Looking for help on my first deal

[Andrew Merritt]

Hi all, I'm looking for some advice on my first deal.  Our neighbors were renting and they just moved out.  We contacted the owners and told them we're interested in the house as it would be very convenient to manage the property next door.  I just had a walk through with the owner and I'd appreciate your input on the possible deal.  Here are the stats:

Summerville, SC, 1790 sq ft, built in 2001, asking between $200-$220k (seems about right as Zillow says the price would be about $202k)

Has not been updated at all except for a new water heater.  Owner says it needs a new roof (had a big leak during a storm last fall) and will probably need new HVAC w/in 5 years.  

I've been looking for a property for the past couple of weeks and I figure we can comfortably afford a  20% down payment on a house worth $160k.  We could swing a $200k down payment, but only if the numbers were right.  It doesn't seem to me like this deal will work out for us.  Here are my estimates based on some online calculators:

Rent: $1,500

Mortgage (estimating conservatively at 4.75%): $835

Taxes: $400

Insurance: $120

Vacancy: $150

Incidentals: $200

Total: $1705

Also keep in mind that we'd need a new roof ($15k) so we'd likely have to take a loan out for that.  

Now, if we do the fixer upper formula (70% - repair costs), this could be a lot more doable but I really doubt the guy will go down to under $140k for the house.  

Thanks for the help!