Curious — How Are You Currently Evaluating Flip Deals?

[Oluwaseyi Odusami]

Hey Folks — I’ve been digging into how we as investors analyze deals beyond spreadsheets and wanted to ask:
What tools or workflows are you currently using to get:
✅ ARV comps
✅ Rehab estimates (Automated..)
✅ ROI and profit clarity

I’m building something new in this space, but I’m trying to better understand real-world needs from active flippers. Would love to hear what’s working for you — or what’s still frustrating.

[E. James Jackson]

Hello! Personally, I use the following methods:

1. ARV Comps: As a licensed agent in my area, I utilize the MLS and REALTOR Property Resource for Comparative Market Analysis. Depending on your relationship with your agent, you may be able to have them perform this for you. Otherwise, I previously used Zillow filters to pull comparable properties and then applied their price per square foot to my subject property. When searching for comps, I look for properties within 300 square feet, built within the same decade, sold within the last six months, similar finishes, and with the same bed and bath floor plan. While I may not always find properties that meet all these criteria, these are my ideal parameters. In my opinion, After Repair Value (ARV) is the most critical component of deal analysis.

2. Rehab Estimates: Initially, I typically estimated rehab costs based on an average price per square foot, depending on the project's scope. However, my approach has become much more refined with experience. If you have a close relationship with a general contractor (GC), you can also ask for rough estimates based on photos for your initial analysis. Additionally, RSMeans offers books with detailed job costing data, though that might be more detail than necessary for most initial analyses.

3. Profitability: I have established minimum profit thresholds required to pursue a deal, which vary based on the project's size and associated risk. These thresholds will differ for everyone, but for flipping, I consider the timeline, total project cost, and location to assess risk. For higher-risk projects, my minimum profit threshold is 20%; for medium-risk projects (which constitute most), it's 15%; and for fast, easy, low-risk projects, it's 10%. I have a risk matrix spreadsheet that I use to automatically pull the applicable risk premium based on the zip, sqft, timeline, and budget. 

I hope this information is helpful. If you are developing a tool to streamline this process, I would be very interested in discussing how it could work in more depth. As a CPA primarily working with real estate investors, flippers, and developers, I've gained significant insight into needs and preferences regarding deal analysis. Please feel free to reach out anytime if I can be of assistance!