Feedback on Profitability on a Commercial Development in West Africa

Feedback on Profitability on a Commercial Development in West Africa

Member since 2023 · 10 posts · 2 votes

Hi Bigger Pockets Community!

I’ve newly joined our family business in developing commercial buildings and would appreciate your advice if the following potential project is considered as a strong long-term hold.

Project Summary:

  • 40-year ground lease
  • Initial investment: $USD 930,000 (which includes the 10 years of prepaid land rent and all other costs  such as permits, contracts, engineering, geotechnical studies, etc.)

Revenue & Occupancy:

  • Annual rental revenue (Year 1): the equivalent of $USD145,000 (at 100% occupancy)
  • 7% shop rent increase every 5 years

Operating Expenses:

  • Recurrent yearly expenses total USD$20,000, covering: Security, maintenance, generator upkeep, insurance, taxes, repairs, and contingencies
  • Land rent restarts in Year 11 with a 10% increase every 10 years

Financing:

  1. With loan (USD$550,000 at 7%, over 6 years)
    → Break-even in Year 12

After breakeven, the project produces pure cash flow for 28–32 years.


Would you consider this a strong long-term hold?
Would you use debt here or propose a different financing strategy?

Appreciate any advice, feedback, or red flags I might have missed.

Thanks a lot!

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  • David OjoPro Member
    MD · Member since 2024 · 58 posts · 26 votes
    1y

    Hi there!

    I’m originally from West Africa (Nigeria), so I was immediately curious, may I ask which country you’re investing in?

    One key factor I’d strongly consider especially in Nigeria is the level of local relationships and connections you have on the ground. For high-value, long-term investments like this, success often depends on navigating the regulatory landscape and local politics, which can be complex. In many cases, knowing “someone who knows someone” isn’t just helpful, it’s critical to avoid bureaucratic delays and unexpected roadblocks.

    The Landmark Group had its popular Landmark Beach property in Lagos demolished by the government with little notice due to a highway right-of-way issue. This happened after they had been operating there for 18 years.

    That said, your project sounds promising on paper, but I’d recommend evaluating the political and regulatory risks just as closely as the financials. Best of luck!

  • Member since 2023 · 10 posts · 2 votes
    1y

    Hello David, 
    Thanks for the feedback regarding politics and legalities - this is very helpful for countries in these regions - I'll definitely dive into these aspects as well.

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