What's separates an emerging market from a hot market
Hi all,
I'm an investor in the multi-family commercial space (based in Atlanta) and I'm looking for a tertiary, emerging market to play in. I've read Dave Lindahl's book, "Emerging Markets", where he breaks down the (4) stages of an investment real estate cycle: Seller's Market I, Seller's Market II, Buyer's Market I, and Buyer's Market II.
Buyer's Market II - beginning / first half of an emerging market - market absorbs oversupply, time on market decreases, job growth increases, existing properties rehabbed, rents begin to slowly increase, prices slowly begin to increase. This is the market to buy.
Seller's Market I - supply dwindles fast, properties selling fast / very competitive, bidding wars start as properties come onto the market, time on the market is at it's lowest point, unemployment low, properties prices and rents rising, demand is at it's highest point, market will start to cool off at some point (can't last forever). The savvy investors begin to sell their portfolios in this market and find other opportunities. The green money stays in.
The major difference between these two markets is that Buyer's Market II is a market not considered "hot" and general investors at large do not really know about them. Seller's Market I is your typical "hot" market (ie. Atlanta, Dallas, etc.).
My question is this - what market research source can I use that clearly identifies markers that separates the two types of markets? I wish to clearly identify cities that are in a "Buyer's Market II" portion of a cycle. Any and all responses are welcome.