What's separates an emerging market from a hot market

What's separates an emerging market from a hot market

Rental Property Investor · Douglasville, GA · Member since 2015 · 83 posts · 67 votes

Hi all, 

I'm an investor in the multi-family commercial space (based in Atlanta) and I'm looking for a tertiary, emerging market to play in.  I've read Dave Lindahl's book, "Emerging Markets", where he breaks down the (4) stages of an investment real estate cycle:  Seller's Market I, Seller's Market II, Buyer's Market I, and Buyer's Market II.  

Buyer's Market II - beginning / first half of an emerging market - market absorbs oversupply, time on market decreases, job growth increases, existing properties rehabbed, rents begin to slowly increase, prices slowly begin to increase.  This is the market to buy.

Seller's Market I - supply dwindles fast, properties selling fast / very competitive, bidding wars start as properties come onto the market, time on the market is at it's lowest point, unemployment low, properties prices and rents rising, demand is at it's highest point, market will start to cool off at some point (can't last forever).  The savvy investors begin to sell their portfolios in this market and find other opportunities.  The green money stays in.

The major difference between these two markets is that Buyer's Market II is a market not considered "hot" and general investors at large do not really know about them.  Seller's Market I is your typical "hot" market (ie. Atlanta, Dallas, etc.).  

My question is this - what market research source can I use that clearly identifies markers that separates the two types of markets?  I wish to clearly identify cities that are in a "Buyer's Market II" portion of a cycle.  Any and all responses are welcome.  

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Investor · Atlanta, GA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
9y

I would think that in Atlanta you can categorize different neighborhoods into those different markets. You don't need to leave a ciry for that

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  • Investor · Atlanta, GA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    9y

    I would think that in Atlanta you can categorize different neighborhoods into those different markets. You don't need to leave a ciry for that

  • Rental Property Investor · Douglasville, GA · Member since 2015 · 83 posts · 67 votes
    9y

    Hi Michaela, thanks for your feedback.  Any specific, recommended market research tools to vet neighborhoods with?  Most only break data down to metro areas and small cities.  

  • Investor · Atlanta, GA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    9y

    No. Just saying that different neighborhoods have different markets and if you're trying to lump everything together to get an average you'll miss the fluctiations within....which is what you're really looking for.

  • Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2015 · 6k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y

    @Rashad Nelson, basically, Investors "in the know" about which streets are due to "emerge" will NOT give that information away. And if they do - it means they're NOT sure about their forecast.

    Because that's all it can ever be: a "forecast". Ask yourself: how often is the best scientific knowledge WRONG about something so supposedly predictable as: the weather?

    And you want accurate predictions about what MIGHT happen if competing humans take action?

    Good luck with that...

  • Rental Property Investor · Douglasville, GA · Member since 2015 · 83 posts · 67 votes
    9y

    Thank you both for your input.  

  • Professional · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 54 posts · 33 votes
    9y
    I judge hot or up and coming markets based on population growth, job growth, average days on market and appreciation. If all of these except DOM are increasing rapidly you are in a good growth market. This doesn't mean it's time to sell YET! If you start to see the DOM or appreciation taper off and plateau it's time to sell! Green investors will bite on the opportunity! Don't sell too soon! You will leave money on the table. I have made this mistake many times and am kicking myself for it now. You always have to analyze average days on market and values on a hot market. I track it everyday here in Dallas.
  • Rental Property Investor · Douglasville, GA · Member since 2015 · 83 posts · 67 votes
    9y

    Thank you John for your constructive insight.  That's exactly the type of feedback that I find helpful. Here are my typical market research resources per the criteria you've mentioned.  

    Population growth - https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045216/....  I can only seem to get consistent growth figures measured between 2010 to 2015.  I've had no luck finding more recent data.  The current administration plans to cut Census Bureau funding, so this will certainly not improve things here.  

    Job growth - http://www.deptofnumbers.com/employment/ - Latest info as of March 2017. Sources directly from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (which is not an easy website to gain information from).  This breaks things down far more easily.  

    Days on Market (DOM), List Prices (appreciation), and Number of Active Listings  - http://research.realtor.com/ - Latest info as of April 2017.  

    I also use Milken Institute's Best Performing Cities of 2016 - http://www.best-cities.org/. This info points me in a good general direction of a market to delve further into.  I focus on smaller cities.  

    May I ask what specific resources do you use to track your data?  

  • Real Estate Investor · Williamson County, TX · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 961 votes
    9y
    The most current source of data is always going to be the MLS. But I would like to suggest that the reason most RE investors do best locally is because they see and recognize the increased activity with their own eyes and read about local changes that impact neighborhoods or areas in the local newspaper...or before, which is why local officials often own prime property when roads are announced. It seems easy and free, requiring only eyes, ears and brain, but it requires time and dedicated effort so no one shares their thoughts with a potential competitor. They may even throw off red herrings in a discussion forum like this one...if someone asks about potential in an area they are focused on. RE is very local.
  • Rental Property Investor · Douglasville, GA · Member since 2015 · 83 posts · 67 votes
    9y

    Thank you for your input as well.

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