Are you familiar with the Miami condo market?

Question

I found a condo I want to purchase in Miami but I'm concerned about current market volatility. Is the market in free-fall, stable, or somewhere in-between?

Eric Brunner · Answer

@Eli Weiss

Ive seen a steady decline in Aventura condo prices over the past two years. Im a newbie getting started and I have check zillow religiously for Aventura for the past two years. You are asking the right question as Condo prices are volatile down here.

Elliot Vann · Answer

@Eli Weiss

Miami condos freak me out!

The basic theory of economics is supply and demand. In Miami there doesn’t seem to be any restrictions on building so new condo buildings go up every day. If you actually visit Miami Beach area at night you’ll see that about 75% of the condos are dark because people buy them just to have but don’t live in them.

Bottom line is I think there is oversupply which means it’s not a good investment. There are too many rental options and Covid is going to crash the AirBNB market there.

If they give them out for free, I might consider taking one, but otherwise tread carefully.

Anyone disagree?

Eric Brunner · Answer

@Eli Weiss

Not from what I have seen. Its been a consistent decline over the past two years. Just check some condos pricing history on Zillow for Aventura, FL and you will see what I mean. Also if your condo market rent stays flat or decreases, the HOA could still increase so be careful to understand the HOA terms and rules.

I have heard that the coronavirus will cause people to want to move out of condos and into single family to have more space. Thats an interesting idea but I don’t see condos losing their appeal as I love living in mine. That does not mean its a good investment though.

Ezra Sitt · Answer

@Eric Brunner what is driving the decrease - oversupply? I just took a look at some listings and I'm surprised condos are so cheap. I have family there and am considering moving to that area with my GF. Love Aventura, besides the traffic.

Mei Acosta · Answer

@Eli Weiss

I highly recommend becoming acquainted with the association rules as well as overall financials before moving forward. In my experience condos tend to not be the greatest investment for rentals in our market not to mention the added red tape placed by associations

I also work with tenants and most of them steer clear of associations. They can be hard to rent out!

Percy Matsunaga · Answer

@Eric Brunner

Thanks for the update in the FL market. I appreciate all the info.

Malgorzata Sadowska · Answer

depends where in Miami - Aventura, Sunny Isles and Brickell have been depressed for yours. Other areas (Miami Beach, for example) are actually increasing. I have stats for all the areas so feel free to message me & I am happy to share - update them monthly, as they come out.

Eli Weiss · Answer

Thanks for the detailed response!

Eric Brunner · Answer

@Percy Matsunaga

Prices are still high to cash flow on every MLS deal I’ve seen on Zillow. Many times the mortgage+property tax+Insurance+HOA will come in right at the monthly rent value or just below, leaving very little to no room for vacancy and repairs. Granted repairs should be less in condos given HOA covers outside your walls. Id be extra careful to understand cap ex spends with HOA especially in older condos that may need new painting or work done to balcony’s, etc.

I am not sure what the vacancy rate is in Aventura but people (including myself) love living in condos down here. Its such a nice area. Clean, safe and I can walk to everything I need / want.

To your point though, if its been sitting on the market for 200 plus days you may get them to take a low offer to make your numbers work. My concern would be not having enough profit for the next few years if values continuing dropping. From what I have seen rents have been stagnant though and I have not see a drop or increase past couple years. Therefore if rents don’t decrease you may not be overly concerned if values dropped for a year or two more.

Interesting discussion!

Percy Matsunaga · Answer

@Eric Brunner

Question: If the property is declining in price what is the average price of condos in FL? Compared to Aventura?

Could you still buy them at a reduced price and get them rented out?

Are you familiar with the Miami condo market?

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