I have a few questions for you regarding your calculation.
1) Are you planning to pay all cash for this deal?
2) Why do you not assume any annual expense increase? This should at a minimum be 2% Especially since there is an HOA and there is no telling what the monthly cost could increase next year
3) Your insurance cost seems a bit low given the value of the property - but being a condo, you're only responsible for the walls in, so you may be alright, it just seems a bit low.
4) Does a 2/2 really rent for $3,800/mo? That seems outrageous
5) I don't know that market, but I would imagine Aspen doesn't have much demand for year round rentals, is 5% vacancy a reasonable number?
6) Why are you assuming 8% rental growth on an annual basis? Most people use 3% for this value.
To me, there are some significant issues with the calculation. Without knowing the intimate details, you appears to be way too aggressive with the income and not conservative enough with the expenses.
Near SF in sunny CA. It is difficult to find someone wanting to pay $3800 for rent long term for a 2,000 sf.
So if we assume your numbers work you will make about 22k max per year? As a percentage return you would be better off with an index fund, have way less risk and zero work.