Need help analyzing this deal in big city Asia

2 Replies

I need advice from outsiders because this is a complicated family deal. This is my first deal. I want to try and be as objective as possible and so I value your opinion!

My father inherited a building with 2 older brothers 5 miles from the center of a major capital in South East Asia. Built in 1978, it is a 9000 sq foot land area, 3 storey shophouse building with 4 shops in the ground floor and 24 small 2Bed/2Bath apartments above. 50% the building is rented out (almost NNN arrangement) to a very stable national bank for the last 30 years, with another 10 - 15 years remaining on contract. The bank has even invested something like 50 to 80 times the monthly rent in renovating the part of the building it has rented to meet its spec (to me this spells commitment) . Occupancy in the remainder is about 90 % for the last 5 years. Shops portion generate about 60-70% of the rental income and 75% of the shop tenants have been there for the last 30 years. Net earnings after expenses have been about 400k per annum (local currency). Gross income is about 500k p.a. My father has been the manager of the building for the last 20 years and this has kept the expenses low. Since he is otherwise retired, lives close and owns 1/3rd, he doesnt draw a significant salary (15k/yr). There is no sinking fund. There has been no major repairs and no known upcoming ones that are due. Building is 37 years old this year.

Elder brother 1 wants to cash out because he needs the money and wants to leave the country. Remaining shareholders/brothers do not want to cash out and sell the building - mostly because of sentimental value of it being a property owned their father. Likelihood is since the remaining 2/3rd of the building is family owned, it is not likely elder brother 1 would be able to sell in the open market (outsiders are not likely interested in being a minority shareholder of a family business, see numbers later).  Therefore, I am considering stepping in to buy 1/3rd the building share. 

In the next 3 - 4 years, there is a huge highway being built around the building connecting downtown to the outskirts of downtown. This construction could change the building demographic and it is unclear what effect it would have on the pre-existing tenants. The construction period of 3 - 4 years should add chaos to the surrounding area due to noise, dust and traffic diversions. The access road to the building may also be compromised temporarily. Long term though, will having a highway close by present difficult access to the building and the bank, make residential units too close to major highway and drop its value? Will the highway bring the building closer to the city's core and increase its value? What is the net effect long term? To me, hard to tell - there are pro's and con's. 

Such drastic upcoming plans/uncertainty has been the reason that the remaining shareholders have been hesitant to make an offer on the building. However, elder brother 1 is adamant that he wants to cash out soon.

Comps around the area generally pay about 3 - 4.5% of the gross annual rental yield for similar properties. These numbers are probably closer to what you see in big city USA like SF etc. I suspect that if the building is formally valued, it would be about 12-14 million. However at 12m, that would make net rental yield very unattractive (3.3%) going in, and this could get worse after highway construction. 

I am interested to buy elder brother 1's 33% share. My goals are simple, to buy and hold the asset, pay off the mortgage using some of my money and supplemented by the current rental yield, and maybe in 20 - 30 years when the city center has swelled up past the building and it becomes more valuable , consider tearing it down and building a more appropriate structure. 

My logic is - buy now, but correct the asking price by taking into consideration major construction is coming up. I was planning to offer 3.3M, paying 1M down payment and remaining on loan. With an expected rental yield now of 150k/yr from 1/3rd the share, do you think this is fair, too expensive/cheap? Am I being too impulsive buy buying before planned construction? What other information do I need to keep in mind? What more due diligence do I need to do?

I would be honored to see the thoughts are out here. Thanks in advance everyone!

sorry, i meant comparable buildings/shophouses generally cost a price that yields 3 - 4.5 percent gross rental yield annually. ie. people may pay 1M for a shophouse that makes 30k p.a if it is very attractive or 45k p.a if it is less attractive. 

No one? no way! i am sure someone here has some opinions. I appreciate candor and straight forwardness

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