Visitors to Great Smoky Mountains National Park off 1.2 million from 2023

[Collin Hays]

John Carbone, a fellow poster here, alerted me to this.  Some observations:  

1.  The all-time high was just over 14 million in 2021.  That's when real estate prices began to go parabolic.

2.  We are down 1.2 million in 2024 from 2023.

4.  According to our statistics, 2025 is down 8 percent from 2024.  We expect annual visitors this year to be in the 11.3 million range.

I heard a lot of "Well, even if demand falls 20 percent, I can still make it on 20 percent less rent."  The only problem with that is, the fall in rents is not linear to the fall in visitors.  Suddenly, we have fewer visitors, with more properties.  While we have some properties flat to slightly above last year, we have some that are down 30-40 percent.  

[Chris Seveney]

Quote from @Collin Hays:

John Carbone, a fellow poster here, alerted me to this.  Some observations:  

1.  The all-time high was just over 14 million in 2021.  That's when real estate prices began to go parabolic.

2.  We are down 1.2 million in 2024 from 2023.

4.  According to our statistics, 2025 is down 8 percent from 2024.  We expect annual visitors this year to be in the 11.3 million range.

I heard a lot of "Well, even if demand falls 20 percent, I can still make it on 20 percent less rent."  The only problem with that is, the fall in rents is not linear to the fall in visitors.  Suddenly, we have fewer visitors, with more properties.  While we have some properties flat to slightly above last year, we have some that are down 30-40 percent.  

 This will seperate the have's from have nots. Those that bought smart properties and manage them well will still be ok, those that were first time investors with no experience buying because of FOMO and are attempting to self manage will see a higher rate of default. 

We were working to acquire a NPN in gatlinburg that was sold in 2022 for $2M. We offered $1.2M for the note as the property realistically was worth $1.4M-$1.5M. Seller wanted $2M. Property went to foreclosure and sold for $1M at foreclosure...