What will happen when forbearance ends? Bubble?

[Jake Celler]

There has been a lot of speculation on what will happen in the housing market during 2020. Personally I am waiting for a critical point that will likely tell us a lot about COVIDs impact on real estate. The end of forbearance! What are your thoughts? Do you believe this will be a good indicator?

Interesting facts:

-7.5% mortgages currently in forbearance (if there was no forbearance that's a lot of defaults)

-1/2 million people being added every week

-Mortgage delinquencies up 1.6 million in April (highest jump in history)

-Mortgage Debt: 10 trillion in US

-Unemployment Rate: 16% (people worried a lot higher)

-U6 includes (part-time) : 23%

-Number of homes taken off-market: 150% 

Key Questions:

Will mortgage servicers be impacted?

How many people will keep their homes after 6 months?