[Calc Review] Help me analyze this deal- am I on the right track?

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Hi BP!

I am new and have a few questions. Bear with me here and apologies in advance for this suuuuper long post! 

So, I've been trying to analyze homes for my first house hacking/AirBnB purchase and seeing if I have a good eye for something with potential. I'm new so I assume I don't have an eye for anything because what the heck do I know? Considering how it's a seller's market, I think I'm assessing homes with potential correctly? I am second guessing myself though! I practiced analyzing this home (it went into contingency a few hours after my analysis) but I wanted to make sure I am on the right track:

I've created 3 spreadsheets and input these into the BP calculator to get results. I would love feedback, advice and constructive criticism! 

1.) My first spreadsheet is condensed information form my mortgage broker and lists on the Y axis (vertical): 

mortgage terms, rate, APR, fixed term, years, credit score, loan amount, sales price, percent down, down payment, FHA funding fee, Total Loan Amount, Estimated Monthly Payment, Principle & Interest, Homeowners Insurance (Flood + Home), Property Taxes (1.23% home price in my county), Mortgage Insurance, HOA Dues, origination fee, appraisal fee, tax service, flood certification, credit report, attorney's fee, title insurance-lenders, title insurance-owners, recording fee, verification of employment, survey, home inspection, water/septic if well, pest, 1st year homeowner's insurance premium, homeowner's insurance escrow, property tax escrow, per diem interest, down payment, closing costs, prepaid expenses

On the X axis (horizontal) I have the numbers for 200k, 250k, 300k, 350k, 400k broken down into whether it's single family or multifamily, then FHA or conventional

2.) My second spreadsheet is mostly pulled from census data/trulia/zillow (so I take the numbers with a grain of salt) but it lists on the X axis the zipcodes as well as the county as a whole.

On the Y axis it lists: average listing price, median sale price (90 day period), median sale price versus last year, price per square foot, price per square foot versus last year, median rent per month, vacancy rate, annual property growth value, number of rentals on the market for that month, median rent versus last year, median rent divided by 1BD/2BD/3BD etc etc, median age, median household income, school districts, single residents, college educated percentage, percent home owners, population growth etc (there's more but I feel this is sufficient to get the point)

3.) My third spreadsheet has the same X axis as my first spreadsheet and the Y axis is the amount needed to offset the mortgage based on whether I charge $800/$900/$1000 a room for rent, all the numbers are pulled from the county obviously:

Electricity, gas, repairs and maintenance (10%), capex ($200), vacancy rate (10%), sewer rates, water rates, solid waste fee, lawn care, property management (10%).

Am I missing anything?!? Ok! Almost done! You're still reading? Surprising yet fantastic! I will input the data into the BP calculator twice. Once, using all conservative numbers from the 3rd spreadsheet (0% appreciation, 10% vacancy) and the second time with the numbers pulled from last year (ex: vacancy rate 6.5%, appreciation is estimated to be 2%) and projected growth. I then compare the conservative and "real time" calculators to see what my estimated minimum/maximum cash flow could potentially be. Am I doing this right?!?

That being said, I feel like there are a lot of variables in house hacking I cannot account for? Also, a vacancy rate of 10% is about a month, is that honestly enough time to find a new roommate? 

Some leftover questions I have are:

When it comes to roommate vs. AirBnB I was going to beta test it to see what yielded more and have the roommate on a month to month contract, but is it worth shelling out the money for AirBnBDNA to be able to input more "hard numbers" into the AirBnB calculations? 

I am not counting on appreciation and there is a LOT of new rental construction in this market due to demand. Given supply and demand I'm guessing rental prices wouldn't go down by that much. There's the whole "cranes in the air, buyer beware" adage so would now even be a good time to house hack if downtown homes are going for a premium?

Should you stick with the general rule of thumb and not select a mortgage that is more than a third of your base salary? Or since I plan on house hacking, could I go up to a mortgage that's more like 50% since I think I will be able to have others pay it?

How much weight should I give to timing the purchase around the students? Given I am near 3 universities, should I still time the purchase with fall/winter since there seems to be slightly lower prices and just accept the fact that it'll be harder to find students in the summer and I might have a vacancy of much higher than 10% for my first year? 

Is there a tipping point for number of roommates to house hack with before it interferes with quality of life/vacancy rate/price per room? Ex: As a general rule, assume you will have a maximum of 2 roommates and 3 should be the maximum amount? I would think the more roommates the house is shared with, the harder it would be to fill a vacancy due to more personalities to try and vibe together?

Lastly, although there seems to be conflicting views on whether buy/sell cycles can be predicted in certain markets, I want to make sure I'm not overpaying. Would getting a short sale/wholesale/forclosure as my first investment be too complicated for my first time? I'm thinking turn key would eliminate/delay some of the capex and maintenance and ultimately make the vacancies easier to fill but then I'm getting into more expensive territory. There are homes with 6 rooms, 4 bathrooms that make sense on paper, but how do you know you are not overextending yourself when it comes to a house hack? The better location of being closer to downtown would likely reduce vacancies/have way more resell value but then you would need more roommates, does anyone have experience house hacking multiple properties and seeing what worked best? 

Thank you for reading, I really appreciate it! Have a great day! 

Kind regards,

Julia

P.S. Shameless plug, would anyone like to be my mentor? I'm eager to learn :D

hey julia, just quickly looking over it, property tax seems wayyyyyyy low. also insurance seems low (or im overpaying for mine lol). and vacancy seems high. im not too invested in that part of durham, so i dont know. but if u were looking for a purely investing place, the COC return of 2% is too low in my opinion

You currently have 252.96 per year in taxes for a $300,000 home. I'd double check that, or expect your taxes to be raised dramatically during the next assessment

Thanks! I definitely need to edit the property taxes. Also the high vacancy is due to this being the conservative calculations. I run the numbers twice, once with conservative estimations and again with current market numbers, seems the vacancy currently is closer to 6% and not 10%, but I'd rather be safe than sorry. You're right Chris, the COC is low, however since I currently am renting, to not be able to pay rent and get a little money left over for groceries is enough for me. These numbers are based on having a property manager as well, which I built in just in case but I plan on self managing. The purpose of the house hack is mainly so I can live in an area I want to live in. Again, not banking on appreciation but I do suspect there will be some in that area. Thank you for the help! 😊