Estimating repairs, maintenance and capex with HOA fees

[Account Closed]

How would you estimate repair, maintenance and capex on a property with an HOA that covers yard, external maintenance (siding, paint), roof, etc.?

There are the typical broad estimates ranging from 1% - 1.5% of property value or 10-20% of gross income, but those seem high when coupled with the HOA fee.

To be conservative I've been running my numbers with HOA fee PLUS either 10% of rents or 1% of property value, whichever is higher. Is this too conservative? Would it make more sense to use either 20% of rents or 1.5% of property value, whichever is higher, MINUS HOA fees? That seems to put a lot of faith in the HOA to use their funds efficiently. Is there another way to estimate these?

(yes, I'm already aware of the pitfalls of HOAs)

Thanks in advance!