Case shiller Number 1 performing market Portland Oregon

[Jay Hinrichs]

well for all you stat's folks Portland tops the list this go around.

It is very robust market here.. as we tend to get the over flow from CA. and lag behind CA about 12 to 18 months...

One of my new home projects I am building we had targeted 350k sale price when we hit the market Oct 2015. .. we are now at 370k today.. sold one today for 369k.. so nice upward movement nothing of the level of premium bay area but when you take that and average it over 22 homes we have remaining.. ( sold first 5 at the 350 to 355k number) that's a close to 500k gain for the project in 4 months.. So just living the dream I guess..

those that bought rentals here a few years back are loving life as well.. rents went stupid rising up 50% in many cases.. what was 1000 3 years ago is now 1500... but that still on SFR's brings most in at the .08% rule.. but for multi there is some pretty nice gains and returns happening in an uber Strong and safe market Risk wise.

[Mike Nuss]

Hey @Steve B. we agree on something!! You’re right, our legislation is showing no sign of changing directions anytime soon, and it seems Multnomah county gets more liberal by the year.

I’m sorry but you’re way off here…”the Max line is a minor player in housing outside of low-income rentals”. I'm too lazy to go dig up the multiple economic papers I’ve read on the topic (backed up with my own experiences, research and eyes in the marketplace), but there has been an economic boom along the MAX lines. I guarantee you there are thousands of property owners, including me, benefiting from the infrastructure that the city of Portland built. We will continue to benefit from the demand that’s been created, in large part because of the MAX.

I agree that the MAX is a tough pill to swallow for taxpayers that, A) don’t use it and B) don’t own a business or property around it, as these taxpayers are subsidizing every ride in a heavy manner. The bottom line is that it spurs private development, which drives the economy. Same thing with the Tram. There is no way OHSU invests in the south waterfront, the way they do, without the tram in place. It just isn’t feasible. That one huge piece of legislation completely changed the landscape of that area, in large part due to their pact with OHSU, whether we like it or not. Good luck telling anyone in the SWF that public infrastructure doesn’t help their property value. Even the tax payers that don’t benefit from, but subsidize the max, see a rising tide that they take part in. It’s very hard to argue, without simply whining, that the MAX and Streetcar haven’t benefited their market segments.

Also Steve, You obviously don’t know much about me. I’m on record in both January 2015 and January 2016 as stating Portland won’t continue to appreciate at the rates we’ve seen and I’ve also stated that I’m looking forward to another downturn. I believe the midterm is where Portland is the weakest. Portland looks great in the short term and great in the long term, but affordability is changing (still more affordable than 2006-2007 levels) and lending parameters are starting to loosen. We won’t have a crash like we did in previous years, there has been too much “skin in the game”over the past 4-5 year run up, but lenders are heading back to pre crash standards and something has to be done about the conglomerate GSEs known as Freddie and Fannie. There will be a changing tide in borrowing power, which will affect the market place. People won’t have to sell like they did during the crash. But eventually these prices will bring more significant amounts of sellers to the marketplace. Those sellers combined with the extensive amount of development in the pipeline, while force market conditions to change from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market. I think it will be smart to avoid selling and to be buying aggressively 2-5 years from now.

@Mushfiq S. , to answer your question. Gresham is an interesting market. It has a lot of potential as Gresham, Fairview, East County and Troutdale have a significant portion of Portland’s very minimal industrial land (this is where Seattle puts Portland to shame by the way, feasible industrial land). There are many main thoroughfares to get out there (Powell, Division, Stark, Burnside, Glisan, I-84 and Sandy) and there is a MAX station in downtown Gresham. I know new construction is doing well and they’re seeing escalation in the market place. Gresham recently was reported to have 1% vacancy rates, lowest in the State of Oregon at the time. The downside, or potential downside to Gresham, is that Portland’s gentrification is pushing low income earners toward Gresham. That’s part of the reason their vacancy rates are low. In a market like this that just increases demand so high at the lower price points that it trickles upward from there. When supply levels switch it can be bad, because lower earners, will have more pull in the market place. But there have been multiple institutional investments made in the Gresham area and it has strong demographics, in the long run, just like most of Portland at this time.