" is going from green, to yellow, skipping orange and throwing RED RED RED. 

    And what happens? All of a sudden there is talk of regulators "helping" that regional lender by "relieving them" of a billion in ACTIVE serviced accounts and handing them to..... drum-role-please..... J.P. FREAKING Morgan...... 

    Yup......

    That's how I see this playing out. Nothing more then a consolidation in banking. And there isn't a darn thing those regional banks can do. 

    And that is how it works, J.P. doesn't take the actual problem accounts, no, were all told what a great "helpful" thing it is that they are taking a big hunk of what is working because then, at a smaller size it "mitigates risk exposure" and we gobble it up. 

    And then if it becomes a big enough problem they will issue out a new TARP, so WE will fund it, and again be told how it's a good thing for all of us that J.P. is getting a few trillion in additional accounts who specifically DIDN'T want to work with J.P. in the first place, and the tax payer will supplement the regional lenders to "get their house in order". Or, what's left of that house after J.P. was handed half the best parts of it. 

    If they wanted to the whole situation could be prevented NOW, today, in less then 1 week. Via establishing a special "inflation impact fund" that provides a deferred off-set 7yr loan to commercial property operators that will bridge the difference in current financing rate and there new rate. This would be tacked onto the back end as a balloon payment, no pre-payment penalty.    It wouldn't take that much $, about what we send Ukraine in 1 week, and it buys commercial real estate 7 years breathing room to get things sorted and leveled out.    But have we heard 1-word of something like this? Anything like this?    This issue has LONG been coming, everyone literally EVERYONE in commercial real estate sees this freight train coming to end of the tracks, it's simple math. 


     100% agree with that analysis.  Also what is not mentioned, the regulators have not required the banks to mark their bond portfolio to market.  That consideration isn't even in their stress test eval according to the SVB hearings from the regulators.  Literally, as we speak, the community banks are all on tilt, where typically their leverage ratio was at 2-3:1 is now at 10:1 since their bonds are currently worth .50 on the $.   This just reinforces your concept that only the big boys will be holding the cards when the music stops.  And that is because they are too big to fail.  Main street screwed again.  Regional banking as we know it today, will be extinct.  Much like the S&L debacle back in the 80's.

  • Contractor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2010 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    3y

    Just want to say I appreciate everybody's responses above. I knew there would be some valuable perspective on this topic.

    Seems like everybody is in agreement that commercial real estate is in trouble (unless there is some intervention like James described, which seems like a sound solution to me!) 

    Maybe it's too soon to consider ways to 'take advantage' of this pained market that we are slowly entering.

    All I know is that in 2008 I was just a few years out of high school. I was in the real estate business (mortgage loan officer for Countrywide) but I was still too young and naive to take advantage of the opportunities that the 2008 recession presented.

    I'm hoping that this time around I can be more prepared...

    @Carlos Ptriawan@Nick Rutkowski@Account Closed

  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Mike Bybee:
    Quote from @James Hamling:

     100% agree with that analysis.  Also what is not mentioned, the regulators have not required the banks to mark their bond portfolio to market.  That consideration isn't even in their stress test eval according to the SVB hearings from the regulators.  Literally, as we speak, the community banks are all on tilt, where typically their leverage ratio was at 2-3:1 is now at 10:1 since their bonds are currently worth .50 on the $.   This just reinforces your concept that only the big boys will be holding the cards when the music stops.  And that is because they are too big to fail.  Main street screwed again.  Regional banking as we know it today, will be extinct.  Much like the S&L debacle back in the 80's.


     THis is the playbook in the 1920-1930s too. Remember why JP Morgan exist at the first place ? It's the exact same circumstance. 
    Any bank failed ? they would just sell it to JPM in one fine weekend. What happened to FRC is so predictable. Now PACW maybe in line for the next weekend to be captured by JPM.

  • Mike BybeePro Member
    Investor · Member since 2018 · 9 posts · 5 votes
    3y

    I think there will be opportunities to trade in specialty use buildings, where zoning traditionally is a challenge.  Will need the city to play ball in allowing to retain the zoning provision with new tenancy, ie autobody, garage service, auto/equipment dealers, light industrial, etc.  I would think mixed use will still be a player in strong habitational markets. 

  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Scott E.:

    Just want to say I appreciate everybody's responses above. I knew there would be some valuable perspective on this topic.

    Seems like everybody is in agreement that commercial real estate is in trouble (unless there is some intervention like James described, which seems like a sound solution to me!) 

    Maybe it's too soon to consider ways to 'take advantage' of this pained market that we are slowly entering.

    All I know is that in 2008 I was just a few years out of high school. I was in the real estate business (mortgage loan officer for Countrywide) but I was still too young and naive to take advantage of the opportunities that the 2008 recession presented.

    I'm hoping that this time around I can be more prepared...

    @Carlos Ptriawan@Nick Rutkowski@Account Closed@James Hamling@Bill B.@Jay Hinrichs@Mike Dymski@Chris John


     The difference with 2008 is that all internal Fed metric for residential real estate and mortgage has been deteriorated since 2004 itself, so the Fed already knows there are lot of issue. In 2023, they don't see the same risk now, residential mortgage delinquency has just entered a new low this month alone.

    In 2023, the problem only lies in selected regional office/banking sector that has huge liability ratio between their cash and bond/loan portfolio ratio and also in CMBS market due to floating rate(expected). In short, the problem is much much much more contained.

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