NO PLACE BUT UP

12 Replies

Feb 10 at Fort Myers Board of Realtors: Ted Jones speaks. I copied and pasted this from the board website:

No Place But Up – Interest Rates, Rents, Prices, Real Estate and the Economy Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist – Stewart Title Guaranty Company 2014 saw the U.S. return to a normal economy: • The U.S. has more jobs than ever before • The last time the U.S. was growing as many jobs (average per month for the prior 12 months) was 2006 • Almost 60 percent of the jobs created in 2014 had salaries greater than the U.S. median income Real estate has essentially got back to normal—in both the housing and commercial markets. • Commercial markets sales volumes grew double digits percentage wise • Normal seasonality in housing sales sees a decline from July to August and from August to September, but just the opposite happened as sales volumes trended up in the fall • Demographics make the U.S. different from most developed countries, as the U.S. is growing in population rather than shrinking • Demand for housing continues to outstrip supply as the U.S. added more than 2.6 new jobs per new dwelling unit built in 2014 versus the normal 1.25 to 1.5 new jobs per new dwelling • Residential and commercial rents will continue to escalate Challenges in 2015 include: • Rising interest rates • Escalating construction costs • New residential closing disclosures and documents • An income-challenged Federal Government • Ongoing and growing regulatory requirements impacting real estate • Stalemate in Washington, DC Opportunities in 2015 • Rising new and existing home sales – ditto prices • Robust investor demand for commercial properties • Continued rising residential and commercial rents • Highly affordable energy costs


This is FREE to members. I have heard he is an awesome speaker and look forward to hearing him.

OMG...sounds like Ted's PhD stands for Piling it Higher and Deeper.  But then again this is the same song sung in 2006 and I think we all know now how well that worked out. 

Originally posted by @Guy Gimenez :

OMG...sounds like Ted's PhD stands for Piling it Higher and Deeper.  But then again this is the same song sung in 2006 and I think we all know now how well that worked out. 

 The first thing that crossed my mind when I read "since 2006" was ANOTHER BUBBLE?????  LOL

I'm glad I'm investing in real estate that only increases in demand in a crash. That's all I'm saying. 

@John Thedford    Selling every flip I can get my hands on. Gotta take advantage of the mindless masses who haven't been through market corrections and therefore can't see the forest for the trees (ie. they're content consuming the nonsense spewed from the Ted's in the world instead of looking at the reality all around them) .The key to thriving in such an event is believing only half of what you see and none of what you hear.  

Continued success John.

@Guy Gimenez  I am sure there are those that pay stupid money and eventually get hurt. My belief is long term wealth is built in buy and holds. Have you read Keller's book "the millionaire real estate investor"? Our market is sizzling here and buyers that pay top dollar surely stand a chance to get hurt. Buyers that buy right will more than likely do well in the long term. Markets go up...and they come down! Savvy investors make money in good times and bad times. The speech today was quite informative. He made a lot of comments on different markets. I do pretty much agree with his assessment...NO PLACE BUT UP. That is the current trend in our market and will likely continue for the next few years. He did comment on overheated markets and buyers paying foolish money and stated they more than likely stand a chance to lose. He is not all "blue sky" hype and has very impressive credentials. I recommend attending one of his speeches if you ever get the chance. SMART GUY!

@John Thedford I also read that book! It is one of the best book if you would like to take your RE investments from Ma and Pa's to the next level. I last time read:

(like the 5th time so far)  

 that successful investors are aware of the market cycles and time to time when conditions are such they pay down their dept, then when dept gets below a certain level, they "pull money" out to re-invest it as need it for growth strategies.

Ps. Our of curiosity i had goggled on the investor from the back of the book from state and sadly it turns out she had over leveraged her self and the bank foreclosed on close $8Million of her mortgages about 3 years ago.

@Jeremy Tillotson  this is all very interesting.  I heard on the radio a bit ago that home ownership was at a 20 year low as well.  That means the rental market is booming & these renters may be looking to purchase a home in the next few years.  Add that to everything above . . .

@Robin Secord

There isn't a lack of buyers now...there's a lack of available credit. Of course our illustrious leaders could ease credit markets..but again, I seem to remember that didn't work out too well last time.  I'm not a naysayer, just a seeker of truth over fluff. 

Ted is well respected. So were many economic Gurus back in 2006...most of whom were crawfishing in 2008.  There is one constant in life and in business...and that one thing is change.

I have been hearing that lenders are loosening, and as foreclosure/short sale credit issues start coming off reports in the next couple of years, then buyers may start flooding the markets, pushing us buy/holders out.  This would probably be the right time to take big appreciation gains if that's your thing.

If you got a 100k house for 20-30k in 2012 and are renting it for 1200 now then I can't imagine why you would give that kind of cash flow up.  

I am a cynic, I don't trust much of what I hear, but I will say this:  I went to dinner with the wife last weekend and EVERY restaurant had an hour long wait.  Mexican, steak houses, italian, everything.  We went to 6 places before settling on an ARabic place, but it was about 8pm by then and getting past dinner rush.  LOL

I dunno.  Someone's got money.  

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