Interest rate trends, CPI, and tariffs

[Zach Wain]

Today's CPI Report: A big win... but rates got worse.

Core CPI came in at 0.1% this morning — well below expectations of 0.3%. Under normal circumstances, this would be a clear green light for markets: cooling inflation = potential rate cuts = optimism. But not today.

Instead of rallying, markets remain jittery as tariff concerns and trade policy fears take center stage. Mortgage rates even ticked up slightly — a counterintuitive move on what should’ve been good inflation news.  This is a clear reminder that in today’s environment, macroeconomic data doesn’t move in a vacuum. Headlines, geopolitics, and policy shifts are increasingly shaping financial sentiment — sometimes more than the data itself.

In the past week, the avg 30 yr fixed rate jumped from 6.6% to 6.97% (per MND).

📊 Key takeaway: Even when inflation cools, the market’s reaction can heat up for different reasons. Keep your eyes on the full picture — not just the numbers.  The markets are uncertain and fearful of the future impact of tariffs and as a result mortgage rates have been volatile, ignoring low inflation numbers, and have seen a steady increase the past 4-5 days.  Hang on, it will likely be a bumpy ride with plenty of ups and downs in the near future