Is Nashville on the brink of a cooldown?

Question

Nashville's market has been on a tear for several years now. Population growth is flattening out. Is it a bad time to get started in this market?

Luka Milicevic · Answer

@Adam Nelson

Yes and no.

Yes-in some zip codes where housing development has exceeded demand. Prices have come down and houses are sitting longer.

No-in certain zip codes where there isn't much development, no in affordable housing, no in renovated housing.

Bad time to get started? It depends what you mean by getting started? In the rental market, probably not the best time, but I mean the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the second best time is today.

Duncan Murphy · Answer

Hey Adam,

It's hard to imagine but I don't see Nashville slowing down much. It is tough to find a 'steal' but there are deals to be found if you speculate on the next hot area. Neighborhoods are changing, for the better, in a matter of a month in many areas so you just have to be there when they do. I think Nashville is insulated from a drop in the national market with all it has going for it like Lucius mentioned.

Thanks,

DM

Allan Smith · Answer

I'm surprised more people haven't said more along lines of what Luka did. Rate of appreciation is slowing down. Closer to normal after the frenzy we've had. It will take time for sellers to catch on that they won't get a dozen bids the first day anymore. 6 to 12 months lag maybe.

The problem with getting stats from realtors is their stats typically don't include closings off the MLS. not a huge difference but some. Last REIN meeting I went to they said Davidson county's median price actually dropped April 18 to April 19. Chandler confirms that http://regionplus.chandlerreports.com/RegionPlus/Documents/Reports/MarketTrends/MiddleTN/001-Residential%20Market%20Conditions/DAVIDSON%20-%20Residential%20Sales%20by%20Zip%20Code/Mth04%20-%20April%202019.pdf

Mat Farmer · Answer

@Adam Nelson - Seems like I'm echoing what everyone else has suggested on here, but I'll provide a little context based on recent reports.

Based on recent Realtor data for April in Middle Tennessee, there's a few points that should provide quite a bit of optimism.  First and foremost, there were 3,479 home closings in the month of April, which is a record high for the month.  With this record high number of closings, the median price for both single-family homes and condos grew 4.1% and 3.3%, respectively.  Inventory is indeed up compared to last year, but Nashville is still under 3 months of inventory.  Anything under 4 months is commonly understood to be a sellers’ market.  Closings and median prices up along with inventory that represents a relative shortage definitely doesn't line up with a cool down.

An additional indicator to consider is that real estate direct-buy proptech companies such as REX, Knock, Opendoor, Offerpad, and Zillow (to name a few) have already raised $1.9 Billion in investor funding this year.  Several of these firms are either already buying in the Nashville market, or are positioned to sometime within 2019 to 2020.  These firms tend to not necessarily position their operations in markets where margins are the widest, but rather in markets where their exit of the property is the quickest and most ensured.

Again, I thought it would help to provide some constructive data to what everyone else on here has always pointed to.  I've been active in the REI space in a couple markets now (only operating in Nashville currently), and there are always folks who are waiting for the next cool down - arguably, at some point they will inevitably be correct, but that doesn’t appear to be anytime soon in Nashville.  Amazon and Alliance Bernstein were the biggest announcements of new firms coming to town and are supposed to bring a combined 6,000 new jobs to the area with an average pay of $100k or more - as it stands, those jobs have yet to arrive.  So, the growth in closings and median prices we've experienced as of late is still not indicative of what is to come.

Happy Investing!

Matthew Whitaker · Answer

@Adam Ne, I would say it's a better time to start in a market.  If the market softens, I think that there will be some good deals out there for investors.

It's still an incredibly stong market (and a cool place to live).  So investing there is never going to be a bad idea.

We've had clients who can sell their houses for lots more money than they paid for them in the past few years, yet they hold onto the property because the value is still there.

mw

Lucius Carroll · Answer

Native Nashvillian, in real estate since 1996.

No - it's active and will remain so. The next wave of growth is coming, it's a solid market for many reasons - geographic location, climate, diverse employment base (ever expanding), higher education, no state sales tax, hospitality, cultural, entertainment, ...

Branford Shaw · Answer

I think Duncan and Lucius have the right idea. Even though the inventory is short right now, there are a lot of things happening that are going to lead to continued growth like growth in tourism and business moves like Amazon's plans for the city.

It isn't a bad time to get started, but you should definitely get an idea for what strategies are ideal for where the market is and what you're willing/able to execute on.

Paul Barbeau · Answer

Check out Chandler Reports. They provide quarterly market data for Tennessee markets.

http://regionplus.chandlerreports.com/RegionPlus/MarketTrends.aspx?Region=Middle

Michael Dill · Answer

Population growth is flattening out? I didn't realize that, where did you get this info?

I've lived closed to Nashville my whole life. I know it's been hot for many years and I haven't heard anything about it slowing down. Although I'm not really in the game yet and I don't have REI connections.

Is Nashville on the brink of a cooldown?

Most Popular Reply