Technique for comparing city rental markets

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Technique for comparing city rental markets

Account Closed
Sunnyvale, CA · Member since 2016 · 71 posts · 21 votes

Hey Bigger pockets,

I'm working on a project to use data to compare US cities rental markets. Please take a look and let me know what you think.  I am using the following categories:

  • 1 Yr Job Growth
  • 3 Yr Job Growth
  • Current Unemployment Rate
  • 1 Yr Unemployment Rate Growth
  • 3 Yr Unemployment Rate Growth
  • 1 Yr Median Income Growth
  • 3 Yr Median Income Growth
  • Current Gross Median Rent
  • 1 Yr Gross Median Rent Growth
  • 3 Yr Gross Median Rent Growth
  • 1 Yr Population Growth
  • 3 Yr Population Growth
  • Current % Rent vacancy
  • Current % renters
  • Current Affordability (% people paying less than 35% income to rent)
  • Current Median owner occupied home value
  • 1 Yr growth median owner occupied home value
  • 3 Yr growth median owner occupied home value
  • Current Rent to Price (median gross rent / median owner occupied home value)

For each metric, I look at what's average and what's best. The average cities are given no points, and the best are awarded 100% points. I then add the points from each category and rank the cities. An average city would get zero points and the best would have the most. Some categories are worth more points than others.

Am I missing anything? Am I looking at too much economic data? Which categories are more important than others?

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Joe VilleneuvePro Member
Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
10y

Current % Rent vacancy

Current % renters

After reviewing your list a number of times, the two items above are the only two I use when analyzing a rental market.  The rest of the items would give me info that I wouldn't know what to do with...nor do I really care about.  The reason is this.  The two items above are "results" numbers, meaning what "did" or "has" happened.  The rest of the list are "speculation" numbers, meaning I would use those numbers to speculate what "might happen if"...as in "guessing".

Here is my list, added to the two above

  • What is the Profile I'm looking for, and how many properties match it in a Market.
  • Find the Micro-Markets within the Markets based on the Profile Criteria.  This could (and usually will) show up as pockets across a Market.
  • Average rent in the specific Micro-Market(s) (not the overall market).  This could be as small as 4 square blocks.  Ignore the "Gauge" in Rentometer.  Look exclusively at the "candlesticks", and the relationship of those candlesticks to the market.  This is one of the tools that defines a Micro-Market.  
  • Standard expenses per month (i.e...taxes, insurance, property manager etc...)
  • What my minimum Net Cash Flow needs to be....and DON'T ACCEPT LESS.
  • What the cost to buy is in that Micro-Market.  
  • What rehab I'm willing to do in that Micro-Market...and what the typical cost would be
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  • Account Closed
    OP
    Sunnyvale, CA · Member since 2016 · 71 posts · 21 votes
    10y

    I'm also happy to share some of the results.  Here's the 400 I looked at.

    Rank City Normalized
    1 San Angelo, TX 100.0%
    2 Joplin, MO 93.5%
    3 Lafayette, IN 90.6%
    4 Beaumont, TX 89.1%
    5 St. George, UT 87.6%
    6 Abilene, TX 86.2%
    7 College Station--Bryan, TX 85.5%
    8 Jackson, TN 84.3%
    9 Greeley, CO 83.0%
    10 Dalton, GA 82.6%
    11 Waco, TX 82.5%
    12 Springfield, OH 80.6%
    13 Coeur d'Alene, ID 79.8%
    14 St. Cloud, MN 79.3%
    15 Greenville, SC 79.0%
    16 Fayetteville--Springdale--Rogers, AR--MO 78.9%
    17 Deltona, FL 78.1%
    18 Madera, CA 77.8%
    19 Billings, MT 77.3%
    20 Charlottesville, VA 77.2%
    21 North Port--Port Charlotte, FL 76.7%
    22 Rock Hill, SC 76.5%
    23 Odessa, TX 76.4%
    24 Anderson, SC 76.4%
    25 Turlock, CA 75.9%
    26 Alexandria, LA 75.6%
    27 Gainesville, GA 75.6%
    28 Muncie, IN 75.4%
    29 Lawton, OK 75.4%
    30 Cleveland, TN 75.3%
    31 Hagerstown, MD--WV--PA 75.2%
    32 Idaho Falls, ID 75.0%
    33 Rocky Mount, NC 75.0%
    34 Spring Hill, FL 74.2%
    35 Lubbock, TX 74.1%
    36 Temple, TX 74.0%
    37 Nashville-Davidson, TN 73.9%
    38 Muskegon, MI 73.2%
    39 Corpus Christi, TX 73.1%
    40 Midland, TX 72.9%
    41 Fort Collins, CO 72.4%
    42 Lake Charles, LA 72.4%
    43 Lincoln, NE 72.2%
    44 St. Joseph, MO--KS 72.1%
    45 Bristol--Bristol, TN--VA 72.1%
    46 Fargo, ND--MN 71.7%
    47 Anderson, IN 71.7%
    48 Duluth, MN--WI 71.7%
    49 Prescott Valley--Prescott, AZ 71.6%
    50 Cape Coral, FL 71.6%
    51 Anniston--Oxford, AL 71.3%
    52 Spartanburg, SC 71.3%
    53 Dallas--Fort Worth--Arlington, TX 71.0%
    54 Morgantown, WV 71.0%
    55 McKinney, TX 70.9%
    56 Denver--Aurora, CO 70.8%
    57 Hanford, CA 70.7%
    58 Orlando, FL 70.7%
    59 Lexington-Fayette, KY 70.6%
    60 Houston, TX 70.5%
    61 Elmira, NY 70.5%
    62 Janesville, WI 70.4%
    63 Slidell, LA 70.1%
    64 Lake Jackson--Angleton, TX 70.1%
    65 Lima, OH 70.0%
    66 San Antonio, TX 70.0%
    67 Austin, TX 70.0%
    68 Jackson, MI 69.9%
    69 Durham, NC 69.3%
    70 Atlanta, GA 69.2%
    71 Tampa--St. Petersburg, FL 69.2%
    72 Athens-Clarke County, GA 69.2%
    73 Charleston--North Charleston, SC 69.1%
    74 Murfreesboro, TN 68.9%
    75 Provo--Orem, UT 68.9%
    76 Portsmouth, NH--ME 68.7%
    77 Sioux City, IA--NE--SD 68.4%
    78 Bloomington, IN 68.1%
    79 Wausau, WI 68.1%
    80 Kissimmee, FL 68.1%
    81 Jacksonville, FL 67.9%
    82 Kansas City, MO--KS 67.5%
    83 Auburn, AL 67.4%
    84 Green Bay, WI 67.4%
    85 Blacksburg, VA 67.3%
    86 Winter Haven, FL 67.2%
    87 Marysville, WA 67.2%
    88 Madison, WI 66.9%
    89 Omaha, NE--IA 66.9%
    90 Colorado Springs, CO 66.9%
    91 Logan, UT 66.7%
    92 Huntington, WV--KY--OH 66.7%
    93 Fort Wayne, IN 66.6%
    94 Kalamazoo, MI 66.6%
    95 Laredo, TX 66.6%
    96 Burlington, VT 66.6%
    97 Sumter, SC 66.5%
    98 Texas City, TX 66.5%
    99 Gainesville, FL 66.4%
    100 Oklahoma City, OK 66.3%
    101 Weirton--Steubenville, WV--OH--PA 66.3%
    102 Palm Bay--Melbourne, FL 66.1%
    103 Clarksville, TN--KY 66.1%
    104 Wichita Falls, TX 65.8%
    105 Cheyenne, WY 65.7%
    106 Knoxville, TN 65.6%
    107 Greensboro, NC 65.6%
    108 Dover--Rochester, NH--ME 65.5%
    109 Macon, GA 65.3%
    110 Springfield, MO 65.0%
    111 Portland, ME 64.8%
    112 Redding, CA 64.7%
    113 Manchester, NH 64.6%
    114 Reno, NV--CA 64.5%
    115 Grand Rapids, MI 64.3%
    116 Fort Smith, AR--OK 64.3%
    117 Eau Claire, WI 64.1%
    118 Bloomington--Normal, IL 64.1%
    119 Decatur, IL 64.1%
    120 Lynchburg, VA 63.9%
    121 Port Arthur, TX 63.9%
    122 Charlotte, NC--SC 63.8%
    123 Concord, NC 63.8%
    124 Antioch, CA 63.6%
    125 Sheboygan, WI 63.4%
    126 Leesburg--Eustis--Tavares, FL 63.3%
    127 Phoenix--Mesa, AZ 63.1%
    128 Boise City, ID 63.0%
    129 Winchester, VA 62.7%
    130 Wichita, KS 62.7%
    131 Columbus, OH 62.5%
    132 Tulsa, OK 62.4%
    133 Tyler, TX 62.3%
    134 Avondale--Goodyear, AZ 62.3%
    135 Miami, FL 62.3%
    136 Great Falls, MT 62.3%
    137 Savannah, GA 62.2%
    138 Brownsville, TX 62.2%
    139 Salt Lake City--West Valley City, UT 62.1%
    140 Portland, OR--WA 62.0%
    141 Raleigh, NC 61.8%
    142 Norman, OK 61.7%
    143 Greenville, NC 61.3%
    144 Parkersburg, WV--OH 61.3%
    145 Fresno, CA 61.1%
    146 Minneapolis--St. Paul, MN--WI 61.0%
    147 Warner Robins, GA 61.0%
    148 Lansing, MI 60.8%
    149 Nampa, ID 60.5%
    150 Mansfield, OH 60.5%
    151 Bay City, MI 60.5%
    152 Indianapolis, IN 60.4%
    153 Bonita Springs, FL 60.4%
    154 Johnstown, PA 60.4%
    155 Ogden--Layton, UT 60.4%
    156 Amarillo, TX 60.3%
    157 Tuscaloosa, AL 60.1%
    158 Syracuse, NY 60.0%
    159 Lawrence, KS 59.9%
    160 Las Vegas--Henderson, NV 59.7%
    161 New Orleans, LA 59.7%
    162 Scranton, PA 59.7%
    163 York, PA 59.7%
    164 Louisville/Jefferson County, KY--IN 59.7%
    165 Lancaster, PA 59.5%
    166 Champaign, IL 59.2%
    167 Pensacola, FL--AL 59.2%
    168 Denton--Lewisville, TX 59.0%
    169 Jackson, MS 58.9%
    170 Hemet, CA 58.9%
    171 Salem, OR 58.7%
    172 McAllen, TX 58.5%
    173 Gastonia, NC--SC 58.5%
    174 Appleton, WI 58.3%
    175 South Lyon--Howell, MI 57.9%
    176 Harrisburg, PA 57.9%
    177 Newark, OH 57.8%
    178 Richmond, VA 57.6%
    179 Augusta-Richmond County, GA--SC 57.6%
    180 Dayton, OH 57.4%
    181 Johnson City, TN 57.4%
    182 Cincinnati, OH--KY--IN 57.3%
    183 Stockton, CA 57.1%
    184 Milwaukee, WI 57.1%
    185 Wilmington, NC 57.0%
    186 High Point, NC 56.9%
    187 Little Rock, AR 56.9%
    188 Birmingham, AL 56.8%
    189 Grand Junction, CO 56.8%
    190 Tracy, CA 56.7%
    191 Detroit, MI 56.7%
    192 Seattle, WA 56.7%
    193 Frederick, MD 56.7%
    194 Gulfport, MS 56.6%
    195 Ann Arbor, MI 56.4%
    196 Middletown, OH 56.2%
    197 State College, PA 56.1%
    198 Lakeland, FL 56.1%
    199 Pittsburgh, PA 55.9%
    200 Florence, AL 55.7%
    201 Waldorf, MD 55.7%
    202 Jonesboro, AR 55.6%
    203 Yakima, WA 55.5%
    204 El Paso, TX--NM 55.5%
    205 Harlingen, TX 55.4%
    206 Memphis, TN--MS--AR 55.4%
    207 Charleston, WV 55.2%
    208 Port Huron, MI 55.2%
    209 Davenport, IA--IL 55.2%
    210 Port St. Lucie, FL 55.1%
    211 Waterloo, IA 54.9%
    212 Owensboro, KY 54.8%
    213 Round Lake Beach--McHenry--Grayslake, IL--WI 54.8%
    214 Bremerton, WA 54.8%
    215 Racine, WI 54.8%
    216 Burlington, NC 54.8%
    217 Conway, AR 54.7%
    218 Flint, MI 54.7%
    219 Youngstown, OH--PA 54.7%
    220 St. Louis, MO--IL 54.7%
    221 Toledo, OH--MI 54.5%
    222 Missoula, MT 54.5%
    223 Buffalo, NY 54.3%
    224 Dothan, AL 54.3%
    225 Oshkosh, WI 54.2%
    226 Canton, OH 54.1%
    227 Columbia, SC 54.1%
    228 Salinas, CA 54.0%
    229 Dover, DE 53.8%
    230 Eugene, OR 53.7%
    231 Mobile, AL 53.6%
    232 Sarasota--Bradenton, FL 53.5%
    233 La Crosse, WI--MN 53.4%
    234 Modesto, CA 53.3%
    235 Santa Fe, NM 53.1%
    236 Sioux Falls, SD 53.0%
    237 Jacksonville, NC 52.9%
    238 Santa Maria, CA 52.8%
    239 Holland, MI 52.7%
    240 Winston-Salem, NC 52.5%
    241 Medford, OR 52.3%
    242 Terre Haute, IN 52.3%
    243 Wheeling, WV--OH 52.3%
    244 Allentown, PA--NJ 52.3%
    245 Columbia, MO 52.2%
    246 Altoona, PA 52.1%
    247 Palm Coast--Daytona Beach--Port Orange, FL 52.1%
    248 Visalia, CA 52.0%
    249 Rapid City, SD 51.8%
    250 Lafayette, LA 51.8%
    251 Evansville, IN--KY 51.7%
    252 Rochester, MN 51.6%
    253 Michigan City--La Porte, IN--MI 51.3%
    254 Tallahassee, FL 51.2%
    255 Fort Walton Beach--Navarre--Wright, FL 50.9%
    256 Springfield, IL 50.9%
    257 Vacaville, CA 50.6%
    258 Salisbury, MD--DE 50.6%
    259 Elkhart, IN--MI 50.4%
    260 Conroe--The Woodlands, TX 50.0%
    261 Virginia Beach, VA 49.6%
    262 Saginaw, MI 49.6%
    263 Houma, LA 49.2%
    264 Lodi, CA 49.1%
    265 Lee's Summit, MO 49.1%
    266 Akron, OH 49.0%
    267 Baltimore, MD 48.9%
    268 Columbus, GA--AL 48.9%
    269 Pueblo, CO 48.8%
    270 Bakersfield, CA 48.7%
    271 Sacramento, CA 48.7%
    272 Baton Rouge, LA 48.6%
    273 Erie, PA 48.5%
    274 Montgomery, AL 48.5%
    275 Bellingham, WA 48.5%
    276 Des Moines, IA 48.3%
    277 El Centro--Calexico, CA 48.2%
    278 Kenosha, WI--IL 48.1%
    279 Chattanooga, TN--GA 47.6%
    280 Springfield, MA--CT 47.4%
    281 Cleveland, OH 47.4%
    282 Spokane, WA 47.3%
    283 Albany--Schenectady, NY 47.3%
    284 Tucson, AZ 47.1%
    285 Providence, RI--MA 47.1%
    286 Leominster--Fitchburg, MA 47.0%
    287 Longview, TX 46.8%
    288 Lafayette--Louisville--Erie, CO 46.8%
    289 Olympia--Lacey, WA 46.7%
    290 Victoria, TX 46.6%
    291 South Bend, IN--MI 46.5%
    292 Longmont, CO 46.5%
    293 Bowling Green, KY 46.4%
    294 Nashua, NH--MA 46.2%
    295 Murrieta--Temecula--Menifee, CA 46.2%
    296 Kennewick--Pasco, WA 46.1%
    297 DeKalb, IL 46.1%
    298 Roanoke, VA 46.1%
    299 Hanover, PA 46.0%
    300 Simi Valley, CA 45.9%
    301 Florence, SC 45.6%
    302 Alton, IL--MO 45.5%
    303 Decatur, AL 45.4%
    304 Boston, MA--NH--RI 45.2%
    305 Fairfield, CA 45.2%
    306 Lancaster--Palmdale, CA 45.0%
    307 Albany, GA 45.0%
    308 Texarkana--Texarkana, TX--AR 44.9%
    309 Rochester, NY 44.8%
    310 Binghamton, NY--PA 44.8%
    311 Riverside--San Bernardino, CA 44.7%
    312 Topeka, KS 44.6%
    313 Bend, OR 44.6%
    314 Worcester, MA--CT 44.2%
    315 Fayetteville, NC 44.1%
    316 Santa Rosa, CA 44.1%
    317 Homosassa Springs--Beverly Hills--Citrus Springs, FL 44.0%
    318 Albuquerque, NM 43.9%
    319 Panama City, FL 43.9%
    320 Chicago, IL--IN 43.8%
    321 Flagstaff, AZ 43.6%
    322 Rockford, IL 43.5%
    323 Shreveport, LA 43.5%
    324 Philadelphia, PA--NJ--DE--MD 43.5%
    325 Lebanon, PA 43.4%
    326 Kingsport, TN--VA 43.2%
    327 Mauldin--Simpsonville, SC 43.1%
    328 Asheville, NC 42.8%
    329 Washington, DC--VA--MD 42.7%
    330 Iowa City, IA 42.4%
    331 Victorville--Hesperia, CA 42.4%
    332 Hartford, CT 42.3%
    333 Huntsville, AL 41.9%
    334 Cedar Rapids, IA 41.9%
    335 Manteca, CA 41.7%
    336 Las Cruces, NM 41.2%
    337 Anchorage, AK 41.0%
    338 Napa, CA 40.4%
    339 Vineland, NJ 39.8%
    340 Dubuque, IA--IL 39.7%
    341 Killeen, TX 39.5%
    342 Porterville, CA 39.3%
    343 San Diego, CA 39.0%
    344 Danbury, CT--NY 39.0%
    345 Reading, PA 38.9%
    346 Elizabethtown--Radcliff, KY 38.5%
    347 Lorain--Elyria, OH 38.4%
    348 Indio--Cathedral City, CA 38.3%
    349 Barnstable Town, MA 38.2%
    350 Yuba City, CA 38.0%
    351 Yuma, AZ--CA 38.0%
    352 Battle Creek, MI 37.6%
    353 Fredericksburg, VA 36.9%
    354 Merced, CA 36.8%
    355 New Haven, CT 36.2%
    356 Ocala, FL 35.9%
    357 Vallejo, CA 35.1%
    358 Hilton Head Island, SC 34.9%
    359 Oxnard, CA 34.9%
    360 New Bedford, MA 34.9%
    361 Los Angeles--Long Beach--Anaheim, CA 34.7%
    362 Hickory, NC 34.6%
    363 Sebastian--Vero Beach South--Florida Ridge, FL 33.7%
    364 Aberdeen--Bel Air South--Bel Air North, MD 33.5%
    365 New York--Newark, NY--NJ--CT 33.5%
    366 Santa Clarita, CA 33.2%
    367 Pottstown, PA 33.1%
    368 Kankakee, IL 33.0%
    369 Peoria, IL 32.2%
    370 Boulder, CO 31.2%
    371 Casper, WY 30.6%
    372 Norwich--New London, CT--RI 30.6%
    373 Harrisonburg, VA 30.5%
    374 Chico, CA 30.1%
    375 Utica, NY 29.8%
    376 Monroe, LA 29.6%
    377 Urban Honolulu, HI 29.0%
    378 Davis, CA 28.6%
    379 Pocatello, ID 28.6%
    380 Seaside--Monterey, CA 28.5%
    381 Carbondale, IL 28.5%
    382 Valdosta, GA 27.8%
    383 Waterbury, CT 27.7%
    384 San Francisco--Oakland, CA 27.6%
    385 Poughkeepsie--Newburgh, NY--NJ 27.4%
    386 Trenton, NJ 27.1%
    387 Gilroy--Morgan Hill, CA 25.2%
    388 Bridgeport--Stamford, CT--NY 24.3%
    389 Atlantic City, NJ 21.8%
    390 Myrtle Beach--Socastee, SC--NC 19.8%
    391 Thousand Oaks, CA 19.2%
    392 San Jose, CA 17.8%
    393 Hattiesburg, MS 16.6%
    394 Mission Viejo--Lake Forest--San Clemente, CA 15.5%
    395 Mandeville--Covington, LA 14.6%
    396 Westminster--Eldersburg, MD 13.9%
    397 Concord, CA 13.6%
    398 Williamsburg, VA 9.9%
    399 Santa Cruz, CA 6.2%
    400 Santa Barbara, CA 0.0%
    2Reply
  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    10y

    Current % Rent vacancy

    Current % renters

    After reviewing your list a number of times, the two items above are the only two I use when analyzing a rental market.  The rest of the items would give me info that I wouldn't know what to do with...nor do I really care about.  The reason is this.  The two items above are "results" numbers, meaning what "did" or "has" happened.  The rest of the list are "speculation" numbers, meaning I would use those numbers to speculate what "might happen if"...as in "guessing".

    Here is my list, added to the two above

    • What is the Profile I'm looking for, and how many properties match it in a Market.
    • Find the Micro-Markets within the Markets based on the Profile Criteria.  This could (and usually will) show up as pockets across a Market.
    • Average rent in the specific Micro-Market(s) (not the overall market).  This could be as small as 4 square blocks.  Ignore the "Gauge" in Rentometer.  Look exclusively at the "candlesticks", and the relationship of those candlesticks to the market.  This is one of the tools that defines a Micro-Market.  
    • Standard expenses per month (i.e...taxes, insurance, property manager etc...)
    • What my minimum Net Cash Flow needs to be....and DON'T ACCEPT LESS.
    • What the cost to buy is in that Micro-Market.  
    • What rehab I'm willing to do in that Micro-Market...and what the typical cost would be
    4Reply
  • Account Closed
    OP
    Sunnyvale, CA · Member since 2016 · 71 posts · 21 votes
    10y
    Thanks for the great feedback Joe Villeneuve , I'll check out my results using some of your suggestions.
    0Reply
  • Chris JacksonPro Member
    Investor · Southold, NY · Member since 2016 · 173 posts · 154 votes
    10y

    @Account Closed brings up a good point, if he only cares about a few of the factors he may want to see a weighted average based on only a few of his desired factors. I may want to the see the same or some different factors that I would view important.

    0Reply
  • Account Closed
    Rental Property Investor · Orlando, FL · Member since 2016 · 463 posts · 220 votes
    9y

    Interesting approach! I love data-based analysis. Two thoughts, both of which have to do with using quantitative vs. qualitative data:

    Numbers are good for discerning patterns and making high-level comparisons, but don't (can't) really tell the on-the-ground story. @Account Closed discusses one dimension that matters to investors/landlords- business environment. This information can only be gained by making connections with locals. 

    Another one is the trends in quality of employment. You may want to look into who the biggest employers are and who is hiring. It's a very different investment outlook if it is Wal-Mart or fast-food chains vs. a factory or a large service firm. This data is readily available from online sources. 

    In short, while your data can provide a first cut at analyzing, I would make my decision by including other/different factors- and those factors might end up playing a bigger role than these.

    0Reply
  • Robert EllisBusiness Member
    Developer · Miami, FL · Member since 2014 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    wow I can't believe Columbus ended up in the 100+ range. What weight did you give to the area? I think with major markets you have to break it down further. "Columbus" vs suburbs like Hilliard or Dublin or other areas would be different. There are great and not so great areas for rentals even within Columbus. 

    [email protected]786-494-6766
    Section 8 Launch52 Reviews
    WebsiteView Page
    0Reply
  • Drew Anderson
    Ocala, FL · Member since 2016 · 2 posts · 0 votes
    9y

    What data set(s) did you use?

    0Reply
  • Francis Rusnak
    Flipper/Rehabber · Chicago, IL · Member since 2016 · 123 posts · 38 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Joe Villeneuve:

    Current % Rent vacancy

    Current % renters

    After reviewing your list a number of times, the two items above are the only two I use when analyzing a rental market.  

    What is the best online source for finding these numbers? Zilpy.com seems to have some metrics similar to that, but only on their paid version and I haven't tried that yet.

    0Reply
  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Francis Rusnak:
    Originally posted by @Joe Villeneuve:

    Current % Rent vacancy

    Current % renters

    After reviewing your list a number of times, the two items above are the only two I use when analyzing a rental market.  

    What is the best online source for finding these numbers? Zilpy.com seems to have some metrics similar to that, but only on their paid version and I haven't tried that yet.

     There's a couple I use,

    http://www.altosresearch.com/research/

    http://www.city-data.com/ 

    0Reply
  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    9y

    A couple of items I don't use and why:

    1 - Local employment.  Residents in an area don't always (actually studies show rarely) work in the same area they live.  In fact, most people would rather live as far away from industry, commercial, etc...as they can.  Most people work around 20-30 minutes */- from where they live.

    2 - Anything to do with Job Growth.  See above.  This is more important if you were buying a commercial property as it would tell you the ability of that area to support that property.

    3 - Current Gross Median Rent.  This only tells you what the average rent is in a broad area.  I want/need to know this (actually I need to know the specific high/low) in a specific micro market(s).  The average rent is the Gauge in Rent-O -Meter...and is useless.  The actual rents, high and low, are found on the map in the "candlesticks"...and that is very valuable.

    1Reply
  • Kaz M.
    Member since 2016 · 161 posts · 31 votes
    9y

    @Joe Villeneuve Great information.

    Do you look at historical trends of vacancy and percentage of renters? What are the criteria you set for you to consider investing in an area? Lower vacancy and higher renters are good but what are they typical numbers?

    0Reply
  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    9y

    Here is what I look at:

    1 - I start with my financial criteria, which comes from my financial goals, that dictates the property profile I'm looking for.

    2 - I pick a market, any market, and I analyze that market's numbers to see if it matches the profile I need.

    3 - Then, I find the specific micro-markets where these houses are found in groups...not just scattered singles/doubles mixed in with other properties that don't match.

    4 - Then I camp out in the micro-market, waiting for those properties to become available.

    5 - I then grab the matching properties when available.

    I have two sets of financial criteria:

    1 - Flips.  My total debt is broken down into individual bills, that can be paid off in lump sums.  Those lump sums are my criteria for profit.

    2 - Holds.  My total monthly bills are added together.  The goal is to collect cash flow to match my monthly bills.  I divide my total monthly bills by the number of properties I can buy, based on available funds, which dictates the needed cash flow per property, and the budget per property.  Those numbers are my criteria for Cash flow.

    1Reply
  • Account Closed
    OP
    Sunnyvale, CA · Member since 2016 · 71 posts · 21 votes
    9y

    @Francis Rusnak, and @Drew Anderson I got my data from the census.  You can find that on http://factfinder.census.gov/.

    @Account Closed, yes I weight each category individually.  I think the next step for me is going to be using data to develop the weights appropriately.  I asked others on BP about Hagerstown Maryland (since it's high on my list), and it has very little opportunity for appreciation.  This tells me that my weights may not be right.

    1Reply
  • Dakoda Spencer
    Investor · Short Gap, WV · Member since 2016 · 160 posts · 38 votes
    9y
    This is fantastic information Christopher Pepper , thank you for sharing. I love what you're doing and I'll be following this thread to see where it goes.
    1Reply
  • Donal Murphy
    Investor · Bronx, NY · Member since 2016 · 8 posts · 0 votes
    9y

    It is a good start and certainly comprehensive. Does each category have the same value? Or do you weigh them based on how much they affect the outcome? I'd also look into a few other things:

    Median Age

    Number of people 50+. Baby Boomers are a neglected rental market. You may be able to rent to folks who just sent their last kid out into the world and now want to downsize.

    Number of people <35 . "Millenials" don't seem that interested in home ownership

    What is the average age people leave home? Where my wife grew up in the MidWest, it is a lot younger than where I grew up in New York. You may not find this one measured directly, but you can infer a lot from other stats like "head of household" and such.

    How many people are employed in (or how much of the economy relies on) the biggest company? We've seen what happens to towns that are reliant on one company or industry to sustain them.

    0Reply
  • Dennis Jones
    New York City, NY · Member since 2017 · 24 posts · 3 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Joe Villeneuve:

    Current % Rent vacancy

    Current % renters

    After reviewing your list a number of times, the two items above are the only two I use when analyzing a rental market.  The rest of the items would give me info that I wouldn't know what to do with...nor do I really care about.  The reason is this.  The two items above are "results" numbers, meaning what "did" or "has" happened.  The rest of the list are "speculation" numbers, meaning I would use those numbers to speculate what "might happen if"...as in "guessing".

     Joe, i know it's an old post, hope you can find time to help me understand your thinking behind the "Current % renters" - how does it effect your decision making? Do you try to target markets with higher % renters, or lower % renters? (assuming we buy properties for cashflow, not flipping)

    0Reply
  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    9y

    Higher % renters mean more of a rental market...in most cases.  there's more to it than that though

    0Reply
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