Weigh in on my plan to increase liquidity pre-correction

Weigh in on my plan to increase liquidity pre-correction

Derek SperzelPro Member
Rental Property Investor · Jeffersonville, IN · Member since 2012 · 72 posts · 40 votes

With all the talk of a Real Estate Correction looming, we've been self-educating, and considering different ways to prepare.  We understand that being highly liquid is especially critical for acquiring deals during an economic downturn.  We personally need to make a choice regarding our future liquidity, and we're asking the BP Community to weigh in with their thoughts.  

We have a recently completed flip under contract, and should be closing in the next few weeks(fingers-crossed). We own the flip "free-and-clear" and do not plan to immediately reinvest this capital. For some background, we typically use the BRRRR Strategy, we focus on SFH, and only flip houses when a property doesn't meet our buy-and-hold criteria. We anticipate that after closing costs, commissions, and taxes, we should take home approximately $195k on this deal (acquisition cost, rehab, & profit). In our market (Southern Indiana/Louisville, KY) that is enough capital to take on as many as two more small/medium SFH BRRRR deals without leverage (we prefer delayed financing).

We are not risk adverse, so we thought, how can we leverage this upcoming cash position? We owe about $165k on our personal residence, it should appraise for around $285k, and that means we've got about $120k in equity. If we pay off our mortgage, it would allow us to establish a HELOC for about $256,500 based on 90% LTV. In essence we'd be increasing our accessible cash position from $195,000 up to $256,500, which is an increase of $61,500, or 31.5% change in cash(256,500 - 195,000 / 195,000). Obviously HELOC's comes with a variable rate, but we also would be saving money that would have otherwise been consumed in the form of interest payments on our existing mortgage. Given our current business model (BRRRR), we usually can pull most of our initial investment back out in 6-7 months through a refinance.

We'd love for you all to give us your thoughts on this strategy, what you would do in our position, and why.  Thanks in Advance!

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Rental Property Investor · Durham, NC · Member since 2016 · 7k+ posts · 7k+ votes
7y

@Derek Sperzel. My best advice is to sell everything at a 50 percent discount to market value to me. I will then resell it and make a lot of moola. But now you have money for the impending crash.

Real estate cycles tend to move in 18 year cycles which means the next one is likely around 2027. Could be sooner but I don’t think it’s going to be in the next year or two. If the economy slows that doesn’t mean housing values tank. They could just stabilize

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  • Chris MasonPro Member
    Moderator
    Lender · CA · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    7y

    HELOC lenders generally retain the right to cut off access to additional HELOC draws whenever they wish. And, wouldn't you know it, that'll come typically during a downturn, right when you need it most. The more properties you own and the more leveraged you are, the higher the 'risk' you are, and the more likely this is to happen - "owns a bunch of rental properties" is not a "protected class" the way gender and race are, so they can discriminate on this basis if they wish. Happened to a lot of people last time.

    I wasn't in the real estate world last downturn (was stationed in West Africa when the crash happened), but a lot of folks who owned in what some consider "C" and "D" neighborhoods in places local to me like East Oakland, Stockton, and Vallejo, felt particularly targeted with the inability to draw on HELOCs or secure additional financing, even though if that was explicitly the case and it could be proven there would have hypothetically been a good case for a lawsuit based on the illegal practice of "redlining." 

    It sucks for a lot of reasons I'm sure you are already aware of, but if guaranteeing liquidity is the goal, then cash out refinances before the correction is the solution. There are no take backsies on a Fannie 30 year fixed cash out refi the way there is on a HELOC. The reason I say "before" any hypothetical correction is because cash out refinances on investment properties in the early years of the downturn were virtually unheard of... your HELOC(s) was/were cut off, and no one was doing cash out refis. What you had in your checking/savings account was what you had to work with, and that was that. Lending got stupid tight. So the old saying of "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" is applicable here.... if you want guaranteed access to $200k, that $200k needs to be sitting in a FDIC insured depository account, or your access to it is purely hypothetical/speculative in the event of a downturn.

    I'm young, so that's drawn from me doing the old "you prepare for the next 'war' based on what happened in the last 'war'" thing that is far from perfect. @Jay Hinrichs has been around a lot longer, maybe he will chime in if we're lucky (BTW he was probably one of the ones who would lend you money in say 2010... for a pretty pretty penny).

  • Derek SperzelPro Member
    OP
    Rental Property Investor · Jeffersonville, IN · Member since 2012 · 72 posts · 40 votes
    7y

    @Chris Mason Great feedback ,and certainly a cautionary tale worth remembering.  We weren't investing during the last downturn either, so we were fortunate in that regard, but we also missed some important lessons learned.

    So, would the lender be able to enact a "balance due" type clause in the event of a downturn, or would further draws simply cease?

  • Greensboro, NC · Member since 2017 · 13 posts · 6 votes
    7y

    Hi Derek,

    If your immediate goal to supercharge your real estate empire, having liquidity is critical to accomplish your short term or long term goal.

    I have a suggestion that you can look into and see if that works for you. Look into Nelson Nash regarding creating your own Family bank using permanent life insurance to fund your real estate deals without any credit check. The benefits of using this is that you can get a loan from your insurance company within a 1-2 business days and having death benefit as well. The cash value from the policy will the collateral that the insurance company will take if you don’t make payment on the loan taken out. There is no limit how many insurance policy you can have.

    I hope the information helps and aggressively achieve your real estate goals.

  • Rental Property Investor · Shelton, CT 06484 · Member since 2016 · 22 posts · 10 votes
    7y

    @Derek Sperzel Definitely a time to consider becoming more liquid! Not sure how this will all pan out or if we're at the top yet, but history tells us something has to happen. 

    Anyways, couple things to consider on what you mentioned. 

    1.) If you're able to get 90% LTV HELOC, would that change anything if you paid down your mortgage? Don't you still have access to 90% of your home's value and plus the 195K in cash?

    2.) If there is a market crash, you might not be able to get that 90% LTV HELOC. Also, your home's value would decline with the market, so you'd have access to that much less.

    You would however accomplish not paying interest on your mortgage. But I think there could be some other, safer ways to invest that 195K if you're not going right back into another flip or BRRRR.

    Best, 

  • Chris MasonPro Member
    Moderator
    Lender · CA · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    7y
    Originally posted by @Derek Sperzel:

    @Chris Mason Great feedback ,and certainly a cautionary tale worth remembering.  We weren't investing during the last downturn either, so we were fortunate in that regard, but we also missed some important lessons learned.

    So, would the lender be able to enact a "balance due" type clause in the event of a downturn, or would further draws simply cease?

    Not balance due, just additional draws cut off.

    Right now 11-14 years later we're actually still seeing a trickle of fallout. Take out the HELOC in 2007 with a 10 year interest only period, it's cut off from further draws in 2008, in 2017 it bumps up from the interest only payments to 20 year amortization, in 2019 those 20 year payments get tough and my phone rings for a debt consolidation refinance to drop someone's total payments $400/mo. There was a lot of that in 2015 to 2017, 10 years after various HELOCs were taken out, maxed out, and frozen. Just a trickle now, people that procrastinated or weren't feeling the pain of that 20 year amortization until recently.

  • Derek SperzelPro Member
    OP
    Rental Property Investor · Jeffersonville, IN · Member since 2012 · 72 posts · 40 votes
    7y

    @Chris Mason That makes a lot of sense, and we like not giving a lender the ability to "handcuff" our capital via ceasing draws against a HELOC. It seems like a compromise my be the prudent play here, whereas we'd keep the cash proceeds in a liquid low risk investment until we identify our next deal, and also utilize a HELOC to leverage the $120,000 of current equity we have. Even if the banks tighten up post-correction, we should be in a strong cash position to reap the opportunities that come our way. We will also continue refinancing out our initial investments as we've been doing. Thank you all for your input.

  • Rental Property Investor · Durham, NC · Member since 2016 · 7k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    7y

    @Derek Sperzel. My best advice is to sell everything at a 50 percent discount to market value to me. I will then resell it and make a lot of moola. But now you have money for the impending crash.

    Real estate cycles tend to move in 18 year cycles which means the next one is likely around 2027. Could be sooner but I don’t think it’s going to be in the next year or two. If the economy slows that doesn’t mean housing values tank. They could just stabilize

  • Investor · Akron, OH · Member since 2016 · 2k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    7y

    Might want to be careful with such a large line of credit, a HELOC can hurt your credit score.

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