BRRRR budget update - not quite as I planned

[Robert Johnson]

I wanted to share a quick update on my current BRRRR project, since the numbers have shifted a bit from what I originally projected. Hoping this breakdown helps someone else and also curious how others handle "not quite perfect" BRRRRs.

Where I Stand

So far I’ve spent:

• $11K in closing costs

• $14K in renovations (with another ~$19K of work left)

That could put me at about $44K all-in before refinance if everything stayed on the high side. But realistically, I think I’ll come in under that number once it’s finished.

Potential Outcomes

Here's how the deal looks if I hit the $44K "worst case" and then refinance. For the refi PITI, I'm running a range since rates will impact where it actually lands. For rent, I'm conservatively using $1,500, but there's a chance it comes in closer to $1,600.

Category	Pre-Refi (All Cash In)	Post-Refi (80% LTV, $160K ARV)
Cash Invested	$44,000 (worst case)	$15,750 (after cash-out)
Loan Balance	$99,750	$128,000
Property Value (ARV)	$160,000	$160,000
Equity	$60,250	$32,000
Rent	$1,500–$1,600/month	$1,500–$1,600/month
PITI	$1,050/month	$1,150–$1,250/month (depends on refi rate)
Vacancy (8%)	$120–$128/month	$120–$128/month
CapEx (6%)	$90–$96/month	$90–$96/month
Net Cash Flow	~$234–$334/month	~$34–$234/month
Annual Cash Flow	~$2,808–$4,008	~$408–$2,808
Cash-on-Cash Return (CoC)	~6–9%	~3–17% (depending on rent + rate)

Takeaways

• If I end up at the full $44K worst case, pre-refi CoC sits around 6–9%.

• After refinance, I recycle most of my capital (only ~$15.7K left in the deal) which bumps CoC anywhere from 3% to as high as 17% depending on where rent lands ($1,500 vs $1,600) and what interest rate I get on the refi.

• Even if cash flow is modest at the start, I’ll still be holding ~$32K in equity and a property that benefits (albeit modestly) from appreciation and rent growth in my market.

It's definitely not the "perfect BRRRR" where every dollar comes back out, but I still see this as a long-term win.

Curious how others approach it when you land closer to “worst case” than “best case.” Do you chalk it up to equity and long-term wealth, or do you pivot mid-project to force stronger returns?