Has the Seattle market peaked

13 Replies

The Seattle market has been rising like a rocket for a couple years. Do you think it has peaked?

Agreed. I think we're pretty stable again and heading toward a peak- I think we're a couple years off from it though. 

Not yet.  Many software engineers make $100k a year straight out of school.  Many of them haven't bought homes yet.  Debt to income ratio for conventional loans is up to 45%.  Assuming they try to save money for a down payment, they can easily afford anything $500k up to even $1m after working a few years.  

Thanks for sharing the info!

I see no evidence whatsoever that we have reached a peak.  Please keep in mind that our friends down in San Francisco and up north in Vancouver Canada have been asking themselves the same question for 15 years :-)

As a former stockbroker and financial planner I have found that the peak of the market can be very easily identified by canvassing public opinion.  For example, if your dentist, hairdresser, or cabdriver tells you that they are buying investment property, that will be the sign of a market top.  These people, the general public, are always last of the party and buy high and sell low.  

So, next time you're talking with someone who has no knowledge of or experience with the real estate market, pay very close attention to their opinion, and do the exact opposite :-)

Originally posted by @Patrick Britton :

I see no evidence whatsoever that we have reached a peak.  Please keep in mind that our friends down in San Francisco and up north in Vancouver Canada have been asking themselves the same question for 15 years :-)

As a former stockbroker and financial planner I have found that the peak of the market can be very easily identified by canvassing public opinion.  For example, if your dentist, hairdresser, or cabdriver tells you that they are buying investment property, that will be the sign of a market top.  These people, the general public, are always last of the party and buy high and sell low.  

So, next time you're talking with someone who has no knowledge of or experience with the real estate market, pay very close attention to their opinion, and do the exact opposite :-)

 This is great anecdotal "evidence" but it proves nothing but public opinion, and even then it doesn't prove that as you don't have a statistically large enough sample size, while you do have a ton of coverage and other errors. 

Real estate is driven by supply and demand. Interest rates affect that supply and demand. Price equilibrium is determined by the intersection of the supply and demand curves. Not what your cab driver who makes less than minimum wage says he is thinking about doing...Sheesh...

@Jack B. heh...i was going to write this huge explanation rebuking your statement, but then I realized, you're not worth the trouble or time.  Do whatever your little heart desires.  

Originally posted by @Patrick Britton :

@Jack B. heh...i was going to write this huge explanation rebuking your statement, but then I realized, you're not worth the trouble or time.  Do whatever your little heart desires.  

 Riiight. The "realtor" who claimed that taxi drivers opinions are indicators of real estate trends vs. the college educated guy who pointed out micro-economic principles of supply and demand, not statistically invalid public opinion of statistically insignificant sample sizes of irrelevant opinions of low income and uneducated people, drive real estate. You sure showed me tough guy. Notice I have two up votes of my correction of your ignorant post and you have none...You HAVE no argument. You have no clue what you are talking about.

@Jack B. You are confusing indicators with symptoms.

Every major market is driven by public opinion. This is why advertising exists. If the public is unwilling to support a market, it will fail. Likewise, bubbles are created by an over-enthusiasm by those who have no business being in a market. This includes taxi drivers and hairdressers who "flip houses".

Those who see the signs succeed, everyone else loses.

Originally posted by @Jim Y. :

Jack B. You are confusing indicators with symptoms.

Every major market is driven by public opinion. This is why advertising exists. If the public is unwilling to support a market, it will fail. Likewise, bubbles are created by an over-enthusiasm by those who have no business being in a market. This includes taxi drivers and hairdressers who "flip houses".

Those who see the signs succeed, everyone else loses.

SO the housing prices now are NOT higher because of high demand and low inventory? Hmmmm...OK, you stick to asking cab drivers where they are investing. lol. Just WOW...What a waste of time trying to explain basic economics to you.

And we have an internet troll on BP ---> @Jack B.

Seems like anytime you post it is something snarky / rude. Could this be why you don't put any personal information on your profile? hmmm... classy

Any developers who may want to chime in ?

@Jack B. It would be great if you could share with us how you analyze the Seattle market, and let  us know whether we are near a peak or not, and why. Much appreciated!

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