Help Analyzing My First Foreclosure

Help Analyzing My First Foreclosure

Real Estate Agent · Louisville, KY · Member since 2016 · 147 posts · 135 votes

So here is my situation and I just need someone from out there from the wonderful BP community (you're my hero @Brandon Turner) if possible, because this admittedly IS my first rodeo:

- I've been watching the MLS in this area daily for the past 6 months, so I know market well, but this is my first foreclosure I have seen that really piqued my interest. 3 bed/2 bath 1,200 sqft w/ unfinished basement and large backyard.

- Good bones, good neighborhood. Owner took off with his new girlfriend about a year and a half ago and it has been vacant ever since. Just released onto the foreclosure market yesterday. 

- Power was out for an extended amount of time which caused the sump pump to back up and flood the basement about 6-10 inches but it appears that Fannie Mae went in and cleaned everything up after getting the power restored. It is a big basement and only one corner of it is drywall/wood panel, the rest of it is concrete which they cleaned and painted already.

- Upstairs has some mold on the walls but the stench was not overwhelming and it appeared that we would just need to clean and paint.

- Listed at $40,000 and there have already been a few other investors in to take a look today.

- I am no expert on rehab, but here is my best try:

- Upstairs: clean/paint walls, paint cabinets, remove carpet in living room & refinish hardwood: $10,000; new window trim: $500

- Basement: minor mold remediation: $1,500

- Exterior: damage to wood panels above front porch: $500; landscaping: $1,500

- CapEx: roof: $8,000; furnace: $3,000

- Appliances: refrigerator: $800; microwave: $200; dishwasher: $400; W&D: $600

- Miscellaneous: clean-up, etc: $3,000

- Total: $30,000

Now, let's say I pay full price at $40,000 w/ 25% ($10,000) down. I found a great local mortgage lender that works with investors and loans money for rehab properties. That makes it about a $60,000 loan ($30 purchase, $30 rehab) with a potential $110,000+ ARV. That's a big payday for me if I chose to flip!

After repair it would rent for about $900-1,000 w/ a potentially $380 mortgage (projecting 5.5% interest). Using 50% rule, that may only yield ~$70-170 cash flow.

So my question is, as a new investor with a goal of building passive income, should I flip this home and roll the capital into future rental property investments given the apparently more favorable spread for the flip vs. the rental cash flow in this scenario? That is what I am leaning towards although my strategy has always been buy & hold to build passive income.

ALSO - is there anything anyone can spot that I might be missing in my numbers above? 

Lastly, are there any other considerations for buying a foreclosure that I need to take into consideration? I am doing some research on the process before I make an offer but thought I would throw it out to the forums to hear your expert insight as well.

Take a look at the pictures:

Thanks so much for anyone that may choose to read through this and engage me with some advice. I hope to have the opportunity to pay it forward 10X one day to the next generation of newbies!

Cheers,

Brad Noe

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Rental Property Investor · Charlottesville, VA · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 726 votes
10y

@Brad Noe Looks like a good first project and seems like you have done plenty of studying on it. It's good you have several exit strategies in case things change once you get into it. Why not try to Brrrr it? That way you can keep it as a long-term hold and get the money back for your next project?

If you flip it, the taxes will be fairly high. No taxes on a refinance. Also, if you are flipping it you probably need to spend more on the rehab than if you're going to rent it.

In answer to your question of if you missed anything, the answer is - Yes you surely did so expect it. $30k is a fairly high budget for a house that size though, I would plan to spend $10-15k to hold it as a rental so you're probably ok. 

A few things I noticed in the pictures. It seems very 80ish, I'd think you'd have to improve the curb appeal to flip it. The brown/yellow exterior color scheme would probably turn people off. Also tile countertop, wallpaper, textured ceilings and brown outlet covers.

Good luck, it looks like a fun project!

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  • Rental Property Investor · Charlottesville, VA · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 726 votes
    10y

    @Brad Noe Looks like a good first project and seems like you have done plenty of studying on it. It's good you have several exit strategies in case things change once you get into it. Why not try to Brrrr it? That way you can keep it as a long-term hold and get the money back for your next project?

    If you flip it, the taxes will be fairly high. No taxes on a refinance. Also, if you are flipping it you probably need to spend more on the rehab than if you're going to rent it.

    In answer to your question of if you missed anything, the answer is - Yes you surely did so expect it. $30k is a fairly high budget for a house that size though, I would plan to spend $10-15k to hold it as a rental so you're probably ok. 

    A few things I noticed in the pictures. It seems very 80ish, I'd think you'd have to improve the curb appeal to flip it. The brown/yellow exterior color scheme would probably turn people off. Also tile countertop, wallpaper, textured ceilings and brown outlet covers.

    Good luck, it looks like a fun project!

  • Real Estate Agent · Louisville, KY · Member since 2016 · 147 posts · 135 votes
    10y

    Hello @Jeff Kehl! Thanks for the reply and some great points. My strategy all along (not just for this property, but in general) has been the BRRRR method as outlined in @Brandon Turner's "Book on Rental Properties". The relative spread on this property for flip vs. rental cash flow is what caused me to consider deviating from my strategy. However, I think your point about higher taxes and higher rehab budget may have tipped the scales for me back to rentals. Thanks for keeping me on track ;)

  • Real Estate Agent · Louisville, KY · Member since 2016 · 147 posts · 135 votes
    10y

    Someone else put in an offer last night. We're going to come in at $5,000 above ask ($45,000) since we are not paying cash. Wish me luck!

  • Rental Property Investor · Charlottesville, VA · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 726 votes
    10y

    @Brad Noe Make sure to let us know if you get it. @Eve Edwards you may want to start your own thread on this. There is a category to discuss lending. But my answer is it depends. You can borrow hard money to do it all day long for 12-15%. But if you're experienced and have some connections you should be able to find private lenders in the 6-10% range.

  • Residential Real Estate Broker · Birmingham, MI · Member since 2009 · 5 posts · 0 votes
    10y

    thanks

  • Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2015 · 6k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Brad Noe:

    Someone else put in an offer last night. We're going to come in at $5,000 above ask ($45,000) since we are not paying cash. Wish me luck!

    So long as you can keep the rehab costs to $15k instead of your original estimate of $30k, your numbers should still hold. For successful Brrrr, you need the same sort of spread that a flip would get you, in any case. But instead of flipping, just re-borrow 70% of its amazing post-rehabbed appraisal value, which should net you enough "free" money to do it all again with OPM! Luck!...

  • Real Estate Agent · Louisville, KY · Member since 2016 · 147 posts · 135 votes
    10y

    @Jeff Kehl @Brent Coombs: Hey guys, just wanted to let you know that Fannie Mae accepted our offer and we are now under contract! We purchased for $45k and hope to keep our rehab budget to $15k (or less), then rent, refinance, and do it again! Thanks so much for your great advice. 

  • Investor · Louisville, KY · Member since 2013 · 139 posts · 43 votes
    10y

    Congratulations!  Looks like we are in the same boat:

    https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/522/topics/34...

  • Prospect, KY · Member since 2016 · 5 posts · 4 votes
    10y

    Brad awesome acquisition.  I think if you are off to rent you won't need to spend so much to update but when the day you want to sell arrive you will need a much more aggressive interior remodel. You might just consider new carpet vs refinishing those hardwood floors. You can save that for the you sell.  If your holding this property I'd invest in a better shingle so this is the last roof you ever put on that house. 

    Good luck and have fun. 

  • Real Estate Agent · Louisville, KY · Member since 2016 · 147 posts · 135 votes
    10y

    Thank you @Todd Bauer! Those are some great points about the carpet and the roof. I definitely will take those into consideration. I'm a big fan of your company, I work for a local manufacturer of storage & organization accessories for kitchen cabinets. I'll definitely use you guys for my building materials where possible.

  • Manalapan, NJ · Member since 2014 · 33 posts · 6 votes
    10y

    Hello Brad ..Read through the thread now ...wondering how is your project going.

  • Real Estate Agent · Louisville, KY · Member since 2016 · 147 posts · 135 votes
    10y
    Rajesh T. We are set to close next Friday 10/7. The closing was delayed 10 days by the lender because it took Fannie Mae 2 weeks to return the signed contract, thus delaying the lender from initiating paperwork. we are moving forward with the BRRRR strategy, with a goal of 20+ properties in 7 years. Thanks for asking! Cheers!
  • Grayslake, IL · Member since 2016 · 8 posts · 1 vote
    10y
    Congrats and good luck with this project!
  • Wadsworth, OH · Member since 2016 · 14 posts · 6 votes
    10y

    Thanks for all the details on this project @Brad Noe.  I'm interested in hearing how it turns out and how much the rehab winds up costing.  

  • Real Estate Agent · Louisville, KY · Member since 2016 · 147 posts · 135 votes
    9y

    @Michael Ferry @Rajesh T. @Todd Bauer @William R. @Jeff Kehl @Account Closed

    UPDATE: We finished the rehab a couple of weeks ago and just yesterday collected the Deposit to Hold from our soon-to-be tenants! Here are the final numbers:

    Time to complete: 2 months

    Purchase price: $45k ($30k loan w/ $15k down payment)

    Final rehab cost: $22k ($20k loan; $2k came out of pocket)

    Total mortgage loan: $50k

    Total out-of-pocket: $17k + $3k closing & holding costs = $20k

    (All-in for $70k)

    Estimated ARV: $120k ($70k in equity!)

    Rental price: $1,050/mo.

    Estimated cash flow after all expenses: $350/mo.

    Cash-On-Cash Return: $4,200 annual cash flow / $20,000 out-of-pocket = 21%

    Big thanks to everyone copied on here for your interest in my first project here and to many of you for helping me out and giving some great advice. I could not have done it without you! Now it's onto the next one. Have a merry Christmas and happy new year everyone!

  • Investor · Floyds Knobs, IN · Member since 2015 · 144 posts · 59 votes
    9y

    @Brad Noe, Congratulations Brad. Happy to hear that everything worked out for you. If you ever want to partner on a deal let me know.

  • Investor · Louisville, KY · Member since 2013 · 139 posts · 43 votes
    9y

    Sounds like a solid deal.  Nice work on the timeline...Wish I was in the same boat!

  • Rental Property Investor · Charlottesville, VA · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 726 votes
    9y

    @Brad Noe Congratulations and thanks for posting the results! It's great to see a success story.

    I know you are probably tired from this one and want to bask in it for awhile but what I see in the above numbers is time to refinance, pull $50k out and start on the next two :)

  • Abingdon, MD · Member since 2016 · 17 posts · 3 votes
    9y

    @Brad Noe Congrats! Way to go with your gut instinct. What class neighbor would you consider this property?

  • Rental Property Investor · Oakland, CA · Member since 2016 · 341 posts · 643 votes
    9y

    @Brad Noe Awesome thread here on buying a foreclosure. Any chance you could show us some pictures post-renovation? Very curious!

    -Tyler

  • Real Estate Agent · Louisville, KY · Member since 2016 · 147 posts · 135 votes
    9y

    @David Heath @William R. Thanks guys! Let's keep in touch. 

    @Jeff Kehl Thanks man. But trust me we are not taking a break to bask in anything - we are moving onto the next one and yes we are planning to refinance and rollover the funds toward the next project(s). My wife @Katie Noe obtained her real estate license a few months ago and we are going full force into this as a team.

    @David Idi I would consider this a "class B" neighborhood for southern Indiana.

    @Tyler Jahnke I'm having issues with posting the images directly to the forum, but here is a link to view them: https://www.dropbox.com/sh/ggp1l9gz6huaakw/AADIBX-cEPdXC2AFiBxcxltZa?dl=0

  • Poughkeepsie, NY · Member since 2012 · 12 posts · 13 votes
    9y

    @Brad Noe looks great$$$

  • Rental Property Investor · Oakland, CA · Member since 2016 · 341 posts · 643 votes
    9y

    WOW! Does look great @Brad Noe Thanks for the update! Best of luck!

  • Tampa, FL · Member since 2016 · 44 posts · 10 votes
    9y

    @Brad Noe congrats!!!

    This looks great!!

  • Auburn, WA · Member since 2016 · 2 posts · 1 vote
    9y

    What is that main color in the living room? The light tan, I have trouble finding great colors sometimes haha... If you recall the brand and color name that would be awesome. Congrats again!

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