Top 3 YOY Miami 10.5%- Las Vegas 10.1% - San Franscisco 9%

13 Replies

Year over year  appreciation single family homes

Case Shiller Aug

4th Dallas 7.9%

5th Detroit 7%

bumping, I posted this late night. I kept hearing from "investors" Vegas ship sailed 2 years ago. Thanks,  Matt

I am really surprised to hear this.... Maybe this is only for entry level prices? In that case I can definitely see the appreciation. 

Originally posted by @Guy Raveh :

I am really surprised to hear this.... Maybe this is only for entry level prices? In that case I can definitely see the appreciation. 

 I am 99.9% certain this report is median across the board appreciation rate. Why surprised.. Vegas is a very hot market whenever I looked...thanks

The Vegas market has softened and inventory is continuing to rise. But homes that are priced right are still selling.

Over the past few years we have had 30% appreciation. With the slow down we are still seeing about 10% as mentioned above. Above is the Sept year after year appreciation for Sept 2014. At the beginning of the year I projected the market to yield 10% to 15% appreciation for 2014 so these figures are in line with our projections.

I posted about this on my bigger pockets blog a few days ago here: http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/2923/blog_posts/40556-is-your-las-vegas-or-henderson-home-still-going-up-in-value

Ok truth be told we went from about 40 deals per year in Vegas to now a very few listings on the market. (Shifted our focus to other markets). Most of our current listings are in zips like 89113, 89052. As reflected in the above map these areas have seen almost no appreciation. I am enjoying seeing this post and the above mentioned map of appreciation thanks @Matt R.   !

@Guy Raveh  

What you have describe is very common amongst investors. The market is mainly being pushed by owner occupants that were getting outbid by investors in the boom. There are still mom and pop investors jumping on the bandwagon late that is also help drive demand. You also have the savvy local investors that are still able to find good enough deals to still turn a profit even though the market has softened. Even though the appreciation game has slowed you can now get into properties with equity vs overpaying and banking on appreciation like 2012 and 2013. Buyer's need to adjust their buying strategy as the market changes but there is still money to be made.

People that overpaid for the property in the last 12 months that were hoping for 30% appreciation will feel it worse than the buyers that felt the market softening, therefore bought better deals, allowing them to walk in with equity instead of banking on appreciation.

Secondly, I would add that the new homes being built are not going to help our rising inventory trends.

Thought this might be useful here as well: http://www.biggerpockets.com/blogs/2923/blog_posts/40555-notice-of-defaults-nods-are-on-the-rise-in-vegas-but-the-good-news

NOD's still down 80% from 2009's highs.Back in 2009 we had closer to 5,000 NOD's a month filed.

Since AB284 was changed in 2011 the NOD's plummeted as a side affect of them trying to curb the robo-signing fiasco. Since then we have stayed under 500 NOD's almost every month for several years.

Over the past couple months we have seen the NOD's jump up to:

May 673
June 660
July 1027
August 770
September 874


While this is an increase, it is still down from 5,000 a few years back.

I hope this helpful to buyers and sellers out there!

Originally posted by @Guy Raveh :

Ok truth be told we went from about 40 deals per year in Vegas to now a very few listings on the market. (Shifted our focus to other markets). Most of our current listings are in zips like 89113, 89052. As reflected in the above map these areas have seen almost no appreciation. I am enjoying seeing this post and the above mentioned map of appreciation thanks @Matt Rosas  @Robert Adams   !

Thanks for sharing Guy. I guess the good news it is only on paper. How have your vacancies and management been thus far? Thanks,  Matt

@Matt R.  I posted a blog about the change in vegas rentals over the summer you might be interested in:

You know there is a difference between pessimism and realism. We count ourselves in the realism category. The previous post described, (link to post is here) why prices would be coming down even though the national sources are trumpeting stellar recovery. The word that comes to mind is

Originally posted by @Tiger M. :

@Matt Rosas I posted a blog about the change in vegas rentals over the summer you might be interested in:

You know there is a difference between pessimism and realism. We count ourselves in the realism category. The previous post described, (link to post is here) why prices would be coming down even though the national sources are trumpeting stellar recovery. The word that comes to mind is

@Matt R.  Your post is very much inline with what I have seeing with the Vegas market and where I think we may be moving towards.

@Matt R.  

I guess josh needed to bless it before posted on BP. It should work by now. If not you can hit my website and go to news.

@Tiger M.  the link wasn't working for me either. I will try to find it via your website. I do agree with your comments above though. We are seeing renters perspective changing. Many people do not want the headache of owning anymore after the last crash as well. With all the new investment properties that were bought with the intent to buy and hold as rentals it is a good thing some of the people out there want to remain long term renters. these renters should help hold rental rates firm if not increase slightly. Without them we would see lower rental rates, therefore giving us lower returns on our investment properties, therefore deterring investors from our market further.

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