help me get the current market value and the ARV? (second opinon)

11 Replies

Hello, I came across this ARV which I think is outrageously high (which is 525k), compare to what the asking price was (which is 290k), I done my diligent on the property and ran several comp and I came with ARV of 350 max (keep in mind it could possible sell for a little more) but i think she should sell somewhere around 240k -245k (keep in mind i never factor in my repair cost in yet because haven't seen the place in person) they place look like its in pretty good condition , it just needs an up to date appeal (Ill show pictures) One sec) which i think would be about 20 k judging from the picture. Now she figured 140k est in rehab can boost the arv from 290 k to 525k...How did she get this? the only house on my comp that sold close to that 525 k was a house a couple mile away and it was double in SF. If im going to try and hit that 525k value mark, im thinking i would have to gut out the whole house, and upgrade the whole entire house, that would be about 140k in rehab. How did she come up with that outrageous number?? and can you figure out a quick comp on the property of what you think it is worth as is and then the ARV?? Here picture below

subject house

http://houston.craigslist.org/reb/4844142447.html

here a similar house in a close proximity i found using redfin that been upgraded and sold for 345k

https://www.redfin.com/TX/Houston/2407-Willowby-Dr...

it looks like you have answered your own question as far as value of the house 

@David Daniels  

if similar properties in that area are only selling for 345k then that is what they are worth

you cannot go with comps 2 miles away

Ok thank you mark

Sometimes I over analyze things just to confirm what im doing is correct. Im still dumbfounded how she got 525k ARV in a area where house are selling between 300-350k in better condition but similar to the subject house. Why she think the house needs 140k? when I see a minimum of 20 k fix from the pictures.

Im starting to think this is prime example for beginners.  Do your homework on a property before jumping in on a deal ,the 290k -525k gap sounds too good. but realistically maybe the most you can sell that house may be 50-60k (350k-400k) above market value with a really intricate high appeal gut out job. (which I don't highly recommend as a first job for myself)

On another note im going to call her on how she got her ARV for more of learning for me and maybe try strike a deal

Originally posted by @Mark Brogan :

it looks like you have answered your own question as far as value of the house 

@David Daniels 

if similar properties in that area are only selling for 345k then that is what they are worth

you cannot go with comps 2 miles away

Thank you boss

I just looked up recently solds in the same subdivision from 01/01/2013. The highest sold was $362,000 (1397sq ft) in 11/14.  It's worth around 300k-350k depending on your upgrades.  I can send you the comps.  Just PM me your email address.

Originally posted by @David Daniels :

Ok thank you mark

...On another note im going to call her on how she got her ARV for more of learning for me and maybe try strike a deal

Everything you said right up until this last sentence seemed well reasoned and thoughtfully presented.  But after all that, you STILL think there is the possibility of an investor's dream bargain here?  I for one cannot see it!  Cheers...

Originally posted by @Tuan Le :

I just looked up recently solds in the same subdivision from 01/01/2013. The highest sold was $362,000 (1397sq ft) in 11/14.  It's worth around 300k-350k depending on your upgrades.  I can send you the comps.  Just PM me your email address.

Thank you Tuan, I did send you a message, im not sure if you got it.

Originally posted by @Brent Coombs :
Originally posted by @David Daniels:

Ok thank you mark

...On another note im going to call her on how she got her ARV for more of learning for me and maybe try strike a deal

Everything you said right up until this last sentence seemed well reasoned and thoughtfully presented.  But after all that, you STILL think there is the possibility of an investor's dream bargain here?  I for one cannot see it!  Cheers...

Yea I know, its just learning curb. I got to try and work on my negotiating skills lol im so naive in this business, I feel so vulnerable it not even funny lol building up my defence surely but slowly

Originally posted by @David Daniels :
Originally posted by @Tuan Le:

I just looked up recently solds in the same subdivision from 01/01/2013. The highest sold was $362,000 (1397sq ft) in 11/14.  It's worth around 300k-350k depending on your upgrades.  I can send you the comps.  Just PM me your email address.

Thank you Tuan, I did send you a message, im not sure if you got it.

 I got it and emailed you the comps.  Let me know how it goes.  Apparently, it's a hot subdivision so good luck.

Originally posted by @Tuan Le :
Originally posted by @David Daniels:
Originally posted by @Tuan Le:

I just looked up recently solds in the same subdivision from 01/01/2013. The highest sold was $362,000 (1397sq ft) in 11/14.  It's worth around 300k-350k depending on your upgrades.  I can send you the comps.  Just PM me your email address.

Thank you Tuan, I did send you a message, im not sure if you got it.

 I got it and emailed you the comps.  Let me know how it goes.  Apparently, it's a hot subdivision so good luck.

Oh Im not planning on making a move yet lol but your comp were similar to mine, which is a good thing. The only thing I ignore was the 2013 comparison for the property (thought it was a little bit  too far back). but i didnt ignore completely i paid attention at what thing were being sold a couple year ago If not mistaken seem like the market in that subdivision rose a little bit.

Originally posted by @David Daniels :
Originally posted by @Tuan Le:
Originally posted by @David Daniels:
Originally posted by @Tuan Le:

I just looked up recently solds in the same subdivision from 01/01/2013. The highest sold was $362,000 (1397sq ft) in 11/14.  It's worth around 300k-350k depending on your upgrades.  I can send you the comps.  Just PM me your email address.

Thank you Tuan, I did send you a message, im not sure if you got it.

 I got it and emailed you the comps.  Let me know how it goes.  Apparently, it's a hot subdivision so good luck.

Oh Im not planning on making a move yet lol but your comp were similar to mine, which is a good thing. The only thing I ignore was the 2013 comparison for the property (thought it was a little bit  too far back). but i didnt ignore completely i paid attention at what thing were being sold a couple year ago If not mistaken seem like the market in that subdivision rose a little bit.

 I had to go 2013 because when I ran it for 2014, there weren't many properties sold that year.  Going back to 2013 at least gave you a few more properties to analyze.

yes it did and it open my mind just a little more thanks...I'll be sure to message you soon again, If you need me run any comp I will gladly the more practice the better. So far it look like im using redfin, realtor and I see your using har and I like it...im going to add that to my collection of different resources to utilize

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