New member in Vancouver, BC seeking Alberta
Member since 2023 · 14 posts · 1 vote
New member in Vancouver, BC seeking Alberta
Most Popular Reply
Calgary, AB · Member since 2021 · 327 posts · 176 votes
2yQuote from @Taimur Khan:
Quote from @Stevo Sun:
Welcome to BP! I'm located in Calgary and our market has definitely gone up a decent amount with last run with everyone else. From a price standpoint we are still a lot cheaper than Vancouver and Toronto. But at the same time we also do not generate the same rents as those cities.
Alberta's economy is quite cyclical since our main industry is oil and gas. If you are betting on high appreciation then it might be a bit of a roller coaster. I think condo prices just got back to what the peak prices were in 2014. That's a lot of time without any appreciation (if you consider inflation, then you actually have depreciation).
I would be conscious of these things before making any investment decisions. Alberta is starting to diversify its economy, but it is still heavily dependent on oil and gas which is of course cyclical.
Don't know the future, but there are definitely some risks associated with Alberta. Personally I have a few properties here but I'm not actively seeking deals right now. However just like in any market, if you could find a good deal it can work.
DM me if you want to grab a coffee or something when you get into Calgary, always happy to chat real estate
Thank you Stevo! Truly appreciate your input as an investor in Calgary. Question; how have the rate hikes affected the local market/perspective in Calgary both for newcomers and those seeing their mortgage payments increase? Are sellers less willing to let go due to costs of a new mortgage? Is there a significant fear of defaults forcing sales?
Mortgage rate hikes impacts all debt holders the same way. It doesn't really matter if you are in Vancouver, Toronto, or Calgary. We don't have 30yr mortgages in Canada, so everyone will renew their mortgage some time. The rate increase will impact everyone if they stay higher and for longer. I don't think there is a significant fear of defaults, the mortgage amounts in the Calgary local market is not as high as Vancouver or Toronto due to the lower price points for the properties. The higher loan balance you have the more impact rate increases will have on your portfolio.
People in Calgary have been underwater from the 2007 peak and 2014 peak, but they were able to hold on to the properties. As long as people can afford the payments it is unlikely we'll see defaults. Personally I think price corrections can occur, but defaults are unlikely. I also think that markets where prices are much higher (aka. more debt) will crack first under the pressure of rate increases.
38 Replies
- 2yCody NeustaedterPro MemberReal Estate Agent · Winnipeg MB, Canada · Member since 2021 · 108 posts · 34 votes
Hi Tiamur! Welcome to Biggerpockets! I agree that the outlook for AB is good but I do know that there are some investors who live there and think its already saturated. It's all about perspective. What's even more important is the neighbourhood you buy in. Take my home city for example, Winnipeg, MB, has had a 6% appreciation rate per year over the last 19 years (compounded annually). However, there are some neighbourhoods that I don't even like driving clients through, and there are other neighbourhoods where the appreciation rate was too fast that it priced out a lot of buyers. I encourage you to do some more micro research on AB cities, as. There are some great realtors on here that operate out of Calgary. @Spencer Rivers and @Anthony Therrien-Bernard just to name a few.
Cheers!
- 2yTheresa HarrisPro MemberMember since 2019 · 15k+ posts · 11k+ votes
I know prices in both Edmonton and Calgary went down a lot a few years ago (8?). They have gone up again recently. I'm further south in Lethbridge and our market is quite different. Prices here have been stable for the last 10 years and have only started to go up recently. Location is important-both the city and the area in the city.
- Calgary, AB · Member since 2021 · 327 posts · 176 votes2y
Welcome to BP! I'm located in Calgary and our market has definitely gone up a decent amount with last run with everyone else. From a price standpoint we are still a lot cheaper than Vancouver and Toronto. But at the same time we also do not generate the same rents as those cities.
Alberta's economy is quite cyclical since our main industry is oil and gas. If you are betting on high appreciation then it might be a bit of a roller coaster. I think condo prices just got back to what the peak prices were in 2014. That's a lot of time without any appreciation (if you consider inflation, then you actually have depreciation).
I would be conscious of these things before making any investment decisions. Alberta is starting to diversify its economy, but it is still heavily dependent on oil and gas which is of course cyclical.
Don't know the future, but there are definitely some risks associated with Alberta. Personally I have a few properties here but I'm not actively seeking deals right now. However just like in any market, if you could find a good deal it can work.
DM me if you want to grab a coffee or something when you get into Calgary, always happy to chat real estate!
- Member since 2023 · 14 posts · 1 vote2y
Quote from @Cody Neustaedter:
Hi Tiamur! Welcome to Biggerpockets! I agree that the outlook for AB is good but I do know that there are some investors who live there and think its already saturated. It's all about perspective. What's even more important is the neighbourhood you buy in. Take my home city for example, Winnipeg, MB, has had a 6% appreciation rate per year over the last 19 years (compounded annually). However, there are some neighbourhoods that I don't even like driving clients through, and there are other neighbourhoods where the appreciation rate was too fast that it priced out a lot of buyers. I encourage you to do some more micro research on AB cities, as. There are some great realtors on here that operate out of Calgary. @Spencer Rivers and @Anthony Therrien-Bernard just to name a few.
Cheers!
Cheers Cody! Perspective is definitely playing a role. Here in YVR the rental ROI is quite low, and unless we go the route of Hong Kong, it's hard for us to see pricing increasing much more. Median family salaries are lower than both Calgary and Edmonton, and locals are starting to lose the idea that this is the "Best place on earth" or "Most livable city" or whatever PR slogan is put out there. At some point where do people draw the line and decide to move for a better quality of life within country?
To play devil's advocate many people claim they don't want to leave the lower mainland and are living "house poor" lives.
There is the constant stream of new immigrants as well who are finding it extremely difficult to sustain themselves here after their savings have dried up. What would their next steps be?
From our macro perspective, Calgary seems undervalued in comparison not only to Vancouver and TO, but also smaller cities like St Catharines, Windsor which IMO are not in the same class.
Could be completely off too though :)
- Member since 2023 · 14 posts · 1 vote2y
Quote from @Theresa Harris:
I know prices in both Edmonton and Calgary went down a lot a few years ago (8?). They have gone up again recently. I'm further south in Lethbridge and our market is quite different. Prices here have been stable for the last 10 years and have only started to go up recently. Location is important-both the city and the area in the city.
True, the lack of real cap gains thus far is not appetizing. What drives Lethbridge RE pricing?
- 2yTheresa HarrisPro MemberMember since 2019 · 15k+ posts · 11k+ votes
Quote from @Taimur Khan:
Quote from @Theresa Harris:
I know prices in both Edmonton and Calgary went down a lot a few years ago (8?). They have gone up again recently. I'm further south in Lethbridge and our market is quite different. Prices here have been stable for the last 10 years and have only started to go up recently. Location is important-both the city and the area in the city.
True, the lack of real cap gains thus far is not appetizing. What drives Lethbridge RE pricing?
honestly, I have no idea, but it sure isn't oil prices.
- Member since 2023 · 14 posts · 1 vote2y
Quote from @Stevo Sun:
Welcome to BP! I'm located in Calgary and our market has definitely gone up a decent amount with last run with everyone else. From a price standpoint we are still a lot cheaper than Vancouver and Toronto. But at the same time we also do not generate the same rents as those cities.
Alberta's economy is quite cyclical since our main industry is oil and gas. If you are betting on high appreciation then it might be a bit of a roller coaster. I think condo prices just got back to what the peak prices were in 2014. That's a lot of time without any appreciation (if you consider inflation, then you actually have depreciation).
I would be conscious of these things before making any investment decisions. Alberta is starting to diversify its economy, but it is still heavily dependent on oil and gas which is of course cyclical.
Don't know the future, but there are definitely some risks associated with Alberta. Personally I have a few properties here but I'm not actively seeking deals right now. However just like in any market, if you could find a good deal it can work.
DM me if you want to grab a coffee or something when you get into Calgary, always happy to chat real estate
Thank you Stevo! Truly appreciate your input as an investor in Calgary. Question; how have the rate hikes affected the local market/perspective in Calgary both for newcomers and those seeing their mortgage payments increase? Are sellers less willing to let go due to costs of a new mortgage? Is there a significant fear of defaults forcing sales?
- 2yCody NeustaedterPro MemberReal Estate Agent · Winnipeg MB, Canada · Member since 2021 · 108 posts · 34 votes
Quote from @Taimur Khan:
Quote from @Cody Neustaedter:
Hi Tiamur! Welcome to Biggerpockets! I agree that the outlook for AB is good but I do know that there are some investors who live there and think its already saturated. It's all about perspective. What's even more important is the neighbourhood you buy in. Take my home city for example, Winnipeg, MB, has had a 6% appreciation rate per year over the last 19 years (compounded annually). However, there are some neighbourhoods that I don't even like driving clients through, and there are other neighbourhoods where the appreciation rate was too fast that it priced out a lot of buyers. I encourage you to do some more micro research on AB cities, as. There are some great realtors on here that operate out of Calgary. @Spencer Rivers and @Anthony Therrien-Bernard just to name a few.
Cheers!
Cheers Cody! Perspective is definitely playing a role. Here in YVR the rental ROI is quite low, and unless we go the route of Hong Kong, it's hard for us to see pricing increasing much more. Median family salaries are lower than both Calgary and Edmonton, and locals are starting to lose the idea that this is the "Best place on earth" or "Most livable city" or whatever PR slogan is put out there. At some point where do people draw the line and decide to move for a better quality of life within country?
To play devil's advocate many people claim they don't want to leave the lower mainland and are living "house poor" lives.
There is the constant stream of new immigrants as well who are finding it extremely difficult to sustain themselves here after their savings have dried up. What would their next steps be?
From our macro perspective, Calgary seems undervalued in comparison not only to Vancouver and TO, but also smaller cities like St Catharines, Windsor which IMO are not in the same class.
Could be completely off too though :)
Yes I agree that in the Macro sense I do believe Alberta will continue to grow. Especially with the lower tax rates and more favorable landlord laws then other provinces. I like to think of Alberta as Canada's Texas, which has seen tremendous growth due to a cheaper lifestyle and more affordable housing than the west coast of the US.
- Calgary, AB · Member since 2021 · 327 posts · 176 votes2y
Quote from @Taimur Khan:
Quote from @Stevo Sun:
Welcome to BP! I'm located in Calgary and our market has definitely gone up a decent amount with last run with everyone else. From a price standpoint we are still a lot cheaper than Vancouver and Toronto. But at the same time we also do not generate the same rents as those cities.
Alberta's economy is quite cyclical since our main industry is oil and gas. If you are betting on high appreciation then it might be a bit of a roller coaster. I think condo prices just got back to what the peak prices were in 2014. That's a lot of time without any appreciation (if you consider inflation, then you actually have depreciation).
I would be conscious of these things before making any investment decisions. Alberta is starting to diversify its economy, but it is still heavily dependent on oil and gas which is of course cyclical.
Don't know the future, but there are definitely some risks associated with Alberta. Personally I have a few properties here but I'm not actively seeking deals right now. However just like in any market, if you could find a good deal it can work.
DM me if you want to grab a coffee or something when you get into Calgary, always happy to chat real estate
Thank you Stevo! Truly appreciate your input as an investor in Calgary. Question; how have the rate hikes affected the local market/perspective in Calgary both for newcomers and those seeing their mortgage payments increase? Are sellers less willing to let go due to costs of a new mortgage? Is there a significant fear of defaults forcing sales?
Mortgage rate hikes impacts all debt holders the same way. It doesn't really matter if you are in Vancouver, Toronto, or Calgary. We don't have 30yr mortgages in Canada, so everyone will renew their mortgage some time. The rate increase will impact everyone if they stay higher and for longer. I don't think there is a significant fear of defaults, the mortgage amounts in the Calgary local market is not as high as Vancouver or Toronto due to the lower price points for the properties. The higher loan balance you have the more impact rate increases will have on your portfolio.
People in Calgary have been underwater from the 2007 peak and 2014 peak, but they were able to hold on to the properties. As long as people can afford the payments it is unlikely we'll see defaults. Personally I think price corrections can occur, but defaults are unlikely. I also think that markets where prices are much higher (aka. more debt) will crack first under the pressure of rate increases.
- Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes2y
Welcome to BP @Taimur Khan
District Invest Group546 Reviews - Investor · Vancouver BC · Member since 2020 · 88 posts · 60 votes2y
Hi TK,
Try looking up Mogul Mastermind. It is all RE investor focused. Offices in Edmonton and Vancouver. The next meeting is November 29th, 2023 5:30 pm PST / 6:30 pm MST.
You can go in person if you are in Edmonton or by zoom if elsewhere.
Cheers
- 2yRiver SavaPro MemberLender · USA · Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
Welcome, Taimur!
- Real Estate Agent · Calgary, Alberta · Member since 2018 · 8 posts · 5 votes2y
Hi Taimur, in the case of Calgary where me and @Anthony Therrien-Bernard work (Calgary Real Estate Investor Hub), alot of what is driving the market is a combination of new job growth, large in-migration into Calgary, the interest rate situation and the relative affordability compared to the YVR and Toronto markets. We used to be a cyclical market and were quite dependent on the oil and gas industry but that seems to be changing. Even today, capital expenditures in the oil and gas industry are well below 2014 boom levels pointing to the reduced reliance on oil and gas industry.
To answer your question of whether homes with suites or small multi family is better. The answer would really depend on your hold period and what you are trying to achieve. There's pro and cons of both of these properties types depending on where in the city you are buying. Perhaps we can setup a time to discuss this. - Member since 2023 · 14 posts · 1 vote2y
Quote from @Stevo Sun:
Quote from @Taimur Khan:
Quote from @Stevo Sun:
Welcome to BP! I'm located in Calgary and our market has definitely gone up a decent amount with last run with everyone else. From a price standpoint we are still a lot cheaper than Vancouver and Toronto. But at the same time we also do not generate the same rents as those cities.
Alberta's economy is quite cyclical since our main industry is oil and gas. If you are betting on high appreciation then it might be a bit of a roller coaster. I think condo prices just got back to what the peak prices were in 2014. That's a lot of time without any appreciation (if you consider inflation, then you actually have depreciation).
I would be conscious of these things before making any investment decisions. Alberta is starting to diversify its economy, but it is still heavily dependent on oil and gas which is of course cyclical.
Don't know the future, but there are definitely some risks associated with Alberta. Personally I have a few properties here but I'm not actively seeking deals right now. However just like in any market, if you could find a good deal it can work.
DM me if you want to grab a coffee or something when you get into Calgary, always happy to chat real estate
Thank you Stevo! Truly appreciate your input as an investor in Calgary. Question; how have the rate hikes affected the local market/perspective in Calgary both for newcomers and those seeing their mortgage payments increase? Are sellers less willing to let go due to costs of a new mortgage? Is there a significant fear of defaults forcing sales?
Mortgage rate hikes impacts all debt holders the same way. It doesn't really matter if you are in Vancouver, Toronto, or Calgary. We don't have 30yr mortgages in Canada, so everyone will renew their mortgage some time. The rate increase will impact everyone if they stay higher and for longer. I don't think there is a significant fear of defaults, the mortgage amounts in the Calgary local market is not as high as Vancouver or Toronto due to the lower price points for the properties. The higher loan balance you have the more impact rate increases will have on your portfolio.
People in Calgary have been underwater from the 2007 peak and 2014 peak, but they were able to hold on to the properties. As long as people can afford the payments it is unlikely we'll see defaults. Personally I think price corrections can occur, but defaults are unlikely. I also think that markets where prices are much higher (aka. more debt) will crack first under the pressure of rate increases.
Thanks Stevo. This trip out we are on a really tight schedule as my fellow investor only has 2 days free. However in an upcoming trip would be great to connect and have a coffee.
- Member since 2023 · 14 posts · 1 vote2y
- Member since 2023 · 14 posts · 1 vote2y
Quote from @Wendell Fong:
Hi TK,
Try looking up Mogul Mastermind. It is all RE investor focused. Offices in Edmonton and Vancouver. The next meeting is November 29th, 2023 5:30 pm PST / 6:30 pm MST.
You can go in person if you are in Edmonton or by zoom if elsewhere.
Cheers
Hi Wendell, thanks for the tip. Actually we were referred to an agent who is affiliated with/works with this group, but the scheduling didn't coincide. Worth a zoom gander.
- Member since 2023 · 14 posts · 1 vote2y
- Member since 2023 · 14 posts · 1 vote2y
Quote from @Santhosh Nathan:
Hi Taimur, in the case of Calgary where me and @Anthony Therrien-Bernard work (Calgary Real Estate Investor Hub), alot of what is driving the market is a combination of new job growth, large in-migration into Calgary, the interest rate situation and the relative affordability compared to the YVR and Toronto markets. We used to be a cyclical market and were quite dependent on the oil and gas industry but that seems to be changing. Even today, capital expenditures in the oil and gas industry are well below 2014 boom levels pointing to the reduced reliance on oil and gas industry.
To answer your question of whether homes with suites or small multi family is better. The answer would really depend on your hold period and what you are trying to achieve. There's pro and cons of both of these properties types depending on where in the city you are buying. Perhaps we can setup a time to discuss this.Hi Santosh, thanks for your feedback. Feel that's in line with our thinking. I may reach out in the near future for a chat.
- Real Estate Agent · Calgary, Alberta · Member since 2018 · 8 posts · 5 votes2y
Quote from @Taimur Khan:
Quote from @Santhosh Nathan:
Hi Taimur, in the case of Calgary where me and @Anthony Therrien-Bernard work (Calgary Real Estate Investor Hub), alot of what is driving the market is a combination of new job growth, large in-migration into Calgary, the interest rate situation and the relative affordability compared to the YVR and Toronto markets. We used to be a cyclical market and were quite dependent on the oil and gas industry but that seems to be changing. Even today, capital expenditures in the oil and gas industry are well below 2014 boom levels pointing to the reduced reliance on oil and gas industry.
To answer your question of whether homes with suites or small multi family is better. The answer would really depend on your hold period and what you are trying to achieve. There's pro and cons of both of these properties types depending on where in the city you are buying. Perhaps we can setup a time to discuss this.Hi Santosh, thanks for your feedback. Feel that's in line with our thinking. I may reach out in the near future for a chat.
Sounds good! Cheers.
- Rental Property Investor · Edmonton, Alberta · Member since 2015 · 307 posts · 200 votes2yJust another perspective from a born & raised Edmontonian and investor. Since we’ve had so little appreciation these past 9 years, that to me means that we have catching up to do. I believe you’re on track in saying that city as a whole is undervalued. I expect there to be appreciation as more people and investors move in from unaffordable places in the country. This is the time to get in before the wave, that will happen if/when interest rates come down.
Quote from @Taimur Khan:
Quote from @Theresa Harris:
I know prices in both Edmonton and Calgary went down a lot a few years ago (8?). They have gone up again recently. I'm further south in Lethbridge and our market is quite different. Prices here have been stable for the last 10 years and have only started to go up recently. Location is important-both the city and the area in the city.
True, the lack of real cap gains thus far is not appetizing. What drives Lethbridge RE pricing?
when are you in Edmonton?
there’s a big difference in financing options and rules between buying a 4plex and a 5+ unit building, as 4 is residential and 5+ is commercial.
Edmonton is experiencing a shift of people moving into new build and infill due to recent zoning bylaw changes that encourage infill and the cmhc changes discouraging value-add multifamily.
Where the opportunity may be is picking up a property that someone improved but can’t refinance because of the sudden rule changes and now needs to sell. - Member since 2023 · 14 posts · 1 vote2y
Quote from @Zorya Belanger:
Just another perspective from a born & raised Edmontonian and investor. Since we’ve had so little appreciation these past 9 years, that to me means that we have catching up to do. I believe you’re on track in saying that city as a whole is undervalued. I expect there to be appreciation as more people and investors move in from unaffordable places in the country. This is the time to get in before the wave, that will happen if/when interest rates come down.Quote from @Taimur Khan:
Quote from @Theresa Harris:
I know prices in both Edmonton and Calgary went down a lot a few years ago (8?). They have gone up again recently. I'm further south in Lethbridge and our market is quite different. Prices here have been stable for the last 10 years and have only started to go up recently. Location is important-both the city and the area in the city.
True, the lack of real cap gains thus far is not appetizing. What drives Lethbridge RE pricing?
when are you in Edmonton?
there’s a big difference in financing options and rules between buying a 4plex and a 5+ unit building, as 4 is residential and 5+ is commercial.
Edmonton is experiencing a shift of people moving into new build and infill due to recent zoning bylaw changes that encourage infill and the cmhc changes discouraging value-add multifamily.
Where the opportunity may be is picking up a property that someone improved but can’t refinance because of the sudden rule changes and now needs to sell.Great tip and interesting profile. PMing you.
- 2yRob DaloisePro MemberMember since 2022 · 3 posts · 0 votes
Quote from @Zorya Belanger:
Just another perspective from a born & raised Edmontonian and investor. Since we’ve had so little appreciation these past 9 years, that to me means that we have catching up to do. I believe you’re on track in saying that city as a whole is undervalued. I expect there to be appreciation as more people and investors move in from unaffordable places in the country. This is the time to get in before the wave, that will happen if/when interest rates come down.Quote from @Taimur Khan:
Quote from @Theresa Harris:
I know prices in both Edmonton and Calgary went down a lot a few years ago (8?). They have gone up again recently. I'm further south in Lethbridge and our market is quite different. Prices here have been stable for the last 10 years and have only started to go up recently. Location is important-both the city and the area in the city.
True, the lack of real cap gains thus far is not appetizing. What drives Lethbridge RE pricing?
when are you in Edmonton?
there’s a big difference in financing options and rules between buying a 4plex and a 5+ unit building, as 4 is residential and 5+ is commercial.
Edmonton is experiencing a shift of people moving into new build and infill due to recent zoning bylaw changes that encourage infill and the cmhc changes discouraging value-add multifamily.
Where the opportunity may be is picking up a property that someone improved but can’t refinance because of the sudden rule changes and now needs to sell. - 2yRob DaloisePro MemberMember since 2022 · 3 posts · 0 votesZorya,
Would you mind explaining what "cmhc changes discouraging value-add multifamily." means? I'm not certain what changes you are referring to and how they discourage value-add multifamily investment.
Thanks in advance!
Rob - Rental Property Investor · Edmonton, Alberta · Member since 2015 · 307 posts · 200 votes2ySure, recently in order to stop “renovictions” they have implemented new rules that say that you have to be with an approved lender for 24 months (during which period you can not do significant renovations) before you can refinance with CMHC. Those who got a bridge loan with an unapproved lender or private money suddenly are stuck and would need to refinance with an approved lender and then hold for two years and then refinance with CMHC. It’s really put a lot of people in a difficult situation and many are selling. There’s been suddenly a lot more multifamily inventory on the market.
Quote from @Rob Daloise:
Zorya,
Would you mind explaining what "cmhc changes discouraging value-add multifamily." means? I'm not certain what changes you are referring to and how they discourage value-add multifamily investment.
Thanks in advance!
Rob - 2yRob DaloisePro MemberMember since 2022 · 3 posts · 0 votes
Quote from @Zorya Belanger:
Sure, recently in order to stop “renovictions” they have implemented new rules that say that you have to be with an approved lender for 24 months (during which period you can not do significant renovations) before you can refinance with CMHC. Those who got a bridge loan with an unapproved lender or private money suddenly are stuck and would need to refinance with an approved lender and then hold for two years and then refinance with CMHC. It’s really put a lot of people in a difficult situation and many are selling. There’s been suddenly a lot more multifamily inventory on the market.Quote from @Rob Daloise:
Zorya,
Would you mind explaining what "cmhc changes discouraging value-add multifamily." means? I'm not certain what changes you are referring to and how they discourage value-add multifamily investment.
Thanks in advance!
Rob
Thanks for the info Zorya!
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