Could use your help determining ARV on a duplex (Newbie warning)

[Mark J.]

The duplex is REO (2 yrs vacant), 6 bed/4 bath/2,200 sqf. Purchase price= $44,900. Est. repairs= $35K. My

COMPS: There are six duplexes, exactly the same, on the same block, but no recent sales:

$115,000 (sold 10/2004)

$162,000 (sold 8/2004)

$135,000 (sold 12/1989)

In the duplex next door, a neighbor I spoke with is paying $850/month on his 3/2 unit and moved in three months ago. 

DUPLEX COMPS:

• Duplex, 4/2/1,350 sqf @ $40K (1/15) – 2.5 mi away (foreclosure)
• Duplex, 4/4/1,800 sqf @ $90K (11/14) – 2.5 mi away
• Duplex, 6/2/1,400 sqf @ $64K (6/14) – 2.5 mi away

TOWNHOUSE COMPS
In a 100-unit townhouse complex 1/8 mile away: 

SOLD: One unit (3/2.5/1,600 sqf) @ $85K on 10/13 and two units (2/2.5/1,600 sqf) @ $92K in 2014  
RENT: Currently asking $1,100 for the 2/2.5 (1,600 sqf) (x4 units avail)

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In an 80-unit complex ¼ mile away:

SOLD: Four units (all 2/1.5/1,150 sqf) sold between $68 - $73K in 2014

RENT: Currently asking $950-$1075 (x2 units avail)

Many thanks in advance!

Mark...