Looking for Local Insight: 3BR/2.5BA STR near Lake Gregory AirDNA shows $37K revenue

[Parik Nukala]

Hi everyone,

I am exploring a short-term rental purchase near Lake Gregory in Crestline, CA, roughly within a 1-mile radius of the lake. The property I am evaluating is a 3 bed, 2.5 bath home that would primarily serve as a weekend getaway rental targeting Southern California visitors.

I pulled data from AirDNA, which projects the following for this area (high confidence score):

• Projected annual revenue: ~$37,000
• ADR: $266
• Occupancy: ~38%

On paper, those numbers seem reasonable, but I am looking for local or operator experience to sanity-check them.

A few questions I would love input on:

1. Do these revenue and occupancy levels align with your actual experience in Crestline?
2. Are there any unique seasonality patterns or hidden that new owners tend to underestimate?
3. Is 38% occupancy realistic for a well-furnished, professionally managed cabin near the lake, or should I underwrite closer to 25–30% to be conservative?
4. Any advice on preferred property layouts or amenities that perform best in this sub-market (for example, decks, hot tub, lake view, or easy winter access)?

I plan to self-manage initially and want to understand the local dynamics before moving forward.

Any first-hand experiences, data points, or general advice from owners in the area would be greatly appreciated.

[Andrew Steffens]

Hey Parik! Its great you are doing a deep dive on analysis prior to jumping in.  I will say this group is national (even some international) in nature and is not the best for resource for finding local data especially in niche markets.  I would recommend looking for local Facebook groups for more specific market info.  Good luck!