18 Year Real Estate Cycles - Next Bust 2024?

[Johnson H.]

I have been researching real estate cycles and found real estate economist Homer Hoyt theory of 18 year real estate cycle in the 1930's. In the early 90's economist Fred E. Foldvary predicted the real estate crash in 2006 using this same methodology. 

"The chart above, was used by Fred E. Foldvary - in his now famous report - to predict the recession of 2008. If you look again at the chart, you will notice that the 2008 prediction was right in line with the 18 year cycle - which Foldvary uses as the basis for his report. In his report, Foldvary even explains why Hoyt's 18-year cycle theory diverged so drastically between 1925 and 1973. Foldvary points out that the cycle does not always function on a precise 18 year schedule, but - baring catastrophic events like a world war - for the most part the cycle should be right around 18 years. I'm not going to go in depth into all the various factors discussed by Foldvary in his report, but if you want to know more, I encourage you to read Foldvary's full 40 page brief."

http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/the-real-estate-cycle-where-are-we-now-59319.aspx

http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/great-18year-real-estate-cycle

Based on this information, it seems that the next top of the cycle will be in 2024 pending any wars or a large scale disasters. I know 10 years away seems like a long time from now but reading over the data and Fred E. Foldvary report, it seems to all make sense. 

BP Nation, what are your thoughts on this theory?

[Ned Carey]

Originally posted by @Johnson H.:

@Ned Carey  - I totally agree with you, it may not be 18 years. I want to figure out the best metrics to track for the next bust so that I don't get caught up with it.

 Here is the number one metric that has been foolproof. It was told by humorist and Author Dave Barry. Dave is a funny man but certainly not the guy you would look to for financial advice. However the following has proven to be the best indicator I have ever seen.  While it was written about the stock market it applies perfectly to the real estate market too. 

You may laugh but when the average person who wouldn't normally have any interest in real estate (or any investment) starts talking about it, the market is overheated.