New Investor - Speculating appreciation rates in Lake Oswego, OR

2 Replies

Hello all,

I'm a new investor in the Portland, OR area and new to investing in real estate in general. I plan to focus on SFH for now and see where it goes in the future. Given the uncertainty of the new tenant laws in Oregon, I have decided to invest in my area of Lake Oswego, which I believe will have a better chance for more reliable clientele.

However, without being too creative in finding deals and going by the MLS, there does not seem to be much cash flow if I use traditional financing with 20%-25% down. It seems these will be more of appreciation buy and holds.

My question is, what is a reasonable conservative appreciation rate in Lake Oswego?  Is this even something that can be speculated?  I'm also sure it would depend on different locations in the city. 

If anyone has some insight, I'd love to hear it.   

well most on BP will tell you speculation is gambling blah blah blah.

there are not many properties bought for rentals in Lake O given the price points.

right when I say that the house 2 doors down from me just sold for mid 400s and they rented it.. rents cant be more than maybe 2500.00 now maybe its a family member or something. 

you can find older properties in the lake grove area of Lake O.. but generally speaking this is all owner occ stuff and very little MF duplex etc.

appreciation of course has been spectacular last 6 or 7 years.. but its leveled off now.. 

as for solid property to own   for that's the case ..  the rent control would be moot in this area as you would be renting to the top of the rental pool

@Jay Hinrichs  Thanks for your input.  Yes, I have seen in many discussions that appreciation is considered speculation. That's also how the stock market is perceived - past performance does not guarantee future returns.

I think I will approach this by using very crude estimates from the housing price index.  Nationally it's something like a 3.4% increase.  Using Portland data (certainly will be different than Lake O), the index would suggest low-2% appreciation from 1988-2004.  I'll just use this as a conservative estimate since the last 15 years would be the more "hopeful" estimate.  

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