Updated over 4 years ago on . Most recent reply
Is Austin in a housing Bubble?
Appraisals shooting up faster than a speeding bullet. Prices plowing through the pandemic like a locomotive. Values leaping by bounds in tall condo buildings. Look, up in the air, it’s Austin’s super housing market — and it will remain relatively sky-high for years to come, experts agree.
More than a dozen economic and residential real estate experts interviewed believe this is not a bubble that’s in danger of bursting.
“A bubble bursting means demand will go away, and with job growth in Austin the way it is, it’s hard to see how that will happen,” said Kara McGregor, senior vice president of business development at Independence Title Company.
Indeed, Austin’s ability to keep the masses coming is cited as the No. 1 reason why this appreciation trend is sustainable. Employers have proven for over 40 years that they will keep this economy in overdrive. The chance of a $900,000 home dropping to a $450,000 value — which happened in California during the 2008 downturn — simply won’t happen here soon, experts say.
But what if the unthinkable happens? Let’s say a recession combined with a global public crisis hits us. Been there, did that in 2020 and it only propelled prices higher — just as the past two recessions have done because people seek a safe, less-expensive port such as Austin during an economic storm. When the tech bubble burst at the turn of the century, housing didn’t suffer notably. Even when the housing bubble burst in 2008, Austin kept chugging, relatively speaking.
"When we analysts think about bubbles we think of annual market averages in the mid 40% for over a decade as the sand states — California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida — had prior to the financial meltdown," said Mark Sprague, state director of information capital at Independence Title. "Those markets did not have low rates, but they did have easy financing and high levels of speculation — 35% to 45%. Presently, the number of speculators is low — less than 10% — in this market because of the premiums being paid by homeowners. "
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@Neil Narayan Yes sir I did and only history will tell the true story. Grandstanding in the good times is an easy feat for anyone with a voice. My guess is that it is mostly done to get attention and bring into the fold those who have less experience or historical perspective in an effort to gain short term. When was the last time you heard a real estate agent tell you that now (anytime) was a BAD time to buy to a newbie buyer? Never, that would not be very self serving. I myself have been in Austin nearly 35 years and lived through the 2008 crash first hand. To play it down as Austin had little to no impact is, well to say the least, something of a fools tale. Almost every street had 1/3 of the houses with for sale signs and nothing was moving. Foreclosure homes were ubiquitous. Prices declined significantly and many homes sat vacant in REO for months and months. Austin was not, is not, and never will be immune to the downturns in global real estate markets. Recognizing the weak and weakening fundamentals, not casting a shadow on those same fundamentals, and avoiding the trap of having a myopic focus on recent pricing performance serves to the benefit of the investor in their decision making. Spreading the false narrative of never declining markets does the opposite to distort reality and hinder good rational discord of thought. We are investors, looking for profitable and successful deals. When commenting on macro environment, the worst you can tell a well seasoned investor is that prices will never go down again. It tells them all they need to know about the lack of experience in the one speaking such nonsense.