Hello Everyone,

While it’s impossible to predict the future, what are your best guesses/advice:

1. Will property values ever dip below current values in the next 10 years?

2. If you had the opportunity to buy a specific property that was guaranteed to be available to you in the next 10 years, would you buy it now or wait to see if prices drop in the future?

Thanks in advance!

It isn't just about property values, but also interest rates.  If you find something where the numbers work, buy it now.  Why wait 10 years in case it might go down a bit when you can buy it now and rent it out?  

Figure out how much you'd make each month along with your tenant paying down your mortgage over 10 years and ask if the prices will drop by that much and interest rates remain so low...unlikely.

Here's the best answer to your question I could come up with:

As I see it, you will have 4 potential outcomes...pick the one you think is most likely to happen:

1 - Buy now, and prices go down, and back up again, and down, and back up, and...you'll be asking yourself, "should I have waited 10 years ago until now to buy"?

2 -Pass now, and prices go up, and back down again, and up, and back down, and...you'll be asking yourself. "should I have bought 10 years ago"?

3 - Pass now, and prices go down, and back up again, and down, and back up, and...you'll be asking yourself, "should I have bought 10 years ago"?

4 - Buy now, and prices go up, and back down again, and up, and back down, and...you'll be asking yourself. "should I have waited 10 years ago until now to buy"?

Thanks for the quick reply Joe.  That about sums up the argument going on in my head day and night.  It sounds like from your response that you believe values may drop below current values at some point. I have the option to buy it at any time but worried about overpaying for it now as prices seem a bit inflated. Of course there is the possibility the value will continue to increase or stabilize and never drop.

That is the million dollar question.

Originally posted by @Theresa Harris :

It isn't just about property values, but also interest rates.  If you find something where the numbers work, buy it now.  Why wait 10 years in case it might go down a bit when you can buy it now and rent it out?  

Figure out how much you'd make each month along with your tenant paying down your mortgage over 10 years and ask if the prices will drop by that much and interest rates remain so low...unlikely.

 

Thanks Theresa,  

Good point about the interest. This would be my primary residence and I wouldn't necessarily have to wait 10 years, I could buy at anytime. I guess with current interest rates it might make sense to buy now. I'm just concerned I could lock in now and in a few years from now the value drops 10%.

Of curse that assumes that values are over inflated and may come down.  If not, then it's a mute point and the time to buy is now I guess.

Originally posted by @Ed M. :
Thanks Theresa,  

Good point about the interest. This would be my primary residence and I wouldn't necessarily have to wait 10 years, I could buy at anytime. I guess with current interest rates it might make sense to buy now. I'm just concerned I could lock in now and in a few years from now the value drops 10%.

If it will be your primary residence, similar questions.  How much are you pay in rent right now vs what you'd pay if you owned.  Also you are paying down your mortgage, not your landlord's.  While it isn't always the case, in many cases the difference between rent vs mortgage is minimal.   

For me personally, I can't imagine not owning a home in part because when I retire, I don't want to have to pay for rent and I want the security of knowing I won't have to move unless I want to.

@Joe Villeneuve

I love your responses, they really drive the point home.

Have you ever watched The Office? Dwight says Micheal gave him great advice once, K.I.S.S. - Keep It Simple Stupid - great advice, hurts every time.

Originally posted by @Theresa Harris :

Originally posted by @Ed M.:
Thanks Theresa,  

Good point about the interest. This would be my primary residence and I wouldn't necessarily have to wait 10 years, I could buy at anytime. I guess with current interest rates it might make sense to buy now. I'm just concerned I could lock in now and in a few years from now the value drops 10%.

If it will be your primary residence, similar questions.  How much are you pay in rent right now vs what you'd pay if you owned.  Also you are paying down your mortgage, not your landlord's.  While it isn't always the case, in many cases the difference between rent vs mortgage is minimal.   

For me personally, I can't imagine not owning a home in part because when I retire, I don't want to have to pay for rent and I want the security of knowing I won't have to move unless I want to.

 

Also good points. I'm just trying to follow the investment rule "you make your money when you buy". I am comfortable buying now as long as I don't feel like I'm overpaying due to the current market.  I guess it comes down to how much equity would I have already built compared to savings on any future price drop.