Miami Real Estate Is About To Collapse…

4 Replies

I am not a local investor in Florida, I just want to get some perspective of how locals feel about this article I found on Adventures In Capitalism. It's a investment site by a hedge fund manager, and in this post he interviews one of his friends that's a hard money lender in Miami - who sees Miami real estate (especially high end condos) starting to crash quickly.

http://adventuresincapitalism.com/2019/09/25/miami-real-estate-collapse/

I cant't speak to the Miami market, But here in the Tampa/St. Pete/Clearwater area, we don't see that being the case. Most recent numbers from August show an increase in median time to contract of 29% over last year from 28 to 36 days. Inventory is up slightly (about 9%). This doesn't mean that the trend will continue, and I do believe we are in for a correction. However it's going to remain to be seen just how hard and fast it will be. Personally, I don't see a "crash" like 2008, but the coming months could bring an excellent opportunity for investors.

@Leonardo Candoza Yep, exactly.  The sky in Miami started filling up with cranes again just after the condo market stabilized. The South American/Venezuela money looking for a safe place to be parked is what saved it last time...all the money is out of Venezuela now that could get out....no more lifelines.

Originally posted by @Leonardo Candoza :

I am not a local investor in Florida, I just want to get some perspective of how locals feel about this article I found on Adventures In Capitalism. It's a investment site by a hedge fund manager, and in this post he interviews one of his friends that's a hard money lender in Miami - who sees Miami real estate (especially high end condos) starting to crash quickly.

http://adventuresincapitalism.com/2019/09/25/miami-real-estate-collapse/

Before anyone reads this whole article, it is talking specifically about luxury assets. These are not the bulk of transactions being conducted here so I am not sure how big of an impact it will have on the rest of the market.


 

We have 10 rental properties in Miami but split into the blue collar market & condo units. We purchased half of our assets right after the crash of 2008 & those are very profitable. However, prices are getting pretty steep and while rents are high as well, there aren't as many tenants able to afford the rates. This makes it harder to find quality tenants who can afford to stay.

As far as luxury condos, you can see driving around those areas there are many vacant places.