Hey i was curious to see what people are seeing in the NYC Market. Im starting to see a recovery starting as prices have come down a bit and theres some interest in well priced assets. Residential sales are up, leasing activity is up, and anecdotally from my perch in downtown Manhattan i can tell you its starting to get busy again. Industrial is on fire, retail is starting to bottom out, and sellers are beginning to adjust their expectations on multifamily assets and they are starting to trade again. And all the suburbs here are hot too for all asset classes. Plus the Knicks are good again! So my question is...what say you? What are you seeing?
PS- Im not interested in hearing from out of state investors who dont live/invest here who just want to take pot shots at our city and politics. Im well aware of the issues we face here thank you very much. Take your negativity to someone else's post its simply not productive.
Hey Allan, good topic discussion & kudos to you for bringing it up. I’m out of the Bronx, Castle Hill area. From what I hear from other rental property holders/landlords is harsh in terms of months of missed rent from tenants who’d either lost their jobs or those who’d rather take advantage of the situation. Eviction processes are still taking place as long as the moratorium continues although should be expiring in May. Fact is we need our city to open up already. It’s passed due. Over 5.4 mill ppl vaccinated & the positivity rate is low for ex: 7-day avg for Manhattan is 2%. Fortunately I’ve solid tenants & don’t have tenant issues. But landlords are getting slammed w/bills & the state is not forgiving or helpful to them. Still some of hedged ourselves w/other streams of income & are making it. Soon we will be open fully. Glad to hear other NYer’s POV & what’s taking place around the state. And yes Go Knicks! 6 in a row?! Looking good keep it up.
Yeah thats pretty much the story most landlords are telling. Im not sure the situation is as dire as people thought there arent that many landlords looking to sell at any price at this point and if and when the federal rent dollars hit their intended targets that will help as well. Most people are willing to hold on even if they are losing some money in the short term. Yeah the city needs to open up some more and i think people looking for big discounts are going to be disappointed. That being said i think its a good time for people to buy given that the bottom is most likely in for NYC.
Overall there is good outlook. Manhattan has surprised me with lower foot traffic than usual. To me that means office has not recovered so the daily lunch goers are low and Manhattan retail will recover slowly. I'll say this I can't foresee a drop in retail for the other boroughs as they serve the community well. I'm helping someone with a MF refi in Brooklyn and the asset is stable. Other have said the same. There is momentum in general so values would hold on commercial. That moratorium issue issue is a residential play. We'd have to see to outcome.
Oh yeah barely anyone is back to the office but it was always super weird how they framed that as just an NYC problem. Are there not offices in other cities? It happens to be that office leasing is actually getting strong in Brooklyn and the suburbs so its not like companies are abandoning their offices wholesale but they are looking to make it a smaller piece of their overhead. The talent is still in NYC and wants to be in NYC. The recent drop in residential rent prices (20% according to some) is actually going to help the city in the long term as that was one of the biggest reason people wouldn't come here. Bottom line is the outlook is definitely getting brighter and anyone who said the city was dead for good is wrong again as they have always been.
Hey Allan, I lived in New York for over 25 years now, and I agree with the general premise that it's demise has been greatly exaggerated by news stories and those who don't live here. Every cafe is pretty much packed, traffic is terrible again, and you can't get a seat on the train.
All that said, the rental market has certainly softened, I know this from experience of trying to rent out one of my units and chatting with my fellow NYC landlord buddies. Most of our tenants are asking for reductions or renewing at 10-15% less their previous lease price. The incredibly low interest rates have certainly helped keep the sales market healthy, especially the townhouse segment.
As far as people going back to work, I absolutely notice a huge uptick in people being dressed up, which I assume means back in the office. I believe the city is as crowded as ever, but there certainly has been a demographic shift, where you see less families and much more 20 and 30 somethings, although that could just be me showing my age.