Grays Ferry Flip vs Any other Flip

14 Replies | Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

I've noticed ARVs higher in 19146 (north of Tasker) than in 19145. Typically the ARVs will be higher in Gray's the closer you are to Washington/GFA and the further east you are toward 25th St.

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Totally agree with @Alex Uman here. I have a house hack in Point Breeze. Things have definitely spilled over 25th but the closer you are to the development on Washington the better. 

Pointbreeze Ave also has a ton of ongoing development and there are a few huge developments down by Oregon that are slated for next year. 

For the right price, I think it absolutely makes sense.

Keep in mind the further south and west you go the closer you are to two of the most used highways in Philly, 76 and 95. 

Originally posted by @Noelle Carter :

For the right price, I think it absolutely makes sense.

Keep in mind the further south and west you go the closer you are to two of the most used highways in Philly, 76 and 95. 

 You’re definitely right and as mentioned those areas have a lower arv for the moment however it could make sense to rent them out and cash out refi and hold onto them

@John Baker absolutely. If you can get one for the right price, do a nice rehab without breaking the bank, refi and rent for a few years you'll likely make more reselling if you rehab again (adding bathrooms, finishing basement and adding HVAC) after renting it out for 5-10 years. ARV will be higher plus you'll already have the equity + rental income. I'm a big fan of the BRRR->Flip as a long term strategy for such areas.

Originally posted by @Alex Uman :

@John Baker absolutely. If you can get one for the right price, do a nice rehab without breaking the bank, refi and rent for a few years you'll likely make more reselling if you rehab again (adding bathrooms, finishing basement and adding HVAC) after renting it out for 5-10 years. ARV will be higher plus you'll already have the equity + rental income. I'm a big fan of the BRRR->Flip as a long term strategy for such areas.

 Yeah I definitely agree. What’s the maximum price you’d pay for something out there around 900-1000 sqft? I see a lot priced kind of high 130s 

@John Baker I just sold one in that area for $130k with a very deep basement (former garage) and new development around the block. It really does depend on the block and interior condition at the end of the day.

@John Baker In agreement with @Alex Uman  + @Noelle Carter the further North + East the better you are. Once your west of 25th it becomes very block by block and almost gives the feel what Point Breeze was 3 years ago. If you drive around Wharton Square park you will see new construction on every block and this trend will continue to push west.

@Dan Powers and @Alex Uman yeah that’s a great take by both of you. I believe that point breeze right now it’s hard to come by anything good so I’ll have to take something out west of 25th st rehab and rent and keep it for the long term while new development continues to push out that way. I’m usually looking for that pocket of that city that’s has something new rehabs but hasn’t been fully hit yet

I just finished a BRRRR on the 1600 block of S. 26th that appraised for $285k, two story, 1100 sq ft, no finished basement. Insane. Anyway, point is, the area doesn't really matter as much as the numbers for each specific deal. You can lose money in the best of areas and make money in the worst of areas. If they're both the same price and both need the same amount of work then you should take the higher ARV one, it's a no brainer, but I doubt they're both the same size, need the same amount of work, etc. You have to run comps and make a decision based on the numbers.

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Originally posted by @Noelle Carter :

For the right price, I think it absolutely makes sense.

Keep in mind the further south and west you go the closer you are to two of the most used highways in Philly, 76 and 95. 

Personally I actually think I the closer you are to 34th St and Grays Ferry Ave is a better location than let’s say Point Breeze. There’s better access to major highways stores etc and University City. 

Adding some data driven commentary to this thread. I (along with the MLS data) agree with @Alex Uman and @Dan Powers in that the median sale price for 19146 is higher than in 19145. As Dan touched on, this is can likely be attributed to most of the newer construction in the Greys Ferry area being on the north side of Tasker St. 

I ran the same data search on the south side of Tasker St in 19145. Results in the graph below show the median sales price in 2021 (205k-210k) is lower than that of the 240k in 19146. 

For additional info, here are the highlighted areas from where the data was pulled for each zone:

19146:

And 19145: