It's a terrific day in San Francisco

9 Replies

Hi all, officially now a new member of BP. Though been a reader off and on for a while. Looking forward to interacting with you all on here, providing advice, seeking advice, and so forth. A little about me: Realtor right in the city of SF for 15 years. Midwestern born and educated (Chicago, Indianapolis, Columbus, Oh), and spent 3 yrs in Denver. Bought my first place in Denver at 24y/o...condo in historic Capitol Hill chopped up mansion conversion. Been building ever sense. Nice little portfolio of 2 SFR in SF, 2 condos in SF, 2 houses in an Oakland/SF suburb Richmond, CA. Have done 10 flips over the years as well in Bay Area. Sitting in a great cash flow and appreciation position.

In reading it seems like there is a lot of back and forth in investment opinion/strategy of California appreciation game vs. midwest cash flow game.  Both are valid.  

Question: Where are locations or styles of property that likely offer good appreciation and good cash flow?  "Good and reasonable"...not extremes of Cali or Indianapolis.  Like other trendy growing cities such as Austin, Portland, Denver, Raleigh/Durham?  Or play demographic trend and do B/C level Florida locations, Arizona, ??    Ultimately when I no longer want to be a Realtor and also manage my individual California properties (semi-retire), will hopefully have a large chunk of equity to 1031 into larger multifamily somewhere.

Or style?  Mixed use, commercial, college town student housing, etc?

Thanks all.

John

Originally posted by @John Barnette :

Question: Where are locations or styles of property that likely offer good appreciation and good cash flow?  "Good and reasonable"...not extremes of Cali or Indianapolis.  

Welcome to BP from your neighbor in the South Bay. It looks like you've got some great experience to share on here. I have to say that I've never seen Cali or Indianapolis in the same sentence when it comes to appreciation. Indy has certainly seen stronger than usual appreciation the last couple of years (about 8.5% this year), but that's been recovery driven like on many other markets. Having said that though, Clear Capital predicts that the Midwest will be the fastest appreciating region of the U.S. this year. I like both Kansas City and Indianapolis for cash flow and stable prices.

Should clarify: Coasts for appreciation and middle states for cash flow.  Generally speaking of course.  Though most markets have had nice appreciation in last few years with less distress sales and improving economy.

@John Barnette  Hi and welcome to BiggerPockets! I assume you mean Indy has good cash flow, but not the appreciation, while Cali has appreciation without the cashflow; and your looking for something in between that has some of both - the answer may be the holly grail.  What you want to do is focus on one, while giving due consideration to the other.  For example investing for cash flow and taking appreciation as a bonus, but focusing in areas that are not going to deflate  - and have reasonable appreciation currently with growth in population, employment, and other good economic indicators.

Hi John,

If you'd like some info on what's hot in Austin I'd be happy to give you a virtual tour. There's a lot happening quickly here and there is still tons of opportunity.

Have you been to Austin or are you just hearing things?

Thanks,

Yoni

@John Barnette   hey there. I totally relate to your experience with SF properties, as I've done similar myself!  Check out my profile, and my comments on other's posts here and you'll get a feel for my POV and orientation (hint: I'm very pro long term buy and hold in SF.)

I'm swamped next week, as I just closed on a duplex+ inlaw in Bayview, but would be open to meeting with you a week or two out to exchange "war stories" ;)   There are also local meetups that J. M.  set up. They'll probably chime in here and you can get upcoming meetup info from them. 

At any rate, welcome!

@Amit M.  ,

Thanks for reaching out. John, you should definitely meet with Amit too.

@John Barnette  ,

You'll probably hear some SF/Peninsula investors on here that will never take their equity made in the Bay to invest out of state. But others have and will continue to do so.. All depends on your outlook, and how much you need the cash flow. (Or go for the 1% rule in Oakland & Richmond, but that's tougher with piles of cash unless we're in the next trough of the cycle). @Minh Le  , @Johnson H.  , what do you think? Cash out Bay Area equity for out of state MF? A much-debated topic. But @Mark Gagner seems to be doing well with it in TX..

Regarding other "appreciation" markets, Austin has been on fire, and has some unique "hot" characteristics like the job scene, tech, desirable for young folks, location, etc. I've heard about Portland, but don't know about their jobs as much.. Denver has been on fire w/ rent increases also from what I understand. Not sure if you're looking for the "hot now" or the "next hot market.."

I already sent you a message if you want to meet up sometime John. Welcome to the local crew!

@John Barnette  welcome to the site!  Cleveland is a great place to invest.  Economy on the rise, lots of inventory, good mix of residential/commercial.  Great cash flow and the appreciation is there.

http://www.neighborhoodscout.com/oh/cleveland/rates/#data

Gentrifying neighborhoods is your answer. They can be found in almost any market including the Bay area. Buy on the fringe of a hot area, and watch as your rents rise and values appreciate. It's also exciting to be part of a team dedicated to cleaning up an urban neighborhood.

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